Translated material
Tskhinval near Donetsk
How the military atmosphere around the Donbass will change after the recognition of the “DPR” and “LPR”. The discussion of military experts of "New" about scenarios for the development of the conflict of Russia and Ukraine
From the editorial office
Events around the recognition of Russia “LPR” and “DPR” aggravated to the limit about how the situation in eastern Ukraine will develop in the future. There are two polar points of view. According to one of them, now almost inevitably open military confrontation between Russia and Ukraine. Another position is that Russia needs control over the territories and boundaries of the republics recognized by it, without further escalation. The “new” gave the floor to its two military observers - Pavel Felgenhauer and Valery Shiryaev - each of which explains why this or that hypothesis of the development of the confrontation of the two countries is closest to the truth.
Putin’s decision is officially recognized by the “DPR” and “LPR”, having concluded military assistance agreements with them, will significantly change the military situation on the contact line in the Donbass and generally around Ukraine in the near future.
New Gazeta talked about these changes with our sources. Almost all of them agree that although the APU has always had plans for the offensive on Donetsk and Lugansk, in recent months there have been no serious signs of preparation for a decisive offensive. Probably, the decision to recognize the separatists was made under the influence of other circumstances hidden from the public.
Among our interlocutors there are those who directly organized the defense system of South Ossetia at the end of the 2008 war, the main element of which was the Russian military base. New experts suggest that the Russian units on the territory of the DPR and LPR will have similar functions. In the meantime, we decided to tell you that it is changing the entry of Russian troops in a purely military configuration in the Donbass and around it, what tasks they can fulfill and what they are faced with in a situation that you can’t call the maneuvers in any way.
More recently, one of the experts so commented on the multi -month movements of the Russian troops and equipment along Ukrainian borders: “I think that the recently there is a search for a decision to prevent Kiev’s blow to the Donbass. Our military maneuvers from this series ... Donetsks are not able to stop the Armed Forces on their own. Our intervention is apparently blocked. But there is a search for prevention ... There is no solution to the problem yet. ”
Well, the rapid recognition of the “republics”, followed by the commissioning of Russian troops (the Federation Council has already agreed on the use of the army there) testifies: the decision was found. Really,
The presence of units of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation in the rebellious territory of the rebellious territory guarantees the existence of two pseudo -republics. This is a purely military decision of purely military fears.
However, it will inevitably entail the most serious political and economic problems for Russia itself and its citizens. Moreover, the whole severity of such a decision can become obvious only over time. Is there a military decision of all future costs that Putin personally decided to personally? Experts will evaluate the total results of a recent meeting of the Security Council of the Russian Federation in the coming weeks.
For more details about the views in the Moscow Region and the Kremlin, which led to the current situation, Vladimir Denisov, a military intelligence veteran, ex-deputy secretary of the Security Council of the Russian Federation told:
“The military-political leadership was convinced that an offensive operation was being prepared on the part of the Armed Forces. However, it has always been prepared throughout the line of contact with all the ministers of the defense of Ukraine since 2015. Therefore, it is an eternal source of tension. One way or another, this action for Putin is a preventive step.
Well, now Kyiv is confronted with the fact that you have to fight with the Armed Forces of Russia. The presence in the contract with the DPR and the LPR of the paragraph on military assistance prevents the military operation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Perhaps this will stop there. But if you believe Putin’s statements at the Federation Council, it looks like part of a more extensive plan. He recalled that it was not for nothing that Suvorov took Ochakov - there is a NATO marine control center there today.
And in general, all the guilty people in Odessa are known in Odessa and will be punished. By the way, there is near Transnistria and Gagauzia. Even
The question of which boundaries were recognized by the DPR and the LPR did not receive an accurate answer, leaving cowardly space for doubt and vibrations. He built such a verbal intervention. ”
As for the role of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation “on Earth” in new military-political layouts, it is such. According to the same Denisov, “on the Ukrainian side of the contact line, there are two calculated army corps of the brigade composition of the Armed Forces combined into a single regional command. In composition, this is an army, an operational association. I consider it right to focus on the figure named at the Suhigu Security Council - 59 thousand army men without the National Guard, auxiliary units and nationalists battalions. So that the enemy does not even have thoughts, the modern army does not need to put a soldier to a soldier, a tank against the tank. ”
The task of the 1st and 2nd army corps “DPR” and “LPR” in the future configuration of troops is to exhaust the Armed Forces in defensive battles, force it to introduce the second echelons prematurely, and inflict maximum fire defeat. If this succeeds, the militia may not worry about the reserves: the Russian troops will cope with this task and go to any line. The Russian group on the borders of the “DPR” and “LPR” will help to maintain the defense and apply a counterattack with all boilers and borders, if possible, without crossing the line of distinction between the pseudo -republics and the territory of Ukraine itself.
It was this role (the operational reserve of the command in the rear, in Russian territory) was entrusted with past plans for the so-called 3rd Army Corps of the DPR, which they tried to form in 2016-17 in the area of Novocherkassk with the use of Russian volunteers and residents of pseudo-republics who found work and refuge in the Rostov region. The undertaking expected a complete fiasco: there were no people who wanted to sign up in new parts on the proposed conditions. In the case of the use of such a scheme (Russian units as a reserve instead of the failed 3rd corps) direct contact between the Armed Forces and the RF Armed Forces in the peace period can be avoided. With local outbreaks of armed struggle in certain areas, it will be sufficient to support the militias of the EMB, long -range means of defeat and aviation.
Quite serious forces and means of fire influence at the disposal of the Russian army are able to reduce the formal norms of the ratio of manpower of the RF Armed Forces and the Armed Forces of Ukraine. “These are systems of volley, missile weapons and long -range artillery. The two brigades of the Iskander, the Smerch RZO and the aircraft can take on significant tasks, releasing people.
Remote mining today can be chopped by several compounds. At the same time, no one will die if he stands still.
This is only one of the tools, ”Denisov notes.
The difference in the quality of weapons and motivation that will appear after the placement of Russian units there will play a very significant role. The most modern army communications systems and electronic warfare are operating at distances up to 400 km. The operational depth in the Donbass is calculated by several tens of kilometers. There is no point in starting powerful systems there.
However, it all depends on the frequencies. In order to hide the actions of tactical units, it is necessary to put the means of electronic warfare in a depth of 4-6 km from the contact line. Light drones, and these are, first of all, intelligence and target designations with a radius of up to 30 km will also have to be kept in the territory of the DPR and LPR.
Among military specialists and “patriotic bloggers”, a lively discussion of the consequences of the living contact of Russian and Ukrainian fighters, as well as the possible death of our military in a long confrontation on the contact line, began. So far, no one predicts serious losses, although in the media plan every death will have a considerable price for the authorities. An experienced military intelligence officer Rustem Klupov spoke like this:
“As for the possible death of the Russian military with the actions of Ukrainian intelligence and sabotage groups that are deeply entering the territory of the DPR and the LPR, emotions are useless here. Yes, they warn about such an opportunity. But the main role of the RDG in the modern war is intelligence, target designation, hidden sabotage. She is viable until the first clash.
As soon as the scout begins to fight in the rear of the enemy, he instantly turns into an infantryman surrounded. This is the failure of a combat mission. At the same time, I do not exclude losses among the Russian troops. But they will have other reasons. ”
Vladimir Denisov also expressed a similar opinion: “It is forbidden to introduce the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation and the Armed Forces of Ukraine in direct contact, it is absolutely inappropriate. The Donetsk corps will remain where they are standing, and this is enough to conduct shootings and reflect small sorties, if someone is now needed. ”
In total, according to the operational-tactical standards for successful actions in defense (against the Armed Forces) on 400 km of the front, you need to have up to 10 divisions, that is, almost two armies. How the military jokes - letters. Of course, this primer was written shortly after the Great Patriotic War, and it was originally talking about infantry battalions in it.
Modern methods of war such calculations (40 km per division) are sharply reduced. But
Nobody knows the real number of troops and the nomenclature of weapons, which the General Staff will consider sufficient on the model of the group in South Ossetia.
Judging by the latest statements, Putin does not yet know.
In this case, the holding factor is already a clause on military assistance in contracts with self -proclaimed pseudo -republics. Now, no matter how far the Ukrainian military in the depths of the rebellious defenses are advanced (for example, having reached complete operational surprise), the Kremlin considers itself entitled, pulling up reserves, restore Status Quo by any means and losses. Even the capture of Donetsk and Lugansk will not be considered the victory of the Ukrainian army and that part of society that supports the military way to solve the problem of Donbass.
In the recent past, the main task of the Armed Forces of Ukraine was considered access to the Russian border and the cessation of material and technical supply of rebels. I note that in the confrontation with poorly motivated and not staffed army buildings of the DPR and LPR, such a scenario (at the price of huge losses) was possible under certain conditions. However, the creation in the operational depth of forces for closing boilers for the Armed Forces can be an impossible task.
Border blocking is a key question, around it the whole complex of contradictions was formed in attempts to bring the Minsk agreements.
Separately, we asked our interlocutors two questions: do they believe in the Russian invasion plan to Ukraine according to the well -known scenario of the Biden administration, and do it be possible to use our troops in the hypothetical expansion of the borders of the “DPR” and “LPR” to the administrative borders of the regions according to the map of the administrative division of Ukraine. They all answered in jointly to the first question, we will give the opinion of Rustem Klupov, the former chief of intelligence of the Ground Forces of the Russian Federation: “In the war according to the script of the Biden administration - with the capture of Kyiv, Odessa and half of Ukraine - I do not believe. Those forces and means that Russia should use according to this plan is absolutely not enough. And in reality, we do not have them either. In this case, you will have to strongly stretch the operation in time, and from a military point of view, this is pure suicide. ”
But the question of using the Russian army to expand the rebellious territories in battles with Ukrainians caused noticeable fluctuations in experts. From a purely military point of view, this is possible, but such solutions are considered a gross error of planning: it will be necessary to advance in the conditions of numerical superiority of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and even the full advantage in the air and ether does not guarantee from very high losses. And human losses are no only military, but also political, and from the most important ones. It is easy to notice that all over the past years, the Russian army has been trying to conduct hostilities with minimal losses. Thus, everything rests in the degree of determination of one single person.