This is a war! Special issue of the program "Archeology"

Russia's invasion of Ukraine is discussed by Andrei Kolesnikov, Gleb Pavlovsky, Alexander Morozov, Lev Gudkov

Sergey Medvedev: On February 24, Russia began an armed invasion of Ukraine , bombing of Ukrainian cities. A full -scale war is unleashed. The day before, President Putin announced the beginning of a special operation against Ukraine ; According to him, Russia wants to achieve the demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine. In fact, this, of course, is military aggression.

There are already reports of the first victims among the civilians in Ukraine and the first losses of the Russian troops.

Our first guest is Andrei Kolesnikov , the head of the program "Russian domestic policy and political institutions" of the Moscow Center of Carnegie . Andrey, unkind morning.

Andrey Kolesnikov: Unkind.

Sergey Medvedev: I admit, until the last I did not believe in the possibility of the beginning of a “hot” phase of confrontation. Of course, the war has been going on for eight years, but I have not been waiting for such a scale of invasion. Have you expected?

Andrey Kolesnikov: The expectation of war in recent months has become constant. But nearby there was hope for the rationality of the Russian side, primarily Putin, because it was in recent months that we all became convinced that he alone makes the final decisions. The hopes for Putin's rationality were weak, since there was already annexation of Crimea, and this is an emotional, not a rational decision. Its consequences were clear. Now the consequences will be even more serious, and you can calculate what economic strikes can be on their own population, because what is happening is, first of all, of course, “Voronezh’s bombing”, taking into account their population.

Sergey Medvedev: We already see the collapse of the Russian market by 34%, the dollar has already reached 90, the euro - above 100 .

This is, first of all, Voronezh's Bombing, taking into account their population

Andrei Kolesnikov: It turns out that the rational part of Putin did not work. This button refuses the moments when he discusses history, ideology, about how he offended him, and in his face - the Russian people. And all this, as it turned out, works for war.

Sergey Medvedev: The Second World War has now returned in the form of Russian missile strikes in the cities of Ukraine. The denazification of Ukraine is not a propaganda video, these are the words of the President of Russia, after which rocket shells begin.

Andrei Kolesnikov: This is an amazing thesis, but it was also used for a very long time since the Maidan, when the whole Russian propaganda convinced the population that the Nazis, Benderes on the other side, and they seized power in Ukraine. This is a completely Stalin thesis. When Stalin in 1939 went west in accordance with the secret protocols, the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact , the logic in the performance of Molotov, who justified all this, was as follows: we are going to free our lump brothers.

And now the Ukrainians, the people with us, in the logic of Putin, are under the rule of the junta, and we need to free them (although they did not ask for this) from the current government, legally chosen - in a strange way, in the competitive presidential election. And the essential part of the Russian population, apparently, is taken seriously: demilitarization by war methods, denazification of the one who is not necessary to denact at all.

See also in different parts of the world there are promotions in support of Ukraine

Sergey Medvedev: Putin’s calculation is that after the bombing of Ukrainian cities a regime is staggered, Zelensky will be shot and Ukraine will announce a change in their foreign policy, demilitarization, and the abandonment of plans for joining NATO?

Andrei Kolesnikov: This is the most difficult question that is not a clear answer, because the goal -setting is practically absent here. No one attacked Russia. Ukraine was not going to do this. Russia has become an aggressor in relation to Ukraine, and not vice versa. Another thesis of propaganda is that the West needs weak Russia. Nothing of the kind! The West needs a calm, prosperous, not thinking about its imperial complexes, Russia, which is developing, selling, drinking wine and freely moves around the world. These are all the personal complexes of one person who thinks about the world in the genre of “picket vests” that embodied in state policy: one of the most difficult cases in world history.

Andrey Kolesnikov

The task of at least was, as it seemed to me, to force the West to hear Putin, so that he would satisfy his psychological complex, which he himself spoke about many times (that he is not equal to other Western leaders). Western leaders themselves came to him, broke him. It seemed that at this stage this was enough. Then came the stage of recognition of the independence of the “DPR” and “LPR” - as a provocation, an excuse, a “fake flag” for the invasion. Allegedly, the Ukrainians put the LPR and the DPR under the risk of being fired at the risk of invasion. Of course, there was none of this. Invaded. And the recognition of independence extends to the entire territory of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions, and not just to the one that is in fact captured by separatists. So, on the border of these areas, the army should stop. Then why do we hear reports that the attack on Ukraine goes from Belarus and Crimea? These lands seemed to not enter the plan.

Sergey Medvedev: Aerodromes are bombed, as we understand.

Andrey Kolesnikov: Yes. At the same time, civic infrastructure also perishes, unfortunately, there will be human sacrifices. Military infrastructure is easy to restore using the same NATO. In fact, trying to avoid conflict with NATO, Russia itself begs for this conflict. Of course, NATO was not going to fight with Russia and is unlikely to help Ukraine, of course, will be and will quickly restore its military potential.

Sergey Medvedev: What can you wait for in Russia itself? Will there be some kind of dull position, special measures to control the media, the Internet?

No one attacked Russia. Russia has become an aggressor in relation to Ukraine, and not vice versa

Andrei Kolesnikov: Any invasion entails frost in the country itself. After the invasion of Prague in 1968, there were long political frosts, the final curtailing of economic reforms. In 1979, Afghanistan also did not bring anything good to the citizens, the most dull time began in the postponed story. And now, I think, various measures to tighten the nuts are also possible, although the nuts have already been twisted in an incredible way. You can introduce some new laws, emergency, frank censorship of the media and, most importantly, social networks and YouTube, through which points of view that are still opposite to the state. I think this pressure will be. And it will be very good if the boundaries do not close and the right to freedom of movement will remain behind the Russians.

Sergey Medvedev: The authorities demanded that the Russian media use only official information about the invasion of Ukraine, that is, we are already faced with the introduction of military censorship.

Our next guest is political analyst Alexander Morozov , an employee of Karlov University in Prague .

Is it possible to understand this that this whole series of visits by Western leaders to Moscow did not lead to Putin satisfying the result, and after that it was decided to start aggression?

Alexander Morozov: I would believe that Putin made the final decision as a result of what he saw at the Munich Security Conference. The possibility of diplomacy of various directions was still preserved. And it was clearly visible that at a meeting of the Security Council, which Putin showed us, his immediate environment did not know about the final decision. All infrastructure was prepared for the invasion, but this could be used or not used. I think Putin saw the great success of the President of Zelensky at the Munich Conference, where it became obvious that the countries of the West support Ukraine and Putin’s pressure does not lead to anything, and in this place he decided on a monstrous step.

Any invasion entails frost in the country itself

Sergey Medvedev: Was this connected with Zelensky’s hint that Ukraine is able to raise the question of the possession of nuclear weapons?

Alexander Morozov: Putin's menacing rhetoric and preparation for strength actions began long before the President of Zelensky mentioned the Budapest memorandum . Prior to this, Putin with the same rhetoric acted regarding the expansion of NATO. Everyone understood that the question of Ukraine’s entry into NATO in the foreseeable time was not worth it, and Putin disputed this. The rhetoric of Zelensky relative to the Budapest memorandum was exactly the same moment. It was clear to everyone that this was only a form of appeal to the West for further support, and not at all the intention of Ukraine to dence the Budapest Memorandum. It is clear that this is impossible. And even moreover, not to Zelensky, it is necessary to assign responsibility for the Kremlin began this nightmare military operation, which finally puts an end to the entire post -Soviet transit for Russia, and not only for Russia.

Sergey Medvedev: What is the qualitative difference between the annexation of Crimea and the beginning of a military operation is already against the whole of Ukraine?

Alexander Morozov: This is a tremendous difference. The Kremlin over these seven to eight years has completely changed the strategy. If then it was about a hybrid war in which the Kremlin hid its authorship ("green men", "polite people", links to various proxy-lines that allegedly do all this), now we have a direct aggression in which the Russian armed forces and other power structures of the Kremlin participate.

The second point is aggression aimed not only at the capture of the second part of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions. In the last day, Putin’s speeches emphasize that the junta in Ukraine: perhaps the goal of capturing the political leadership of Ukraine or the desire to bring this aggression to the situation in which the government in Kyiv will be overthrown by the hands of the Kremlin’s military machine.

See also "20 years went to this." Social networks about Russia's attack on Ukraine

Sergey Medvedev: What is the final goal of the Kremlin? Change of mode? The coercion of Ukraine to recognize the annexation of Crimea, Donetsk and Lugansk regions, the rejection of all eastern Ukraine? Or, as Napoleon said, "first we get involved, and then we will see what will happen"?

Alexander Morozov: As a result of the resistance of the Ukrainian army and the population, the script on which Putin is based can change. But if the political and military leadership conducts such a planned operation, then it has a planned result, and it is concluded in in one form or another to change the regime in Kyiv.

Sergey Medvedev: And to achieve the foreign policy "Finlandization" of Ukraine?

Alexander Morozov: It is difficult to call "Finlandization."

Sergey Medvedev: Identify part of the territory, to achieve talked status, demilitarization, obedient foreign policy.

Alexander Morozov: None of these goals are unrealized. Even if the strategic target in the Kremlin is formulated, then actions lead to the right -handed one. Unlike those times when “Finlandization” was possible, Russia will be convicted of these actions to absolutely the whole world, the entire composition of the UN. It will be impossible to ensure that the rest of the countries recognize the military change of regime in Ukraine. Thus, the Kremlin will plunge into full isolation, into colossal sanctions and will not provide any safety at its western borders. On the contrary, it is obvious that with such actions of the country of the European Union, NATO (and not only) will strengthen the security flank here. Putin with these steps not only calls Ukraine to the fight, but also challenges the whole Western world, the NATO alliance. So, we must be prepared for the fact that at the next stage ... And Putin does not hide this, he made it clear with his launches of strategic missiles before the start of this operation and his rhetoric, that he threatens all those who want to somehow influence the conflict.

It was evident that at the Security Council the immediate environment of Putin did not know about the final decision

Sergey Medvedev: His morning message contains an undisguised threat of using nuclear weapons in relation to those who want to intervene on the side of Ukraine.

Alexander Morozov: Therefore, this cannot end with any "finlandization". Before us is a large -scale conflict that affects all countries, and here we may be moved to a very terrible scenario.

Sergey Medvedev: That is, to the war with the West. How do you assume the answer from the West in the coming days?

Alexander Morozov: There will be not just a package of sanctions, but a large -scale list of measures of economic, financial and political isolation of Russia. This will affect everything - finances, and movement, and assets outside the country that will be arrested and frozen. And there is no doubt that the West will put the question before part of the Russian elite whether she wants to stop and take some step in order to stop it.

Alexander Morozov

In a very close horizon, military measures are inevitable because the Kremlin will not be able to complete its military operation quickly and the way it wants. The Kremlin counts on Blitzkrieg, but the impression is that the blitzkrieg will not work here, despite the frightening artillery preparation, missile strikes and the beginning of the movement of ground equipment. And if this does not work out, then, one way or another, in two days there will be a massacre that will raise the question of one form or another of the military response from the Western countries. Yes, today everyone unanimously says that the West will not do this, but let's see what will happen in four to five days.

Sergey Medvedev: In any case, it is obvious that there will be massive support by military equipment and advisers.

The elites, the regime are ready for the Iranian scenario - for such isolation, for total sanctions, to the besieged fortress?

Alexander Morozov: Some part of the elite is ready: she swore and is going to swim to the bottom of the story with Vladimir Putin. But at the same time, so many people in large cities, the Russian leadership of the middle level now has the same mood as many of us: the feeling of a nightmare, pondering the consequences of what is happening, because it affects people's lives for a long time. Everyone perfectly understands what extent there will be the consequences not only between Russia and Ukraine, but also between Russia and the whole West. This will affect the life of every family. How are our colleagues in Russian media, in some entertainment talk shows will go on the air on Saturday and Sunday, how to joke here when we are on the threshold of complete military madness and threats with a nuclear blow?

Sergey Medvedev: with us Lev Gudkov , scientific director of the Levada Center (entered in the register of "foreign agents").

The Kremlin will not be able to complete their military operation quickly and the way he wants

We discuss the possible reaction of Russian society to the beginning of hostilities. How great is the support of the war?

Lev Gudkov: We can talk about a very high degree of fear of the war, the reluctance of the war. The fear of war has reached maximum values for the entire time of our measurements. 72% of Russians are afraid of war, do not want it. At the same time, aggressive lying demagogy somewhat raised Putin's rating. The first reaction, I think, will be an increase in his support, approval. So far, people have not realized either the depth or the drama of what was happening, or the tragedy that would follow. The fact that we are dealing with a crime of the state, an undoubted thing for me and many of my colleagues, but in the mass consciousness this thought will be established only after some very sooner time.

See also a survey: 50% of Russians supported the operation in Ukraine

Sergey Medvedev: Apparently, now there will be quite high support figures for both the war itself and the actions of the regime?

Lev Gudkov: They will be lower than at the time of the annexation of Crimea, but there will be some kind of consolidation effect. In my opinion, he will be short -lived, because people really do not want war and do not see reasons for her. Anti -Ukrainian pumping does not significantly affect the state of the masses. I think that after a certain state of uncertainty and delay, the attitude will be more differentiated and clear. More educated and young people, the population of the largest cities will clearly be against this war, and this will lead to a decrease in Putin’s support, condemnation, and an increase in discontent. And the conservative poorly educated depressive province, dependent on television, is likely to express nominal verbal approval. Since these people are not included in politics, they do not feel either their responsibility or the connection of their position with what is happening. More informed groups with great social capital, of course, are horrified by what is happening, understand the consequences of this. This is the approximation of the disaster. The whole policy of recent months is contrary to the national interests of Russia. This is an obviously anti -national policy.

Sergey Medvedev: How is the population ready to buy anti -fascist rhetoric? In Putin’s night statement, I was most shocked by the fact that this is undertaken with the aim of not only demilitarization, but also the denazification of Ukraine.

Lev Gudkov

Lev Gudkov: To a very large extent is ready to buy. This is the main mechanism for supporting anti -Ukrainian policy. When in 2013 we began to interview people in connection with the events on the Maidan, 75% were against the introduction of troops, anti -Ukrainian actions, believing that the course on the integration of Ukraine with the European Union and NATO was the internal business of Ukraine itself. Only 22% said that it should be prevented by any means, including the military. But starting from January-February 2014, propaganda began to use the language of World War II, the fight against fascism, arguing that a coup dump and paid by the United States had occurred in Ukraine, Ukrofashists came to power, and this posed a threat to the Russian genocide in the east of the country.

All these arguments are repeated both in the present speech and the president and all the speakers. It works, and there are no other motives, except for the "fight against fascism", here. This is a very serious mechanism, it affects the key moments of the national identity of Russians in the fight against fascism, pride in victory in 1945. To what extent these structures of consciousness are weakened, now it is difficult to speak. It seems to me that they are a little weakened, and people are not very ready to buy for this, at least not everyone is ready. But still, I think, percent for 60, this demagogy is significant, and they will respond to this topic.

Sergey Medvedev: Are people ready for sacrifices for the sake of war and such a noble cause as the "salvation of the Donbass"? Are they ready for economic victims, falling living standards, sanctions, closed borders, to human victims, finally?

The fear of war has reached maximum meanings: 72% of Russians are afraid of war, do not want it

Lev Gudkov: We still record a decrease in the significance of such propaganda. The willingness to incorporate the Donbass to Russia decreased from about 65–70% at the end of 2014-early 2015 to 26% today. People do not understand that they will have to pay very much for this, and in a variety of ways, not only a decrease in the standard of living, so at some point the desire to answer the Putin rhetoric to provide independence to the Donbass, not including it in Russia: people believed that this could suspend the threat of war.

Sergey Medvedev: There will be no same euphoria as in 2014, the same champagne that will bubble for several more years?

Lev Gudkov: No. All this is perceived with extreme alertness and anxiety, and by a variety of groups of the population. The support of Putin and all this policy will clearly be much lower and to some extent forced. It cannot be very long.

Sergey Medvedev: The political scientist Gleb Pavlovsky joined us. What can you say about your forecasts?

Gleb Pavlovsky: I don't like forecasts at all. I saw the mighty generators of Blef and Fake-Nous, these information capsules that fired at each other, and I think that this is one of the factors that led to the war. This frivolous attitude to reality eventually led to what we see. Was it serious about Zelensky (in my opinion, stupid) about the return of nuclear status to Ukraine? Of course, now we can say that I also did not expect this crazy war, from which Russia could not get out of the winner in any way - this is the problem. And, most likely, now the main bet for Russia will be preserved at the end of this war.

Sergey Medvedev: To remain in a holistic territorial format or preserve as a nation?

Gleb Pavlovsky: I'm talking about the last version of Russia, which has existed for 30 years, and I do not know in what form this system will remain. She entered the war with the whole world, otherwise she does not know how. It seemed to me that the president had some kind of internal brakes, so as not to enter the war with the whole world. No, these brakes burned out, and he entered. Well, now the question is not about him, the question of Russia and, of course, about Ukraine, which experiences monstrous grief through our fault.

Sergey Medvedev: And if you imagine that Ukraine agrees with the loss of Crimea, Donetsk and Lugansk and undertake to take non -block status? After all, then Putin achieves his goals.

Now the main bet for Russia will be preserved at the end of this war

Gleb Pavlovsky: For this, the occupation management, the commandant’s office in Kiev is necessary, but I still do not see applicants for this. Of course, in which case there are such people, but this is unlikely to be a victory. Now not the 45th year. Russia will create a shaky situation, but it will not be able to turn the country that Ukraine is, into the region, territory, training ground, like the Donetsk "republics". This is an impossible task. This did not even succeed in the Soviet Union.

Where is the moment when Russia can say: "We won!"? They can probably capture Zelensky and take him to Moscow in a cage, but it will hardly be like a victory for someone. By the way, because Russia threw its allies into the furnace and that is interesting. After all, not a single CSTO country recognizes either these unfortunate regions, or even more so what is being done in Ukraine. We undermined loyalty, not to mention fidelity, our own military allies! Look, even Lukashenko twisted his tail: he no longer recognizes anyone, he no longer participates in the operation! This is a lie, of course, but it is laid for the future.

See the United States also impose new sanctions against Russia because of Ukraine

Sergey Medvedev: Is this an absolutely irrational, spontaneous decision adopted in recent days following the results of the visits of Western leaders and the Munich performance of Zelensky? Or is it a completely dark, deep, htonic power of the Russian subconscious?

Gleb Pavlovsky: This year was htonic. And the last months have been absolutely htonic, because the states and partly Europe bombarded Moscow with various kinds of fakes, instead of resolving the issue of peace, still get Moscow and Kyiv to sit down at the table. Now they say that this is impossible. Why, actually? Such things have been many times. The problem is that all this hton eventually shot in one person. After all, we saw that at the Council of Council he went against his neighboring circle. It is interesting to observe these people, at least half of whom considers this decision madness, so they trembled and let the snot tremble there: they were afraid, realizing what this would lead to.

Gleb Pavlovsky

But hardly anyone knows what it will lead to now. We are at the very beginning of the Russian operation, but the war, as the Clausewitz taught, never leads to the result that is planned at the beginning. He talked about the fog of war. Here we are now in the fog of the war that had begun. And then, when the fog dissipates after a while (a small one, I think), the countertime will begin - at first the sanctions that will be introduced by the package behind the bag, every time looking, whether the painful blow and from which side it is better to strengthen it. That is, in the near future we will no longer leave the chain of wars, crises, car and punishment.

Sergey Medvedev: This is actually an endgame of the regime. That is, a peaceful solution, there is no longer a way out of this situation?

Gleb Pavlovsky: There is no way out of the world. By the way, this was said before the start of the war, in my opinion, the French Foreign Ministry: everyone, in Europe, no norms and rules no longer apply. That's right, they do not act in the world now, which means that they will be installed every time AD HOC through the war or a threat to war. The world is different. We will not go back, forget it. And of course, in this new, incomprehensible world there is no longer room for Russia. So, she will have to somehow look for him, and now we can only fantasize about this.

Sergey Medvedev: Is it not the world that Putin has long lusted for so long: the world without rules? Now he overturned all the rules and institutions, we are all in a free flight.

Gleb Pavlovsky: Putin’s paradox is what it turns out now: he himself unnecessarily counted on the strength of this world. What was his tactics so far? Blows on the flanks in the calculation that the frontal blow is impossible. This is a thought from the Cold War. There can be no direct collision of the main forces, so you can beat the flanks, bounce and laugh, but they cannot hit you. He has the mania of nuclear parity, and in this new world it does not work, no one thinks of the concept of nuclear parity. Therefore, the answer will arrive in different types - legal, sanctions, undoubtedly punitive and in the form of blows already on the flanks of Russia. In this sense, we thus lost the normal transit carried out within the country itself. Now Russia will not be out of pressure for a minute, and it will be provided at all stages of transit.

Sergey Medvedev: And this completely mixes all the ideas about the transit of the power of 2024.

Gleb Pavlovsky: Forget about 2024, it will not be. In a sense, it began tonight.

Sergey Medvedev: The real transit of the authorities really occurs before our eyes, including in relation to the Putin elite itself: we saw her confused at the Security Council.

Forget about 2024, it will not be. He began in a sense tonight

I do not have enough words and emotions to describe what I feel when I have to talk about the bombing of Ukrainian cities, about the breakdown of diplomatic relations of Russia and Ukraine, about the possibility of confrontation with the outside world, about scenarios for the use of nuclear weapons! It seems that all anti -utopias begin to come true, all horror films, all books about the hoods. Весь тот кошмар, который скопился в голове одного человека, выплеснулся на улицы, и мы сейчас живем в этом кошмаре.

Хочу вспомнить Бжезинского, который говорил, что Российская империя начинается и кончается на Украине. Украина является тем основным блоком, на котором строится Российская империя. И то, что происходит сейчас, кажется мне заключительным актом не только нынешнего российского режима, но и вообще многосотлетнего существования Российской империи в том виде, в котором мы ее знали. Сохранится, видимо, Россия как государство, сохранится российская нация: я надеюсь, в большей степени гражданская, а не этническая. Но Российская империя сейчас медленно и мучительно умирает у нас на глазах с этими ударами по украинским городам.

Оставайтесь с нами, следите за событиями. И цените ту свободу слова, которую мы пока еще имеем.