“The war is expensive for the Russians. And it will cost even more "

What will happen to the ruble? And with the Russian economy as a whole? Answers Sergey Guriev

On the night of February 27, Western countries announced the introduction of the next package of sanctions. First of all, this is a long -discussed disconnection from SWIFT and freezing assets of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation in the European Union, USA and Canada. Now the Russian Central Bank will not be able to use its international reserves to maintain the stability of the ruble. Medusa talked with economist Sergei Guriev about how it would change the Russian economy.

- The EU, the USA and Canada announced the freezing of the reserves of the Central Bank. It seems that it scared everyone stronger than the disconnection from Swift. How much will it hit us?

- This is very important news, absolutely unexpected, no one knew that this is possible. The presence of reserves was one of the key supports of macroeconomic stability - what will happen tomorrow in the foreign exchange market is difficult to predict. Just because this has never happened.

We enter a situation in which it is difficult to predict how the ruble will behave. Maybe tomorrow there will be no trading. Maybe there will be a panic. But this is a huge blow to the ruble. This can be said absolutely for sure.

- Does the reserves of the Central Bank actually actually stored in which country is now affected?

- Yes, it affects. Now some say: it's okay, the Central Bank has still gold and yuan, they can definitely be realized. Also an unobvious moment. Because American sanctions are a very serious mechanism, and not necessarily Chinese banks will want to help the Russian Central Bank, because America can impose a serious punishment for this. This has already happened, this is not a theory. For example, with the French bank BNP Paribas, which violated American sanctions and was forced to pay a multi -billion dollar fine. I can’t imagine that Chinese banks will want to help Russia at this cost.

The situation is completely non -obvious. Will it be possible to realize the golden dozens, as [Mikhail] Bulgakov would say? It is not entirely clear who wants to buy this gold [from the reserves of the Central Bank], at the risk of falling under American sanctions. America can forbid Chinese banks to buy Russian gold and exchange yuan, which the Central Bank has for dollars. And the Russian Central Bank, of course, needs dollars and euros, because most imports of the Russian economy are still Europe. To buy tablets, technologies, food, we need dollars, not yuan.

Can Chinese banks help Russia cope with the lack of dollars or euros is completely incomprehensible. I would not put it on it. I think that, most likely, Chinese banks will say: “Sorry, we are big friends and believe that you are big well done, but because of American sanctions we will not be able to cooperate with you.”

-It will be like some of the crises that Russia has already passed?

- Unknown. It will be harder than in 2014, because there were just reserves-and the Central Bank knew that it could and that it could not. In principle, oil prices are high today. But it is not clear whether Russian oil exporters can sell this oil and get dollars, because they will receive dollars in theory, but in practice: will they be able to transfer them to Russia and sell it somewhere?

All this becomes very complicated. How sanctions will work, no one knows. This was with Iran and North Korea, but Russia is not Iran and North Korea, this is a much more important player. How it will work with Russia, no one knows yet.

- Did Iran and North Korea also freeze reserves?

- They froze, but these were completely different values, and they did not count on them. If you asked me on Friday [February 25], I would tell you: the situation is difficult, Russia will be cut off from technology, Russia will not have economic growth, but Russia will not have a currency crisis, because Russia has huge foreign exchange reserves. Today I can’t say anything, because this was not there before.

- Is the script realized in which the Russians will begin to remove dollar savings?

- Yes, absolutely real. They will be removed so. They will tell you: “You have dollars, but you have no right to withdraw them, you can convert them into rubles at the course established by the state.” Such a scenario is quite possible.

The scenario is real when imports are sharply reduced. It turns out that Russian citizens are not enough dollars or the dollar is very expensive and the Russians cannot afford to buy medicines, because they are not affordable for them.

- Are there any examples for such sanctions to work?

- It works, of course. I will give you an example of Iran. Iran wanted to build his nuclear bomb, sanctions were imposed, Iran went to negotiations and concluded a deal - negotiations. And until Donald Trump, this deal was supported.

Most likely, such strict sanctions will lead to the fact that Vladimir Putin will have to start negotiations on the withdrawal of troops from Ukraine. And the discontent of the citizens will push him to this. I would not put my money for the fact that tomorrow grateful citizens will come out with posters: “Thank you, Vladimir Vladimirovich for the fact that the ruble is much cheaper than last week. We support the war against the fraternal people. ” There will be no such rallies tomorrow. Sooner or later, he will have to go to negotiations.

- If Putin goes to negotiations and withdraw troops, what awaits the Russian economy?

- The main question is exactly what sanctions will be canceled. But I can't tell you anything good. Because the precedent itself, which happened, suggests that in Russia something is possible that they did not expect before. In this sense, I’m not sure that all the sanctions will be lifted, and most importantly-I’m not sure that there will be a sharp inflow of investment, because Western investors will think: “I will invest in Russia now, and then Vladimir Putin will come up with something new, and I will lose everything.”

- Are there any options for tightening existing sanctions?

-I can tell you a lot of things, but I will not be so that I do not seem that I am telling some ideas to people who impose sanctions against Russia. One thing I can say: an embargo for the export of Russian oil can be introduced. If you asked me two days ago, I would say: this is impossible. Now we see that everything is possible.

- When can this happen and how will it replace it?

- It will be replaced by the expansion of the production of shale oil in America. Vladimir Putin will try to sell Russian oil to China and simply receive a lower price for this. But I do not think it will need it. I think that there are already so many today's sanctions that Vladimir Putin has a lot of incentives for negotiations. Although I would not predict anything.

- Swift disconnect against this background, apparently, is lost?

- Swift is an important symbolic story. Because everyone talked about the shutdown of SWIFT as a key step, a watershed. Everyone said that this was impossible. And now it is already possible. Although from my point of view, the sanctions against the Central Bank are much more painful than the Swift shutdown, the shutdown itself shows that what was considered too terrible yesterday is discussed and implemented today.

- Another serious sanction is a ban on export of high technology to Russia. What will he lead to?

- Russia will not have prospects for technological development. Everything that Russia wants to do in the technological field depends on cooperation with other countries. This is not alone in this. China also cannot do anything only by itself. And America. IPhones are not produced only in America. There is a simple fact: the most modern microchips are produced in Taiwan. Taiwan joined the sanctions. This means that the development of technology in Russia will stop.

- What Putin was counting on, starting the war, knowing that we are so dependent on other countries?

- It is difficult to judge, but probably thought that the West would not decide on such serious sanctions. Secondly, he believed that the war would be completed very quickly and everyone would be set before this fact. Why impose sanctions if everything has already ended? But it happened differently. Western leaders felt deceived, Western society-which was very important-saw that 1939 came again, they know that after 1939 the 1940, 1941, 1945, and nobody wants to. And Western society demanded decisive measures from its governments.

-The West, imposing such sanctions, risks something? Russia can stop gas supply?

- The West is ready for this, discusses quite seriously. The West knows that it depends on gas less than Russia depends on gas supplies.

That is why today Vladimir Putin did not say that he would stop gas supplies and Europeans will heat with firewood. He said : we have nuclear weapons. Everyone is afraid of this. That is why Western soldiers will not fight on Ukrainian land. However, we must remember the statement of the French Minister of Foreign Affairs [Jean-Ivan] Le Drian, who said: “Do not forget that NATO is a nuclear alliance.” But the price of life in the West is very high, no one wants a nuclear war. Everyone hopes that there will be enough economic measures.

“Do you think there will be enough of them?”

- I think yes. I gave you an example of Iran. Of course, it is quite possible that Vladimir Putin will continue the war. But there is still an important factor - the Ukrainian people continue to resist. Without his heroic protection of his country, economic sanctions would not be enough.

- What can be advised to ordinary Russians in this situation?

- The war is expensive for the Russians and will cost even more. It is necessary to stop the war. This is what I can say. I live abroad and cannot give advice to my fellow citizens who live in Russia. But I admire the courage of those who publicly speak out against the war and go to anti -war rallies.