What to do now?

7 simple considerations about personal economics

1. The crisis, which, like a tidal wave, rolls on the Russian economy, has political reasons. Therefore, it will be more difficult to cope with it with purely economic measures. Economists think in the category “twice two to four”, politicians can think that twice two to five. But you can’t deceive mathematics - unlike people. I must say, this crisis was not sudden, as in other years. You were warned for a long time. You did not believe it. What to do now?

2 . First you need to understand that the exit from the crisis will be paid by your money, as always. Why so? To create a product, you need to have capital and work. Russian capital has risen in price, the price of Russian products did not increase, which means that labor should be cheaper. Throughout its history, the Russian economy responded to a crisis with a decrease in people's income, and then waited for a new capital to increase prices for its goods. The only exception was in 2008, when the authorities supported the income of people, and the crisis quickly ended. But that experience is recognized as unsuccessful, and now it will not be repeated. The reasons are clear: there is not enough money in the authorities.

3 . Where did the money go? The authorities have already shown that it is most concerned about in the current economic situation: the size of foreign exchange earnings. If there was enough money, no one would forbid to export dollars and pay for imported consumer goods.

And since it is prohibited or limit it, it means that there is not enough money. And since there will be no imported consumer goods, it means that prices will increase soon.

4. How much will prices increase? Bankers have already answered this question when they raised a bet on deposits to 20% and even higher. Russian bankers are experienced and cautious people, they do not like to pay interest on deposits above inflation. Different goods will rise in different ways. But deposits are a guide. The authorities do not want you to carry money to stores, and bankers offer to save it at 20%. Decide - depending on what you want to buy with this money later. It may be that it is precisely what you wanted to buy that prices will increase by more than 20%. Not only the growth of the dollar, but also the lack of goods will influence the increase in prices. Consumer brands have already begun to leave Russia. The story of Apple technology is only the beginning. Cars and clothing "leave". When they tell you that instead of European cars, Chinese will be brought, is it worth it to believe? Why not? Maybe Chinese. Only sell them at European prices. And even more expensive.

Where will you go? Nothing personal, only business. No competition - prices will be higher. Will we drive Russian cars? Yes, but Russian cars have already risen in price and will be more expensive. Manufacturers will need to compensate for the costs of leaving suppliers, a breakdown of the usual production and logistics chains, and reimburse the costs of the ruble devaluation. In addition, first of all, Russian manufacturers will have to engage in not cars, but by freight - the supply of Russian cities depends on it. It is possible to replace the left goods and services somewhere, but in any case it will take time. In the meantime, we will have to prepare for the deficit. What to do? Buy something, as you think, will not do in the near future. It is too late to draw up a consumer loan - but if you have a credit card, it makes sense to use it.

5 . Should I buy food? Yes, the products will be more expensive - for the same reasons as the goods. But think about how many cans of stew and condensed milk and pasta bags can you stock up and will there be enough for a long time? Much more important than food would be to “stock up” with opportunities for work.

6 . It will be difficult with work - no matter what officials say. No support measures promised by the authorities will solve a key problem - a decrease in economic activity. Plus, the departure from Russia of Western companies and brands will respond with a chain of dismissal of excess personnel and a reduction in salaries for everyone who will remain in the workplace.

Even if you were not fired and did not reduce your salary - you can buy with this money less than a few days ago.

What to do? Search for all your friends who can help you with work. And if you can help someone yourself, do it. Personal ties and professional reputation are the main thing that can help you with work today and in the near future.

7 . Who can be believed in this situation? First of all, to yourself. No boss will take responsibility for you and your loved ones. It is clear that they will tell you that everything is in order and you just have to wait a bit. It cannot be otherwise: any banker or minister will say that everything is fine, he has such a job. You can believe who you like more and what you want more. This is fine. Only before making a decision, remember: you will be responsible for it too. Rely on yourself and your personal experience.

And the last. Since the current economic crisis, as I said, has political reasons, it can also be resolved in political means. And everything will be fine.