The country is a game

Sergey Khestanov, Dmitry Gudkov, Nikolai Petrov: How will the sanctions hit Russia?

Sergey Medvedev: After the attack on Ukraine, Russia was subjected to unprecedented sanctions. Most of the state reserve in Western banks are frozen, payment systems are disabled, sports and cultural relations are torn. Russia is subjected to visa blockade, in transport, diplomatic, financial and economic isolation. How will the sanctions hit the Russians, on the elites, on the stability of the regime? How to live in a country-rogue?

Our first guest is Sergey Hestanov , an adviser for macroeconomics of the general director "Opening Investment" . The sanctions are unprecedented both on Russian history, on world scale, and on the totality of those measures applied at the same time?

Sergey Khestanov: On the one hand, yes, and on the other hand, nothing new happens in comparison with the late USSR.

Sergey Medvedev: What can you compare the current sanctions with? Maybe with Iran?

Sergey Kheestanov: Russian oil and gas exports are not yet limited in any way.

Sergey Medvedev: Is there an embargo for the export of hydrocarbons and in general Russian raw materials now? Can the West do without Russian gas and titanium?

Real income will be sharply reduced, poverty will increase even more

Sergey Kheestanov: The level of filling in European underground gas storage facilities is only a few percent lower than a long trend. Therefore, some tension is present, but taking into account the weather factor, this heating season will already knowingly will be passed without significant problems. With Titan, certain difficulties will be, but here Russia is not a monopolist, and if necessary, consumers will find other suppliers.

Sergey Medvedev: Elvira Nabiullina at the meeting of the State Duma is now coming to Black. How sensitive is this blow to state reserves? Is there really almost half of almost 700 billion state reserves that the authorities are so proud of are now frozen in Western banks, and Russia remained with gold, yuan and what is in it?

Sergey Khestanov: Yes, from half to two -thirds of international reserves, it may be frozen. The return move is interesting: the Russian Central Bank instructed the brokers to suspend all the securities that non -residents own. Legally, this is a suspension, but de facto is a variety of frosts, and the amount of funds that correspond to these securities are approximately twice as much as the volume of frozen international reserves.

Sergey Medvedev: That is, it is hundreds of billions of dollars?

Sergey Khestanov: Yes!

Sergey Medvedev: What awaits the macroeconomic situation? Will we see further the untied exchange rate of the dollar and the euro? Does the Central Bank have money for foreign exchange interventions?

Sergey Hestanov

Sergey Khestanov: From the point of view of public finance, everything is fine. Russia has a surplus budget for the past year. Despite frost, there are quite large international reserves. A positive trade balance, despite all the outflow of capital, a positive account of current operations. The weakening of the ruble also contributes to the greater stability of state financials, as well as the restrictions on the trip. Previously, Russians exported $ 20-30 billion on their personal spending abroad every year, and now they will spend this money in Russia. It's funny, but the visa embargo and the closure of flights for ordinary citizens helps to increase the stability of the Russian economy to any external shocks.

Sergey Medvedev: How will a simple person feel a blow of sanctions?

Sergey Khestanov: Here the main mechanism is the weakening of the ruble. About a third of the consumers of the average Russian are imported goods, and even in many Russian goods there is an element of imported cost, therefore, in the near future, inflation will significantly accelerate: at least ten percent increase in inflation. The 2015 experience shows that it is possible to cope with this in about a year, including the cost of delaying the belts of ordinary Russians.

Sergey Medvedev: What are you expected by GDP numbers - this is stagnation, loss, not to mention investment and modernization?

Sergey Kheestanov: So far, the basic scenario remains: low rates of economic growth, from 1 to 2% per year, which, from the point of view of most economic entities, will be perceived as a kind of stagnation.

Sergey Medvedev: Says Vladislav Inozemtsev , director of the Center for Research of the Post -industrial Society, Doctor of Economic Sciences.

The dollar rate will stabilize somewhere at 150 rubles, prices will crawl up, the usual goods will disappear

Vladislav Inozemtsev: The middle class will suffer and above: people who are used to traveling and paying in Europe credit cards, people in cities who used foreign delivery services. Sechin is the tip of the iceberg, which excites a few, the sanctions against him or Peskov, by and large, are not much important. In the UK, Russians are forbidden to have more than 50 thousand pounds on the account - this is a serious moment.

The dollar rate will stabilize somewhere at the level of 150 rubles, prices will crawl up, the usual goods will disappear. The income, of course, will not increase. Then summer will come, and it will become clear that the Russians covered the entire summer vacation abroad. Then it turns out that there is no import, it will become clear that production stops due to the lack of components, equipment, raw materials.

Vladislav Inozemtsev

And finally, the next blow - it turns out that it is impossible to use loans, the mortgage will actually close, because it will become 20%. People will understand that their familiar lifestyle is simply destroyed before our eyes. I think by mid -summer there will already be an apotheosis. Will this be shaken by the economy? Undoubtedly! I am convinced that at the end of the year there will be an economic recession from 3 to 5%. Real income will be sharply reduced, poverty will increase even more. All negative economic consequences will be evident, but I am far from sure that people will perceive it exclusively as a product of the regime. Putin's support remains quite high. People are absolutely zombie by propaganda, they do not want to live in reality. All we see now is Putin’s battle with reality.

Sergey Medvedev: We connect Dmitry Gudkov’s policy to the conversation. Was the Putin regime ready for this scale of sanctions?

Dmitry Gudkov: No. It’s hard to just be nothing. This will turn into a disaster for Russia. It is far from the fact that the country will continue.

Sergey Medvedev: And how do you see this scenario: there will be an elite riot, a riot of security forces, people will go to the Kremlin with a pitchfork?

Dmitry Gudkov: I think we will wait for everything. The rebellion of the elites will be quite obvious. A couple of days, and all these rats will begin to run from the ship. Putin prepared this operation secretly from most representatives of the elites. Seeing Naryshkin at the Security Council during the recognition of the independence of the “LPR” and “DPR”: his trembling voice, trembling knees and a completely slurred performance, ”I thought that something was wrong here. When the Americans began to report the upcoming war, most likely, it was a drain from the members of the Security Council. And it seems to me that Putin also understood this, so I decided to conduct this whole procedure publicly so that all the members of the Security Council signed with blood. He said to them: "Guys, everything, you will not jump anywhere from this gangster titanium. If something happens to me, then it will automatically happen to you."

All this will turn into a disaster for Russia. It is far from the fact that the country is generally preserved

If Putin, paranoid and crazy, believed that he was trying to protect the "Russian world", then all these adapters simply assented him, trying to preserve their raised places. I am sure that even in the immediate environment there is now a panic. In the material of one of the former journalists "Kommersant", who talked with representatives of the elite, everyone very clearly pronounces the word of six letters with the letter "P". A couple of days - and the principle of dominoes will begin.

Sergey Medvedev: Will they fly to the west? They say that even the flights of a business aviation from Vnukovo-2 are now blocked.

Dmitry Gudkov: They will not fly anywhere. They now have the opportunity to only jump off this gangster titanium, so that they would not be considered state criminals then with Putin and not judge. Five minutes ago, I posted an appeal to the elites on my YouTube channel: you have the last chance to save my skins, removing Putin from power in any way, because it simply destroys the country and all of us. It is one thing to vote for the independence of "DPR" and "LPR", and the other is to stand behind the massacre of people in Ukrainian cities. This is a crime that can no longer be washed away.

Sergey Medvedev: How loyal is the security forces, the army in this situation?

Dmitry Gudkov

Dmitry Gudkov: The people who support it are units. Another thing is what they are now afraid of more - to sit down for 20 years for treason or to be on the bench in the Hague. I think the further, the more the situation will change in favor of the action to prevent war.

Sergey Medvedev: Both Medinsky and Medvedev spoke about the death penalty. Are you allowing her return?

It is one thing to vote for the independence of "DPR" and "LPR", and another - to stand behind the massacre of people in Ukrainian cities

Dmitry Gudkov: Now there can be anything. I think they started talking about this precisely in order to prevent the split of the elites. They are already afraid of their own. After all, Putin is obsessed with his safety. He even holds the meetings at this huge table and does not understand what looks like crazy when the Minister of Defense is ten meters from him. This person will now begin one hundred percent more repression against elites. Apparently, they feel that even the closest environment does not support them. Even Kostin, the head of VTB, in an interview says that this is some kind of nightmare!

Sergey Medvedev: sanctions are announced against Putin, Lavrov. The process began in the Hague: will there be a qualification of them as war criminals?

Dmitry Gudkov: Obviously, yes. Here the question is - who will be on this bench with Putin. As soon as the regime collapses (and this is only a matter of time), then someone will show himself. And the faster they try to at least bounce to the side ... The rejection of the deputy mandate can be counted as departure aside, or an entrepreneur who will declare that he was against the war, as Abramovich, Deripaska, Friedman have already done. It is one thing when you conduct repressions against journalists or participate in a hybrid war, and another thing is when the Russian army bombed Ukrainian cities and children are dying in the eyes of the whole world when 100 thousand are already in Germany, which was the main outpost of Putin in Europe and restrained the sanctions against Russia. Today, Germany understood everything and takes the most stringent position.

Before our eyes, the country simply falls apart, our whole world is collapsing. Everyone understands that there is no way back, nothing can be played out. The same thing will happen now with public opinion within the country. People who previously doubted or said that they were outside of politics also begin to guess that they were deceived. As soon as the first shock passes, everyone will understand that either a total dictatorship with mass repressions, or they will throw this power, we will see mass rallies, a split in the elites, and the fall of Putin's regime. The most important thing is that he does not have time to press the red button.

Sergey Medvedev: And if the regime manages to transfer the war in Ukraine into a protracted phase? A prolonged war, the spring thaw and the period of repression within Russia itself.

Dmitry Gudkov: The war will definitely drag on, but the sanctions will very quickly bring everyone to life. Already on Chinese television, cadres of the Russian invasion begin to actively show, as the army destroys civilians. I think China will turn around now. He has already suspended the purchase of Russian oil. At some point, Putin will remain in complete isolation. It will be many times more than 1998! I do not think that he has reserves and reserves to keep the situation for a long time. In the coming weeks there will be an economic shock that Russians will feel on themselves.

Before our eyes, the country simply falls apart, our whole world is collapsing

Sergey Medvedev: with us Nikolai Petrov , senior researcher of the Royal Institute of International Relations (Chamma House) in London . How does Russian in London feel now, is there any tension?

Nikolai Petrov: I have not heard about cases when people would be subjected to some attacks only because they are Russians. But in London every day there are large demonstrations in defense of Ukraine and against the war. The Russian embassy was recently thrown into eggs. Public moods are entirely on the side of Ukraine.

Sanctions against Russia are murderous and have an instant effect. Messages regarding both arrest and the inability to fly from European countries or the need to transfer all aircraft to lessons to lessons from the countries of Europe. And banking sanctions are so difficult that they will be very, quickly, quickly and everywhere will feel the overwhelming part of Russian citizens. These murderous sanctions are good when the task of ending the war and creating for the regime is inability to rely on at least some public, if not support, then apathy in connection with the war. But they should be quickly canceled in the part in which they beat ordinary citizens, since otherwise they will have a negative effect, contributing to the consolidation of the part of the society that supports the regime today, and at the same time will contribute to the demobilization and depression of a part of a society actively opposing the war.

Nikolai Petrov

These sanctions can shake the regime in a very fast perspective if they are not softened. We are talking about the fundamental impossibility of providing priority life needs. Our current economic model involves the exchange of raw materials for consumer goods and food, which we purchase in the outside world, and with total restrictions on banking operations that will affect Chinese banks too ... When it was about past sanctions, China was not at all eager to bypass or help Russia, taking on the risks of serious sanctions by the United States. In any case, the Russian fortress will last a very limited time.

Sergey Medvedev: Are political analysts realistic in the West evaluate the introduction of an oil and gas embargo?

Nikolai Petrov: I think yes. The question is rather like this: is it possible to use this mechanism that is extremely painful today for the West, now in order to stop the war in Ukraine? I would not exclude this script.

Sergey Medvedev: Is Russia's reorientation possible to Asian markets? India remains, who did not vote to the UN on the Russian issue with China, Türkiye remains.

These sanctions are able to shake the regime in a very fast perspective if they are not softened

Nikolai Petrov: I would not say that Turkey remains: it provides active support for the Ukrainian army, and Erdogan is not a faithful ally of Putin. I would not really count on Asia at all. Of course, we can count on selling part of the energy resources to the Chinese market, but it will be other volumes and completely different money, and most importantly, in exchange for these resources, we will not receive at all what we get today. It will be necessary to forget about the life that we lived since the 90s, and turn into a semi-natural economy. Our entire economy, including its agricultural part, about which the Kremlin proudly said that this was lifted in the sanctions regime, depends very much on Western components, seeds and much more.

Sergey Medvedev: The world around us collapsed over the past week. We still do not understand where we found ourselves: perhaps already in the state of 1991, in Soviet state, in the same extent closed from the outside world. But now Russia is much more dependent on the outside world in its technologies and components than the USSR in the 91st year, so the situation is serious. The question is how sustainable the Russian regime will be and how patient is the Russian population.