Translated material
Collapse or just a fall in the economy?
Will the sanctions be discarded in the nineties? Russian oil in exchange for food? Iran, Venezuela or Zimbabwe: which scenario is most likely in the Russian case?
My today's interlocutors: the Swedish-American economist Anders Award , a former adviser to the governments of several countries, and Ukrainian-American economist Yuri Gorodnichenko , professor of the University of California at Berkeley, an invited researcher at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
As a result of the invasion of Ukraine , Russia faced sanctions, the true scale of which is still not obvious . It is only clear that the country is in financial, technological and economic isolation, not yet total. It was almost completely cut off from international financial markets, the assets of the Central Bank in the West are frozen, leading Western companies leave Russia and refuse to export their products, including passenger aircraft and spare parts for them . A ban on the sale of Russia of high -tech products is introduced, including semiconductors who are not produced in the country. For the first time, a real threat hung over the state of Russian oligarchs in the United States. In his speech about the situation, President Biden warned that the United States would not be a haven for capital capital. This phrase of the president was met by a standing ovation.
What of this set is seen by the most important Anders Aperendu?
It seems that Mr. Putin arranged a financial crisis like 1998 for the country
- The first is financial sanctions. This is the main thing that will really break the Russian economy now, ”says Anders Award . - It seems that Mr. Putin arranged a financial crisis like 1998 for the country. I expect that there will be a recession of GDP this year at least 5 percent, there may be 10 percent. The second is sanctions associated with the export of high -tech goods that will be very important for the future development of Russia. And the third is personal sanctions, they are the weakest, they must be strengthened.
- You say that Russia will have to, figuratively speaking, pay for the invasion of the economy in Ukraine, but many analysts say that economic sanctions, including sanctions against the Central Bank of Russia, can cause economic collapse, which sounds much more alarming.
- In principle, sanctions against Russia are now most similar to sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Venezuela lost annually, if I remember correctly, 16 percent of GDP for three consecutive years, but Maduro remains in power. The economic collapse can be very serious. Venezuela was one of the richest countries in Latin America, now it is one of the poorest countries. Russia will be a very poor country. While Putin remains in power, it will be worse. If we specifically say, now the average Russian earns approximately $ 700 a month, the average Ukrainian earns $ 600 a month. In two months, the average Russian will earn approximately $ 400 per month. The Central Bank increased interest rates from 9.5 percent to 20. The situation will remind the 90s when no one wants to take loans at all, because a loan means bankruptcy. This will be followed by a significant level of bankruptcy of medium -sized enterprises, because they work with loans.
- To this, you need to add a shutdown from the SWIFT system , which was so feared in Russia. Will this measure noticeably worsen their position?
- In fact, it is very serious - when the US Department of Finance tells the bank: you have no right to use the dollar. Disconnecting from SWIFT - this means that you cannot use the system of messages about transactions, this is a much less serious problem. For example, Somalia is not included in SWIFT, but there you can use Western Union, which transfers money almost everywhere in the world, which costs 3 percent for each transfer. What does this mean? That the transaction takes more time and costs more. This does not mean that it is impossible to conduct transactions. People believe that SWIFT is a payment system, although in fact it is only a payment message system, this is more symbolic.
- It is good if the disconnection from Swift in your interpretation is not so destructive for the Russian financial system, then the total scale of sanctions is unprecedented, it seems to me that none of the Western analysts could even assume that Europe, Western countries will decide to cut Russia from world financial, and, we can say, the economic system. Although you offered some of such measures.
-All the time I offered more or less such sanctions as now, but I did not expect that they would decide to freeze the reserves of the Central Bank, because it was believed that these assets have immunity. There are some factors that are important to keep in mind. Putin has heard so many times that now there will be hellish sanctions, now there will be hellish sanctions, and then nothing has happened. He was assigned to the fact that the West only talks and does nothing. I think this is the main factor in his decision to invade Ukraine. Secondly, the invasion radically changed Europe. I myself am the Swede, suddenly I hear that Sweden gives five thousand units of anti -tank weapons to Ukraine - this is a lot. Most of all these changes are noticeable in Germany. After the angel Merkel left, another team comes, the new Social Democratic Chancellor Olaf Scholz, and it turns out that there is also a huge support for sanctions against Russia. We saw how 500 thousand Germans reached the manifestation for Ukraine, against the war on Sunday in Berlin. A huge thing.
- That is, starting the war against Ukraine, Russia, one might say, forced the West to declare it the economic war itself?
- That's for sure. Russia is now in complete isolation. Putin did not assume that this could happen. He thought I was so cool that everything was allowed to me. But, excuse me, there are some values that even European politicians cannot come to. It turns out that he did not believe that such values exist.
- Do you think the Kremlin has opportunities, tools to neutralize this economic and financial blow?
Putin's mistake was that he believed that Russia was an impregnable financial fortress
- No. This is something that they do not understand. Putin’s first mistake was that he believed that Russia was an impregnable financial fortress, but it turns out that these 640 billion dollars of the reserves of the Central Bank can simply be frozen. Another that he thought that he had a wonderful friend in China, but China does not want to deal with a country that is against everyone. And the third: Putin thinks that you can lie all the time. But people don't like it. After Putin, Russia will just have to learn diplomacy.
- Now for the first time several prominent Russian oligarchs have been publicly worried, including Derispap. The West expands sanctions against them, arrest their yachts. Is it possible to say that as a result, a real threat hung over them, because in recent years they managed to avoid serious blows, hiding their assets?
- If they support Putin, they will end in the West, if they do not support Putin - the end in Russia. They really have no possibilities left. Regardless of what they are doing, the prices of their assets have decreased by approximately half during this week. It is possible that they will fall further. In 2008, the price of all shares in Russia fell 80 percent of May to October. I think that you need to expect something the same now.
-In Britain, there is a serious conversation about identifying real owners of property purchased with the money of Russian oligarchs, and its arrest, in New York, local politicians urge the Ministry of Finance to arrest the property of famous Russian rich, at least hundreds of millions of dollars. The conversation is about Abramovich, Blavatnik, Rybolovlev, Kuzmichev, which have not yet been subjected to sanctions. But the authorities, as I understand it, cannot confiscate real estate, assets, but only freeze them.
- They can freeze, as you correctly noted, but they cannot confiscate. To do this, you need to adopt a new law, which can be easily done. I think there will be changes. In Europe, this is easy to do, in the USA it is quite difficult to adopt such a law.
- In your opinion, you can, with the help of sanctions, force Putin to stop the war, retreat? After all, until now, by and large, he dismissed them.
- This, of course, is a key question. I think Putin is not worried about sanctions. And this is a mistake. They are dangerous in the sense that there are people near Putin who will say: this person does not understand anything why he is still president? The question is, such people are strong enough that they can remove it? By the general opinion, this is not so. But at the same time, we now see in Russia an impending huge catastrophe for Russians. Something similar happened in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, in Zimbabwe it happened. The dictators sat there for a long time, destroyed a lot. Now it is necessary to answer the question: is Russia part of Europe or part of Africa?
Yuri Gorodnichenko calls the shutdown from SWIFT and freeze the assets of the Central Bank with the most painful measures for Russia.
“I would single out two things: the first is a shutdown from Swift, and the second is that the assets of the Central Bank of Russia froze,” says Yuri Gorodnichenko . - This very much limits the possibility of the Russian authorities to enjoy the financial system of the Western world and extinguish economic fires in Russia.
- But the speech, as I understand it, is more about more than the deprivation of the amenities related to its participation in the international financial system. Speaking, according to many analysts, is the sanctions potentially murderous for the Russian economy ?
If the dollar costs 100, 115, 200 rubles, people will begin to think about what is happening
- This is true. I would single out two types of sanctions: that which kills the economy in the long run, for example, a ban on technology transfer. This was once held with the Soviet Union, when the Soviet Union could not buy any microchips or computers, he could not even make pipes to lay gas pipelines from Siberia to Western Europe. That is, technological backwardness will accumulate year after year, someday it will achieve the economy. If there is a question, what can be very much influenced today, then the shutdown from SWIFT, freezing the assets of the central bank - this will instantly create obvious problems, the difference between the refrigerator and the TV will begin to be felt very quickly. If the dollar costs 100, 115, 200 rubles, people will begin to think about what is happening at all, whether this venture is worth such money, such resources.
- I remember several years ago, when for the first time the threat of Russian excommunication from the international system for ensuring financial transactions Swift, the Russian authorities announced that they would perceive such a step as the declaration of economic warfare. Now SWIFT has lost several large banks, however, not all, since the West wants to leave channels to pay for the import of Russian oil and gas. Nevertheless, is this measure really so dangerous for Russia?
-At some local level, this will not affect anything at first, you can still take your rubles and go buy something in the store. But the problem is that financial institutions are very complex, they are tied to each other. For example, now many Russians are trying to withdraw money, convert them into dollars. And where to get dollars, if not anyone borrowed from anyone if the reserves of the Central Bank are frozen? This creates a panic, it warms up the banking system. This was already going on, it was during the great depression or during the recent great recession. When banking panic begins, the whole economy is falling.
- If you believe different Russian sources, what can be called a raid on banks in Russia, in general, is not. Ruble assets are still available.
- rubles, of course, they can print how much they want, but at the cost of the issue there will be much more inflation. Now the Central Bank of Russia is raising interest rates to keep the outflow of capital from Russia. But again, the interest rate is not only for those investors who want to leave Russia is for all Russians, for all businesses. Imagine if you have a interest rate of 20 percent or more - this is the cosmic price of a loan. Sooner or later, the central bank will put the economy, protect the ruble, or it will release the ruble freely, but in any of these scenarios there will be nothing good.
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0:00 0:01:37 Download the media file- Can we assume what will happen if you release the ruble in free swimming and not support it with dollar interventions?
- Partly this happened after the annexation of Crimea. Also, then the ruble was released to swim, and he flew away for 70 rubles per dollar from 30, that is, he fell twice. This can be, yes.
- As a result of sanctions against the Central Bank, Russia was cut off from most of its gold and foreign exchange reserves, because they, as it turned out, are invested in various Western financial instruments, access to which Russia was deprived. That is, the Kremlin’s financial pillow, in fact, does not. According to approximate estimates, the Central Bank has at the disposal of a little more than $ 200 billion, in gold and in the yuan. Is this enough to prevent the economy from collapse?
Venezuela, and many other countries to the last cartridge defended their currency, their banks, but in the end it all ends with collapse
-Firstly, I will say that out of 200 billion that they have, about half is gold. Who will trade gold? You won’t take a truck, load it with gold, take it to China or pay with gold to someone. This is an anachronism that is no longer a hundred years old, probably. Therefore, the price of these transactions of Western increases very much. Secondly, there were announcements that Shell, BP among many who want to get out of Russian assets, they will sell these assets, they will try to get dollars or euros for them, that is, the demand for dollars will continue to grow. Who will cover this? No sensible Western bank will finance the purchase of these assets, Russian banks - they already have problems with a lot of problems. All this will fall on the shoulders of the Russian Central Bank. They will have to sell these reserves to ensure this output, if they do not provide a way out, then a wave of defaults will begin, then they will turn off all from access to financial markets. Given the volumes of bidding that occur every day, the account goes to many, many billions every day, in order to cover these breaks, completely tremendous money is needed. If the central bank wants to burn its reserves, let it burn, but at some point it will end. We all had already passed this, there were Venezuela and many other countries that until the last cartridge defended their currency, their banks, but in the end it all ends with collapse.
- Collapse is a multi -significant word. You can decompose according to the shelves, what does this mean?
- For example, you come to the bank and say that I need to take money to pay the worker a salary, but they tell you: there is no money. You say: well, at least some money for any interest. Well, we will give you percent, but it will be 100 percent. I don’t know how many firms will want to do this. They will go, tell their workers: guys, this situation, there is no money, we will pay you wheels or some pipes that we produce there.
- Professor Gorodnichenko, can you clearly reveal this connection between the absence of dollars and non -payments? It is clear that behind the fall of the ruble the price of import, and domestic products, and what else is the absence of dollars in the country is still fraught with?
-The role of money is the belief that you will come to the store and you can buy something with this money, someone will accept it. Given the expectations that there can be many rubles, and there are not very many goods, the desire to have rubles will not be very high, everyone will try to make their transactions, savings in the most protected currency-in dollars. If these dollars are not, how to protect yourself? When the banking system is covered, it was already in the Soviet Union that you are making a pipe for Gazprom, and Gazprom does not have money, because they are under sanctions. The manufacturer of the pipes will come to its workers and say: guys, I have no money to pay, the bank does not give money, so there will be delays in salaries.
- Apparently, you can add inflation to this picture or can even talk about hyperinflation?
- There may be inflation and hyperinflation. But again, much depends on the circumstances that they will choose the strategy. There are no good scenarios here. Or you have to let go of the dollar swim, but this inflation will be inevitably again, or you protect reserves and then get inflation in the end anyway. Because when panic begins, one hundred billion dollars - this is not such a lot of money for such a large country as Russia.
- Or maybe the government as an extreme measure to go for deadllarization? Дескать, россиянам не нужна валюта враждебных государств, экспортеров заставят принудительно конвертировать валютную выручку в рубли.
– Это возможно, уже это проходилось много раз. Что будет происходить в таких случаях? Тогда экспортеры будут придумывать всякие схемы, рассказывать, что мы продали нашу трубу или что они продают, не за сто долларов, а за 50, а эту разницу в 50 долларов мы положим где-то в швейцарском банке через какую-то прокладку, фирму, сохраним деньги там. Никто не захочет продавать доллары по официальному курсу Центральному банку России, потому что это работать себе в убыток. Это уже проходили много раз во многих странах, в той же самой Венесуэле, и в России, и в Украине. Когда вводятся такие драконовские меры, люди пытаются найти обходные пути, чтобы сохранить свои доходы, они не хотят участвовать в этом банкете, оплачивать его. Кстати, одна из вещей, которая скорее всего произойдет, – это то, что доступ к наличным долларам или наличным евро будет постепенно для России каким-то образом ограничиваться. Предложение денег, твердой валюты, оно будет ограниченным, что будет еще больше разгонять обменный курс.
– Очень похоже, что Россию вообще отрезают от долларов и евро, за исключением, правда, небольшой отдушины: несколько банков останутся в системе SWIFT . Спасет эта отдушина Россию?
– Не все же банки отключили, чтобы кто-то мог поддержать штаны, провести транзакцию, оплатить газ или нефть. Саддаму Хусейну тоже давали продавать нефть, но говорили, что ты на эти деньги можешь только купить еду для каких-то беженцев, детей и так далее.
- How! Знаменитая программа "Нефть в обмен на продовольствие". С ней немало скандалов было связано. Саддам пытался обратить в свою сторону этот источник валюты.
– Было и скандалов много. Но с учетом того, как он закончил, то ему это не очень помогло.
– Юрий Городниченко, вы думаете, что Россия в действительности может оказаться в роли Ирака времен санкций или Ирана, который вынужден разбирать пассажирские самолеты на запчасти, чтобы отремонтировать очень старые самолеты, все еще находящиеся в эксплуатации, поскольку новых ему не продают?
– Скажу так: я никогда не думал, что наши российские братья будут бомбить украинские города. Поэтому теперь диапазон возможного от одной бесконечности до другой бесконечности. Из того, что я вижу в общественном мнении, тут, в Америке народ настроен очень решительно. Поэтому, я думаю, России не стоит рассчитывать на то, что они отсидятся, как в прошлый раз, в 2014 году, на самом деле все намного более серьезно.
– Все-таки можно в общем предположить, чем придется России расплачиваться за вторжение в Украину, учитывая действительно удивительную решимость западных стран, Европы экономически, технически, политически изолировать Россию, даже несмотря на потенциальные собственные потери? Сегодня ведь Западом отброшены почти все табу?
– Падение производства, обнищание, инфляция. Возвращаясь к опыту 90-х, была огромная инфляция, сотни процентов, падение производства с десятками процентов. Конечно, сейчас будет ситуация чуть-чуть более, наверное, контролируемая в том плане, что какие-то финансовые институты не полностью умрут, будет какое-то управление процессами. Опять же опыт Венесуэлы или Ирака показывает, что если не поменять свое поведение, то цена вопроса становится очень серьезной.
– Есть, скажем, опасность для вкладов россиян, находящихся в банках?
- Undoubtedly. Банковская паника может угробить кого угодно. Система банков изначально построена на том, что они не могут вернуть все депозиты одновременно. Конечно, есть система страхования депозитов, есть Центральный банк, который может дать деньги. Федеральной резервной системе во время Великой рецессии приходилось делать огромные вливания в банки, притом что финансовые рынки, экономика в США намного более продвинутая, чем российская, тем не менее какие были огромные потери. Это при том, что никто никого не ограничивал, самолеты летали, и корабли плавали, можно было взять денег у кого угодно – у Японии, у Кореи, в Европе. Сейчас этого не будет. Когда экономика тонет, а тебе не дают спасательный круг, то ты тонешь еще быстрее.
– Хорошо, а есть нечто, что российские власти могут сделать, чтобы избежать худшего? Они много лет рассказывают об успехах импортозамещения. Они возвращали домой золото в ожидании подобного развития событий, не понимая, что они его не смогут использовать. Остались у них в руках какие-то инструменты?
– Самый лучший инструмент – это остановить войну в Украине. Это единственное, что они могут сделать, что им реально может помочь. Все остальное – это ты падаешь с пятого этажа, тебе кто-то соломку подстелил.
– Кстати, многие обратили внимание на очень необычные заявления отдельных так называемых российских олигархов. Олег Дерипаска, например, предупредил , что отсидеться, как в 2014 году, не удастся, и даже призвал менять экономическую политику, весь этот, как он сказал, госкапитализм. Вам понятно, что он имел в виду?
Можно разрешить экспортировать российскую нефть только в обмен на продукты питания, чем не решение вопроса?
– К сожалению или к счастью, я этих людей лично не знаю, психологию там тяжело понять. Как говорит народная пословица, своя рубашка всегда ближе к телу. Когда ты тратишь народные деньги – это удобно и приятно. Но когда деньги государственные заканчиваются, приходится тратить свои деньги, терять свои активы, вот тогда уже уровень удовольствия резко падает. Уже Дерипаска проходил санкции на "Русал".
– Но тогда-то он отделался легко, потому что от этих санкций пострадал мировой рынок алюминия.
– Тогда да. Обстоятельства фундаментально поменялись. Никто не думал, что Украине будут поставлять оружие из Германии. Оказалось, возможно. Точно так же можно подумать над "Русалом", как там так сделать. Можно разрешить экспортировать российскую нефть только в обмен на продукты питания, чем не решение вопроса?
– Вы думаете, дело может дойти до запрета импорта энергоресурсов из России?
- Easy. Я не знаю, вы слышите или нет, сейчас башенные часы в Беркли играют украинский гимн. Тут народ настроен очень решительно. Я бы на месте наших российских "братьев" очень бы серьезно подумал, что они делают.