“Yes, many are impoverished. Someone will live on the street. And whose fault? I will answer: Putin "

Why does the West beat sanctions on ordinary Russians? Interview with the economist Jeffrey Sonnenfeld

Care-both due to sanctions and of goodwill-Western business from Russia due to the invasion of Ukraine will lead to the collapse of the economy, the scale of which is even difficult to predict. Many ask questions: what is the goal of the West and how do they relate to the hardships that will inevitably fall on the shoulders of Russian society? Svetlana Reuters Special Corps of Medusa talked about this with a convinced support of sanctions against Russia Jeffrey Sonnenfeld, a professor of Yale Higher School of Management, who (as an intermediary between politics and large business) advised several American presidents, including Joe Bayden, Donald Trump and Bill Clinton.

- In our correspondence, you admire the heroism of the journalists "Medusa". Thank you so much. Nevertheless, my first question is this: do you give yourself to yourself that due to the general departure of large companies from the Russian market, not only Vladimir Putin and his entourage will suffer, but also, for example, the same journalists whose work you like so much? Do you think this is true?

- Yes. There is another option to change the situation in Ukraine - the war with Russia will begin. They will throw bombs on the homes of ordinary and innocent citizens. Russian cities will destroy. The path that has been chosen now is much better, agree: large companies leave the Russian market, the oligarchs are poor, this causes their discontent. Suppose they do not read Medusa, but they have access to social networks in which they write that Ukraine is not controlled by the Nazis. At some point, they will understand that the stories that Russian propaganda fed to them is a lie. And that the Russian economy cannot exist without outside support.

You see, the meaning of the departure of Western companies from the Russian market is not easier to make the life of Russians - he is that Putin, who is now conducting a merciless bloody war in Ukraine, is not so strong. Perhaps, like any dictator, he believes that he controls everything - including the economy. But it is already clear that he does not control civil society and is not able to provide his fellow citizens with a normal lifestyle. At one time, Mahatma Gandhi called on Hindus to boycott the goods produced by British companies - in order to overthrow the colonial regime . In the case of the departure of Western companies, the same model is used - they refuse to work in the country that wages the war.

Many dictators came across such a problem - from Nicholas Chausko to Erich Honecker . Western companies refused to work both in Romania and the GDR. Generations of young people with ambitions and brains were cut off from science and technology . The same thing awaits Russia - there will be no science, no progress, nor new phones, no medicines, no normal diapers and chocolate for children. Yes, many are impoverished. Someone will lose housing and will live on the street. And whose fault? I will answer: Putin, who does not control the country's economy, does not control any of the spheres of civil society. And people who literally find themselves on the street will ask Putin and his government all questions - as it was in Romania and the GDR. Then the current regime will fall - and this is the main goal.

- And Russia will be in complete economic isolation.

- Oh yes. All European countries - you hear, all countries, without exception, even Albania - refuse to work with Russia. Australia, Korea, even China will not give a dime of Russia. Just think - China will not give Russia a single dollar bill, nor a broken cent. All operations with Russia will be tightly frozen, but the Russians will understand whose fault they suffer.

- That is, you see two ways - the war with Russia and the full economic boycott of Russia? Not given the third?

- Absolutely right.

- It is not embarrassing that the middle class, which was already critical of Putin, is the massly leaving Russia? The number of refugees that will ask for refuge, for example, in Europe, will grow.

- It seems to me that this is not such a significant loss. Firstly, Europe is quite willing to accept refugees-everyone with great sympathy relate to people who have suffered from the current regime.

- Well, can we at least approximately evaluate the losses of Western companies that are massively leaving Russia?

- On average, the Russian market was less than 10% of the total profit of Western companies. For many manufacturers, this figure is much lower - less than 2%.

- In Russia, local production is quite well developed - you do not consider such a scenario in which the Russian elite remains with its money brought abroad, the middle class will leave, and the rest will simply switch to “import substitution”? Yes, this is a painful process, but life will not stop from this and the regime will not fall.

- You forget that Russians will not be able to spend their money. Disabled Swift , Visa, MasterCard . You need to buy a new couple of boots, there are no domestic analogues yet - what will you do? How and what will you pay? What will you wear? I do not think that Russian manufacturers will be able to saturate demand with which the country has never encountered a record time. You will not have spare parts for a car, computer programs, baby food. If someone believes that the Russian modern economy can exist in conditions of complete isolation, I would advise him to return to school. Do you have analogues of Hewlett Packard, Dell, IBM, Apple, Microsoft? Don't think.

- History remembers the example of Iraq - when in 1990 global sanctions and boycott not only did not weaken the regime, but, on the contrary, strengthened it.

- At that time, there was still no combination of the mechanisms of economic boycott, as, for example, in South Africa , from where the Western business completely left and the country was in full blockade, and the disconnections of international payment systems. It seems to me that this measure is very effective.

- The question that takes everyone: when will it end?

- I don't know. I know the position of companies that are determined and are not going to stay in Russia. And when the political situation changes, you know better.

- Is it possible to hope that companies will return to Russia with the end of the war in Ukraine?

- In the future, they all want to return. They love Russia, but do not like Putin.

- I understand correctly that while Putin in power, Western companies in Russia will not be?

- Right. They will return - when it will not be.

Talked Svetlana Reuters