Draff Ming and nuclear de -escalation

Good morning!

In Moscow, a mathematician from Donetsk committed suicide , who could not leave for Ukraine due to arrest. In a suicide note, he wrote that he could not bear the horror of what was happening. In the war like this:

• The Russian airtar destroyed the art school in Mariupol. About 400 people took refuge there. Ukraine rejected the ultimatum of Russia about the surrender of the city.
• Kyiv claims that the front was almost frozen. According to CIT, Russia continues to transfer troops and equipment to the Rostov region.
• In Russia, all new sites are blocked and participants in anti -war shares are detained.
• The United States offers Turkey to transfer Russian S-400 systems to Ukraine.

Front reports

On Sunday, Russia nominated the ultimatum to the defenders of Mariupol: today it was proposed from 10:00 to 12:00 to organize a way out of the city of Ukrainian military and foreign mercenaries "without weapons - in this case they were promised to save their lives. Ukraine rejected this ultimatum. On Saturday, the art school No. 12 was injured from the Russian aircraft wrapper, where about 400 residents of Mariupol were hidden from shelling. In the vicinity of the city, the deputy commander of the Black Sea Fleet of Russia was killed .

On Monday night, the Podolsky district of Kiev was undergoing shelling, four people were killed. On the weekend from explosions of missile fragments, a residential building was injured in the Svyatoshinsky district of the Ukrainian capital. The shelling of Kharkov continues ( here is an interview with the mayor of the city, here is the story of a local journalist), the cities of the Kiev region , Chernihiv, Zhytomyr region are shelling. At the Chernobyl nuclear power plant, a partial rotation of the staff took place : 46 volunteers arrived for employees who worked for 600 hours.

According to the adviser to the head of the Office of the President of Ukraine Alexei Armovich, the front “almost froze”, because none of the parties have the strength to turn the situation. Conflict Intelligence Team notes that Russia continues to transfer troops and military equipment to the Rostov region. The Ukrainian General Staff recorded the signs of preparing the Belarusian army for direct invasion of Ukraine, and the Belarusian ambassador to Ukraine reported on the evacuation of all diplomats. Secretary of the National Security Council of Ukraine Alexei Danilov says that "if the boot of at least one Belarusian soldier crosses the border, he will be destroyed." According to him, Lukashenko cannot but understand that the participation of the Belarusian army in this war means the destruction of Belarusian statehood. (The Belarusian-Dobrovolets fighting on the side of Ukraine also speaks of the same thing). The head of the board of Ukrainian railways, Alexander Kamyshin assures that "honest people among the Belarusian railway workers will be able to stop the military echelons to Ukraine."

The Russian Ministry of Defense announced the use of Dagger missiles to strike a military warehouse in the Ivano-Frankivsk region, and the United States confirmed that the “daggers” were really used. The FSB stated that the Ukrainian military mined approaches to the ports, and therefore “mines mines to Bosphorus and the Mediterranean Sea” are not excluded. Here, this statement is commented by the head of the Black Sea Strategic Research project Andrei Klimenko: in fact, the Russian Black Sea Fleet mined the water area at the entrance to the Girlo Danube and around the island of the snake, which prevents the movement of commercial courts. The use of tactical nuclear weapons remains very likely: in Russian military planning since the beginning of the 2010s, there is a concept of “nuclear de-escalation” of the conflict, explains Military Expert Pavel Luzin.

In the Ukrainian cities occupied by Russia - Berdyansk, Kakhovka, Kherson and others - pro -Ukrainian rallies were held . The Russian military detain and beat the participants in these shares. The Russians released Oleg Baturin from the occupied Kakhovka, he spent almost eight days in captivity. In the Energodar of the Zaporizhzhya region, the Russian military abducted the first deputy mayor of Ivan the Malojuk.

In Ukraine, the activities of the "opposition platform - for life" and ten more pro -Russian parties are suspended .

According to the UN, from the beginning of the war in Ukraine at least 902 civilians were killed , another 1459 were injured. Among the dead are 115 children. Here are photos of the 25th day of the war.

Here, Prosecutor General of Ukraine, Irina Venediktova, tells how its department captures war crimes committed by the Russian army. Perhaps, for their assessment, a special tribunal in Ukraine will be created after the war.

What the Russians are unhappy

On the 25th day of the war, the head of the Russian Orthodox Church called for praying for "a single people who want to make relaxed." He called the unity of Russians and Ukrainians "historical and God's truth." Former Russian President Medvedev wrote in Telegram that Western companies that announced leaving the Russian market "" from the very beginning, they only thought about returning. " In fact, the Kremlin is very concerned about the consequences of the war for the stability of the Putin regime and are in a hurry study with the help of sociologists, which causes the greatest discontent of Russians. And there are reasons for discontent:

• In Russia, the sites "Mediazona. Central Asia", agentura.ru and the fan group of political scientist Ekaterina Schulman "VKontakte" were blocked . According to the calculations of the Roskomsvobod project, 593 pages have already blocked from the beginning of the war.
• According to the OVD-Info, since the beginning of the war in Russia, more than 15 thousand participants in anti-war shares have been detained . On Sunday, in Moscow, employees of the liquidated Memorial were detained on pickets. Here is a conversation with a human rights activist from Transbaikalia, who had just served 10 days under the article on the “propaganda of Nazism” for an anti -war picket.
• Most of the administrative protocols under a new article on discrediting the Russian military were drawn up in Kaliningrad and Tomsk.
• But they are not only pursued by this article: in Kazan, a candidate of biological sciences Andrei Boyarshinov in the case of justification of terrorism in Telegram chat was sent under house arrest.
• In Krasnodar, the Coordinator of Smart Observation was arrested for 10 days per tweeter "On police officers" ("excitement of hatred").
• Volgograd was arrested for 15 days for an anti -war poster at a concert in honor of the annexation of Crimea; They came to local activists with searches .
• The Adyghe activist was beaten, arrested, fined and sent under house arrest after an anti -war post.

The actress and philanthropist Chulpan Khamatova left Russia and is afraid to return. Here are the conversations with people who openly opposed the war in Ukraine and somehow affected by this: with the editor of the news of Channel One Marina Ovsyannikova , with the main artist of the Canal Dmitry Likin , with the teacher of geography Kamran Manafla (dismissed for “immoral behavior”), with a philanthropist from Perm Dmitry Zhebelev .

"Big Strategy"

The President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky spoke on a video of the Israeli Knesset. He reminded the words of the natives of Kyiv Golda Meir: “We want to live. Our neighbors want to see us dead. This leaves not too much space for a compromise.” Recalling that during the Second World War, many Ukrainians saved Jews, Zelensky said that now for the Jews it has come for an hour to save Ukrainians (of course, Israeli missile defense systems).

Reuters writes with reference to its sources that the United States unofficially discuss with Turkey the possibility of the transfer of Russian S-400 Russian missile systems to Ukraine. The first units for the deployment of the Patriot system arrived in Slovakia (now the S-300 Soviet production system is in service there).

The Chinese Foreign Ministry balanced its anti -war statement with a criticism of “increasingly outrageous sanctions” that the West imposes on Russia. The Minister of Economics and Finance of France Bruno Le Merda reported on the freezing of Russians assets of 850 million euros due to the introduction of EU sanctions. Here, economist Timofey Milovanov explains why the war between Russia and Ukraine can lead to a serious shortage of food around the world.

In an interview with CNN, the President of Ukraine said that if his country was a member of NATO, there would be no war now. It is possible that Zelensky is right: here political scientist Kirill Shamiev tells how the West looked at Putin’s “big strategy” aimed at capturing Ukraine.

Six links

• Historical parallels. Historian Alexander Gogun finds the origins of the “Live Shield” tactics, which has been using the Russian army in Ukraine since 2014, in the practice of red partisans during the Second World War. A lawyer from South Africa Gart Menkes talks about his experience in combating an apartheid.
• Cinema on both sides of the border. Anton Dolin talks with the Ukrainian film critic Natalya Serebryakova - she just got out of Sumy, which she decided after the air bomb fell near her house. The Radio correspondent Freedom is talking about the war with the love of Arcus - the creator of the magazine “Session” and the founder of the rehabilitation center for people with autism “Anton here is nearby”.
• We, Russians abroad, are useless. Journalist Todar Bactemir explains how the unprecedented influx of Muscovites affects Armenia. The Russians living in Finland tell how the Finnish attitude towards them changed with the outbreak of war.

Sincerely yours,
Seven forty