Translated material
"All institutional conditions for the military entering politics have been created." Political scientist Abbas Gallyamov - about the prospects of the palace coup in Russia
221 years ago, on March 24, 1801, in Russia, as a result of the palace coup, Emperor Paul I was killed. Republic not so long ago recalled this historical episode in detail. Today, the palace coup (not necessarily with a bloody outcome) is considered by experts and inhabitants as a theoretically possible scenario of the change of power in Russia. The opinion is popular that if you change a person “on the throne”, then many problems will be solved because they are related to the personality of this person. Is the “palace coup” possible in Russia? What can it be? Republic talked about this with political scientist Abbas Gallyamov.
“Thu about the military and power elites, they are now also shocked by what is happening .”
- How has the internal political situation changed over the first month of “special operation”? Did you go beyond any boundaries, after which it will no longer be “as before”?
- I believe that the most part of the trends that dominated before the “special operation” will soon return. It must be understood that not one of the fundamental reasons that led to their appearance has been eliminated. Contradictions between the right to participate in the development of political decisions by society and authoritarian power; stagnant economy; corruption; The colossal gap in income and the quality of life between elites and the bulk of the population - all these factors have not gone away. Yes, now the society is shocked and these things are as if frozen, but this is a temporary phenomenon. Gradually, people will begin to adapt to the situation, the “special operation” will turn from the main, overshadowing all the rest of the events into an ordinary information background-just like Afghanistan or Chechnya once. Gradually, people will return the ability to think more or less logically, the previous sensations will return, multiplied by the critical economic situation.
Even if a third of forecasts regarding the upcoming collapse of the Russian economy is true, then after a couple of months they will feel a sharp deterioration in the quality of life. This problem will occupy their thoughts more and more. The people will stop thinking about NATO, USA, Ukraine and other favorite Putin themes. Prices, unemployment, shortage of drugs and other household items will come to the front line. Then the trend for the growth of protest moods, a decrease in the popularity of the regime, which dominated in previous years, will again prove itself. The effect of rallying around the flag is now quite limited, and after some time it will completely disappear.
Plus, you need to understand that all these returned negative trends will still need to be multiplied by a feeling of universal isolation - the whole world is against us. This, of course, will greatly beat the social well -being of Russians - all this bravado will disappear, after all, it is clear that no one has ever won the war with the whole world. I think that the Kremlin already feels the fear of isolation, so it has an idea with the Middle Eastern volunteers. Obviously, in the military sense, the value of the Arabs is zero. But the authorities grabbed them to demonstrate: we are not alone, we are not in isolation. Now the pro -Russian rallies in Syria have also taken up to organize - all in order to demonstrate to citizens: we have allies. It will be difficult to portray this with the help of a pile of Syrians.
- One of the scenarios of the change in the regime in Russia, which was talked about for many years and spoke even more now, is a palace coup, “snuffbox and scarf”. In your opinion, what groups surrounded by the head of state now suffer the most as a result of his actions and can decide on this?
- Yes, the elites are unhappy, and the chances of implementing the script that you are talking about are increasing. Two groups of reasons for such discontent can be distinguished. The first works in the case of civilians, the second with security forces. Firstly, it must be understood that Putin from the guarantor of stability, high social status and income overnight turned for the civilian part of the elites into a destabilization factor. Instead of a calm old age somewhere in Nice, before representatives of the domestic establishment, suddenly loomed the prospect of ending the life in the Gaga in the Hague. In a situation where the whole world is against you, this script ceases to be fantastic and suddenly becomes quite realistic. Of course, not everyone will sit down, but those who do not sit down - still rapidly turn into marginals who do not give hands, and the accounts are arrested. Look, look at Friedman. This, of course, is a new factor, which used to be in Russian politics. Previously, individual representatives of the establishment could be unhappy with Putin, but not all of them are like a class.
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