Ruble as a punishment

The other day, Vladimir Putin, at a meeting with the government , announced the transfer of calculations for natural gas supplied to the “unfriendly” countries. He gave the Cabinet of Ministers and the Central Bank a week to create an “understandable and transparent” scheme for the acquisition of the Russian currency by Gazprom’s clients in the domestic Russian currency market. In addition, the government must give the Gazprom directive to make changes to the current contracts.

The first reaction of European buyers of Russian gas was negative. German Chancellor Olaf Sholts recalled that in the long -term contract concluded by his country, two currencies are indicated, to which payment, dollar and euros can be made. The head of the Polish oil and gas concern PGNIG Pavel Maevsky also made a similar statement: the current contract does not allow to change the payment currency. Prime Minister of Slovenia Janes Yansha said that no one in Europe would buy gas for rubles. Other representatives of the EU countries made similar statements.

If anyone Putin “sentenced” to rubles, this is the head of the Russian gas giant Alexei Miller with comrades

This kind of first emotional reaction to Putin’s proposal was quite predictable. At the same time, they do not hide in Europe that if they could completely abandon the supply of Russian energy carriers, they would have done it a long time ago. Moreover, both the European Union as a whole, and each of its participants separately develop strategies for the fastest abandonment of Russian hydrocarbons. However, the years will take years to the implementation of these strategies, during which the conditions of the Putin leadership will have to take into account to some extent. Moreover, upon closer examination, the transfer of Russian gas should not turn into rubles so terrible for long -term contracts should not turn into rubles. Rather, on the contrary. If the price of gas is fixed in rubles, then buyers will only win. If only because the inflation rate in Russia is much higher than in the European Union, and therefore, the purchasing power of the ruble decreases faster than the euro.

Nothing radically new to create an “understandable and transparent scheme” will also be necessary to come up with. Anyone can buy rubles for the euro on the Moscow Exchange. It is not necessary to invest in the Russian currency for a long time: I exchanged the required amount of euros for rubles, transferred Gazprom on the same day to a ruble account in the Russian bank the next tranche - received the necessary fuel. There will be no violation of their own sanctions: all restrictions on the Russian financial sector had reservations that they did not concern calculations for Russian energy.

If anyone suffers from all this, then rather a Russian gas monopoly. Until now, they received freely convertible currency to accounts in foreign banks and only then transferred the euro and dollars to the Moscow Exchange to sell part of the foreign exchange earnings and finance their domestic ruble expenses, and at the same time pay taxes. However, a significant part of the currency paid for gas remained outside of Russia. Now this Gazprom, the Russian government, will come to an end not too transparent for the main shareholder of Gazprom. So if Putin “sentenced” to rubles, this is the head of the Russian gas giant Alexei Miller and his comrades. To receive from European partners they will be rubles in Russia. And this means that playing billions of dollars in the western banks of Gazprom will not be able to play on the Russian foreign exchange market, to get into regular ruble devaluation.

Of course, there are “friendly” countries that the order of Vladimir Putin does not apply. However, this is either China, which instead of dollars and euros strives to slip yuani, or Russian satellites like Belarus, from which, if you can get some currency, then only the one that he had previously given, in debt or simply within the framework of gratuitous assistance. In any case, Europe is the main market for Russian gas. If only because it is in this direction since Soviet times that there is a developed gas transmission infrastructure. And in the post -Soviet years, Gazprom buried in the ground and laid thousands of kilometers of pipes for tens of billions of dollars to the bottom of the sea. And one “power of Siberia” is leading to China, which Gazprom still does not take to design capacity.

Putin, it seems, himself does not realize how wild his "assignment" sounded. He is going to trade gas abruptly with "unfriendly" countries. And it seems to be an answer to the restrictions introduced by the West. That is, the ruble is, by definition, something like that, which a self-respecting partner does not want to have anything to have. So these of the “unfriendly” countries let them now suffer how the Russians are tormented from the age of century. Maybe they will feel something. This Putin’s attitude to the Russian national currency is confirmed by the fact that with the rest of the countries it allows you to trade gas for "real" money. If the United States or Europe, wanting to inflict economic damage to someone, prohibit the use of his currencies, then Putin forces his use.

On this, all the conversations about patriotism, perhaps, can be completed. Envy, jealousy and a destructive complex of inferiority - that’s the answer to the question of Who is Mister Putin asked 22 years ago? Someone can ask what all this is related to the economy? Yes, the most direct. Hardly anyone will deny that the state of the economy largely depends on what decisions people who represent the state make. And if the power in the state is concentrated in the hands of one person, then its adequacy and mental health are most directly reflected in the state of the economy. What the Russians have a misfortune to make sure now.

Maxim Blunt - Economic Observer of Radio Liberty, author and host of the project "Money at Free"

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