The expert predicted the collapse of the real estate market

Novosibirsk entered 10 cities with the largest increase in prices in the secondary housing market. The dynamics per quarter amounted to almost 9%. According to independent expert Dmitry Kholyavchenko, an increase in the cost of housing cannot be considered a trend, and in April a new reality is already on the market. Transactions will be made along the lower border of the proposal, demand and rising prices for new buildings will remain until the sales stand up due to a huge difference in the cost of the primary and secondary.

In the first quarter of 2022, the average cost is 1 square. m of secondary housing in Russia increased by 5.86%, to 86.3 thousand rubles, RBC writes with reference to SRG analysts. Novosibirsk entered the top ten cities with the highest growth dynamics - 8.89% (96,011 rubles).

As the independent expert Dmitry Kholyavchenko notes, the increase in residential real estate prices in most cities cannot be considered as a new trend, this is most likely “a vivid end to many previous trends”: “So at the end of March the mortgage lending in the basic - secondary market - housing and stirdowing demand of the end of February - early March was primarily caused by the need to implement the purchase of attraction mortgage loans, while they are still given. The second most important factor is the acquisition of real estate at the expense of savings, because at the highest level of distrust of the state, Russians do not see other ways of maintaining capital, except for real estate. ”

Since April, in the vast majority of local markets in the country, except for capitals and southern seaside regions, a new reality has come. This will be the end of the investment market, the transition to the market will begin, where in the overwhelming case, housing issues will be resolved.

“In this market there is no mortgage for the secondary, and the possibilities of acquiring housing due to savings have been exhausted in all cities, except, perhaps, millions. Accordingly, there are no grounds for maintaining prices, and even more so for growth. A decrease in solvent demand will also lead to a decrease in the price of supply. I think that most local markets to aware this will take about two months. Time has gone, ”says Kholyavchenko.

“At the same time, it is very important to keep in mind that the real price of transactions will now take place in most cases along the lower border of the price price. Analysis of the price of a sentence will make sense only if the technique implies not just cutting off extreme price segments in one category of housing. For example, it must be borne in mind that, say, 70–80% of the sentences will inevitably be set at high prices for a very long time and therefore it is necessary to cut off the corresponding part of the proposals in the upper price segment for the same type located in the same area, the expert comments. - Otherwise, the dynamics of the price price will be a spherical horse in a vacuum, and its fluctuations will not coincide with the dynamics of the price of real transactions. We have already seen such synchronization in 2014-2015. This time the crisis is much tougher, the level of its recognition by the authorities is lower, and the scale of the inadequate requests of sellers will be higher. ”

A available preferential mortgage is maintained on the primary market, so demand for some time will remain and will even grow prices, Kholyavchenko believes: “All this will happen according to the model of inflating the financial bubble and exactly until the discrepancies in the prices of similar objects in the houses under construction and ready-made houses will not reach unacceptable scales. Then the sales will simply get up, and it will be a shock option for the development of events. It should be said that for a year now the prices of new buildings have been inadequately overstated in comparison with the normal housing market. The current situation, when the state sets a course for further distortion of the market, will strengthen the skew of demand and tighten the collapse of the market after the bubble bursts. ”