Gazprom is a gun in Putin's war against Europeans "

Analyst Mikhail Krutikhin - about how the transfer of contracts with Russia to the rubles affected the oil and gas market

The Bloomberg publication reported that Gazprombank rejected the gas supply payment to Europe from Gazprom Germania. Earlier, Finland refused to pay for gas in rubles, and Poland and Bulgaria learned that Gazprom was stopping the supply of fuel to these countries.

New newspaper. Europe talked with the analyst of the oil and gas industry Mikhail Krutikhin about how the forced transfer of gas paying from Russia to the market affected the market, how the war was affected in the market and what Russia will do with the released volumes of gas.

- Transfer of gas payments in rubles is largely a formal measure, which simultaneously allows Russia and declare the rejection of the dollar, and at the same time practically requires nothing from Western countries. But, it turns out that for many this question turned out to be fundamental?

Mikhail Krutikhin

Economic analyst, oil and gas market specialist

-This is a question that Gazprom uses as an excuse, because there is still no sense in this condition. Well, he pays in currency and pays: the recipient gives money to Gazprombank, and he already opens some bills, and then pays from these bills already in the rubles of Gazprom, Gazpromexport-in general, who is the sender of the gas.

But now new interesting circumstances arise.

Gazprom refused to accept payments from German companies that used to belong to him in Germany.

That is, they, gas recipients are Gazprom, the gas was transferred from the pocket to the pocket - and suddenly Gazprom refuses them. They used the scheme provided by the presidential decree, but this did not help.

The same thing happened with Poland. The same thing happened with Bulgaria. And if Germany is like revenge for taking these companies from Gazprom, and Poland is revenge for the fact that Poland is one of the most active supporters of Ukraine in counteracting Russian aggression, then in Bulgaria it is a pressure on the Bulgarian leadership and the population, since there is now a new government, and it does not experience special sympathies for Gazprom.

In order to demonstrate that the new government of Cyril Petkov brought you into such a crisis, let's return some pro-Russian new leadership again. That is, let's turn off the gas to you now for this. This is still the same strategy that "you will not obey us, we will turn off the gas to you." I have already seen several times with observers behind the market, abroad and in Russia, one single formula is the suicide of Gazprom.

Even if only two countries take, Bulgaria and Poland, then according to various estimates, it is 8.5% or even 10% of Gazprom's revenue, from gas export. So refuse this money? What is this behavior for a commercial company? This is the behavior of a political instrument. This is to the detriment of itself, to the detriment of commerce, to the detriment of market niches, which Gazprom closes to itself.

- In your opinion, why did Vladimir Putin make this move? He was sure that the West would agree and go to these conditions?

-No, do not come up with some multi-way combinations, some ideas, when everything can be explained by greed and stupidity. There are no other explanations. In this case, this is an absolutely stupid statement from which it all began: "Let's pay in rubles for gas." He did not think where to come from. He did not think what would happen to new formulas. He did not think about what would happen to the contracts. The contracts recorded in what currency to pay, through which banks, in what sequence.

Gazprom unilaterally violates the terms of the contract. This is an arbitration, this is a punishment. It was necessary to get out of this stupid situation. He [Putin] tried to go out when they explained this case to him. Chancellor of Germany, Prime Minister Italy called and explained that this statement is idiocy. And therefore, a feigned scheme was invented.

Yes, we will tell everyone in Russia what you pay for rubles. In fact, you will still pay in currency only for some special bills.

He loudly announced that everyone who pays for gas would open special bills, as in Gazprom. In fact, by decree of it, in fact, it is written that Gazprombank himself must open these accounts. But the foreigners who pay, they do not give a damn, will be credited to some accounts of their money. Therefore, what is happening with some countries now, that is, some announcements are coming, we will pay, we will not do this. This is a policy.

- Where does the countries that fundamentally refused to follow this scheme will take gas in the coming months, to bite off other EU members?

- Poland resolves this issue. I think the gas pipeline will work in a month that comes from the crafts in the Norwegian Sea, in the North Sea through the territory of Denmark, through the Baltic Sea, that is, with its help they will receive additional gas volumes.

Second - they have a good gas receiving terminals. They built a new gas jumper with Lithuania and will be able to receive gas that Lithuania receives liquefied in the Klaipeda area. Well, then, from Germany, the Poles still receive gas along the same Yamal pipeline to Europe from Germany. So in Poland, I think, they will cope with this problem, and they were about to abandon the next year of all Gazprom contracts. Moreover, they will be able to even transport part of the gas further to those countries that need it, including for Ukrainian territory.

Bulgaria will be more difficult. The Bulgarian leadership announced that the European Union promised him to help with gas supplies somehow. But it will not be easy to do. It will be necessary to drive either through the territory of Hungary or through Serbia. But the Bulgarian has great hope for a gas pipeline. It is not very large, but, nevertheless, they should literally put into operation a gas pipeline from Greece in the summer. Gas should be delivered from Greece on it, and the Greeks will receive it, firstly, from the Azerbaijani region, and secondly, it will be gas that the Greeks receive in a liquefied form. They now have one terminal of the Start, which they are modernizing, and they are going to build the second, and the Bulgarians plan to enter there. And besides this, from Turkey they are going to receive gas, which they already have in the form of a contract from Azerbaijan in the amount of 1 billion cubic meters per year. That is, Azerbaijani gas will also be able to enter Bulgaria through Turkey.

- If the rest of the gas buyers continue to pay in the euro, will Gazprom really refuse supplies? Does Gazprom even have the opportunity to get out of the situation in which they got, keeping their face and continuing their business with Europe?

- There is no face to Gazprom. Everyone perfectly understands what kind of organization it is, this is a gun in Putin’s war against Europeans. Well, that is, some countries can say that yes, we still pay to the euro for Russian gas, but just like the Putin decree ordered them to do this. That is, there were no changes. Now, the fake about Austria was supposedly distributed in the Russian media that the Austrians either refuse or refuse to pay in rubles. There was absolutely no sense in this.

They paid earlier in the euro and again they will pay in the euro, as provided. In my opinion, in all contracts, in agreement of the parties, you can make a small correction that payment will not go through the bank that used to be in the contract, but through Gazprombank. Everything, point. Some agree, as I understand it, with this amendment, and some still insist on compliance with the terms of the contract, and they can go to the arbitration and raise very serious questions before Gazprom and demand compensation for losses.

- In Europe, gas prices are again striving for maximum, fuel is getting more expensive, and utilities are worth it. Is it a temporary shock or consequences will be felt for a long time?

- It's hard to say how it will be further. But so far, indeed, gas prices have grown up. Now, for example, the Norwegians who sell gas are very pleased to supply gas to Europe. Gazprom's behavior is quite happy with them. They had prevention, but during this time prices have grown a little in Europe, because there was no sufficient amount of Norwegian gas. Now the prevention has ended, and they supply gas to Europe at new increased prices. There is just a very large benefit. The Algerians are urgently going to expand their gas supply channels to Europe, because a very good situation is for this.

- And what do you think, Europe can abandon Russian gas with a quick jerk, as some politicians call? Or this process is more optimal to stretch for 5-10 years, let's say?

- That is, cutting the cat’s tail is not immediately, but in pieces? Someone agrees with this in Europe, someone categorically, of course, does not agree. I think the Baltic states urgently decided to do this. Now they have already decided that for their needs they will not buy gas from Gazprom. They no longer buy gas from Gazprom. But through them, gas can go somewhere in transit, in the same Kaliningrad, for example, through Lithuania.

And some countries, of course, categorically disagree with this. The same Hungary, for example, she does not want. And therefore, to say that all of Europe in solidly will suddenly do something, I think, prematurely.

-What will happen to Gazprom and in general with Russia in the scenario, when some of the European countries will still refuse supplies? Will it turn out to be reoriented to China, for example?

- Part will refuse. It is possible that half of the exports in the west direction will indeed bend, as they say. And where to put him further? Putin said: the first is the gasification of internal, Russian. But we saw that all the efforts in gasification were bullshit.

Every year they reported that they were allocating about $ 1,000,000, but the money went to some other things.

Russian consumers suffered from the fact that gasification actually went only to the Kuban. Therefore, to hope that now in some village with two old women for 200 kilometers from the gas pipeline suddenly stretched out the pipe, and there will be gasification, I would not. Second, Putin said: we will send to the south to the east. How does he represent to himself? Where? In Turkmenistan, where did your gas beg? Or to China?

Well, he will replace Europe with China. There is a withdrawal of pipes, but there is one pipe relatively small. It only in 2025 will reach the level of 38 billion cubic meters planned, and about 145-148 billion cubic meters were sold to Europe last year. It is impossible to compare this with the eastern direction.

There is nowhere to transfer volumes. So, you will have to turn the work and turn the development of new deposits. Due to the sanctions, you will have to put a cross on Gazprom gas liquefaction projects, on entering the LNG market. In the end, we will come to the fact that some wells will have to be closed or the same legendary deposits will have to be closed: “Bear”, “Jubilee”. There, maybe, you have to plug the holes in the ground so that the gas is still there.

- And what will happen to the "northern streams"? It turns out that money thrown to the wind.

- It was not commercial enterprises from the very beginning, but more political. They wanted to go around Ukraine from the north and south and introduced tremendous money there for the construction of a new gas transmission corridor from Yamal to the Baltic, to the Black Sea. This is such money crazy. Nobody will ever return this money.

There will be a monument to such a bottom. There are options in which the pipe could still be used. For example, if suddenly Europe cannot fully abandon Russian gas, then this very “northern stream-2” can be replaced by Ukrainian transit.