Translated material
"We are at the stage of liquidation of the NEP." Economist Igor Lipsitz - On the scenarios of the crisis in Russia
Even in the event of a speedy “special operation”, the change of power in Russia and the restoration of relations with the world of the country, it may take 8-10 years to restore the economy. If the course does not change, Russia will enter the crisis lane, which can be the largest over the past 100 years. The economist, ordinary professor of the Higher School of Economics, Igor Lipsits, in a large interview with Republic shared his forecasts about the future of Russia. In his opinion, we are observing the end of the market economy in our country.
"We have driven ourselves into a situation in which we will be a rebelliously spending a lot of money on the territory of Ukraine"
- In your opinion, what is useful for the Russian economy made the government from the moment of “special operation” and in conditions of unprecedented sanctions?
- The question is what - what “good” - we want to achieve. If you somehow revive the economy, then most likely the measures proposed by the government are insignificant. But if we want to reduce tension in society and create the feeling that the state has not abandoned, but care about it, then these methods are justified - they work. Halfrillion was allocated to families with children - "The state remembers people!" This is an instrument of social stabilization, but not economic.
- What are your expectations for the upcoming unemployment? Can the government smooth out this problem?
-The deeper we plunge into this situation, the greater the feeling of deja vu of the 90s. Then there was an unemployment of about 12-14%. But it was not total, since an understandable model was worked out. The authorities told the leaders of the enterprises: "Do what you want, but do not fire people." Then the practice was formed when the directors of large city -forming plants were blackmailed by the authorities - and they managed to do this well. They said: “Give money from the local budget to support enterprises, otherwise we will fire people, you will deal with them, and you will have a complete disaster in the city.” And these unfortunate local budgets, which already barely made ends meet, gave money to large city-forming enterprises so that they would not dismiss employees. And it turned out that there was no formal unemployment. People were in the so-called partially paid vacation or worked one to two days a week for a small salary. And I must say that in Russia such a model is used successfully - it arranges the authorities and, oddly enough, people. Apparently because in this case there is no final feeling that you are unemployed, there is a hope for the restoration of the previous employment and earnings.
So, most likely, the level of formal unemployment this year will be low - we will now repeat the model of hidden unemployment, which was in our country 30 years ago. But in 2023, it is already possible to increase unemployment and formal-when the business has resources for paying even minimal salaries and you will have to tighten the belts even tighter.
In addition, I note that we now have a huge number of state employees - over 50% of the able -bodied population. These people are so far in the zone of security from unemployment. They just say they will not increase the salary against the background of inflation, they will stop paying bonuses, reduce benefits. And they will not be able to openly be indignant, so as not to lose their jobs. So they will live worse, but will come to terms, calming themselves that they have a job and some kind of salary is dripping. But again, next year (if the military special operation goes into a chronic form, depleting the state budget), sequestration is possible-cutting out budget expenditures. And this can lead to a strict reduction in the number of employees and budget organizations.
Economist Igor Lipsits
Provided by Igor Lipsitsa
-But still part of the population, for example, as in the 90s-12-14%, will be really unemployed. How to occupy these people “released from work”?
- This is a difficult question. In Russia, there is not a single industry, perhaps, except for the construction and partly housing and communal services, which is in dire need of working hands. But the problem is also that now it is not clear whether the business can be carried out by such volumes of construction as before. It is not clear what the demand for housing in a situation of falling income of the population will be. So there are no special ideas, where to put the dismissed. Unless the public work in the parks. This was suggested by Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin in response to a threat of dismissal in the capital of 200 thousand people - those that worked in foreign companies that are now leaving the country.
But this is about Moscow - a rich city. And if you take small cities in the regions? There, and thus, it is unlikely that the problem of unemployment can be solved - the budgets are very dry, since they are filled with tax on citizens' income. Less income, fewer taxes from citizens, fewer opportunities for financing at least public works in such cities.
- The Russian economy inevitably awaits inflation - it was already, but now it will accelerate. How effective will the forced holding of prices for basic products be? They began to practice this before the “special operation” - probably now they will use such a tool more and more?
- When all kinds of military operations begin, then price regulation is inevitable, since the economy is influenced by panic moods of citizens. It is clear that for business these are additional problems. If the manufacturer of the products reduces supply due to prices that do not arrange it, then the authorities will tell him these deliveries to resume. And if he does not agree with this, then a criminal case will instantly start him, and he will faced a simple choice: either to make his goods almost without any benefit, but to be at large, or to fight for his rights to income as an owner of a private business, but to fall under the article and eventually lose both business and freedom.
So in the end, the market economy will be weak. In small and medium -sized businesses, its elements are likely to be preserved (even in the USSR there was a certain non -state industrial cooperation), but nothing more. The business will work in conditions of repression, production tasks in kind, coercion not to increase prices. Who will reconcile will remain free and will be able to at least feed his family. There will be no talk of business development.
General conclusion: The period of progressive development of the economy has ended. We are at the stage of liquidation of the NEP, we went through it. Some of our colleagues hope that we will have NEP 2.0. For example, my colleague, economist Alexander Auzan, is of this opinion. But I do not really understand what it is in the conditions of the current Russian state apparatus. I call our economy that is fading, degrading - this is clear to me.
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