Translated material
The system is played. Political scientist Gleb Pavlovsky - on the consequences of the war and the possibility of mobilization
To affirm anything in the days of the war is not that it is predicted. War is an event from which you do not get distracted. Today it is foolish to prove that the Russian system is inclined to fight, only how will it cope with the war already begun? It is clear that the question of the world is related to the question of its future.
The requests for predictions are in vain - in the clause of the fog of the war it is impossible to foresee, everything will solve weapons in the hands of people. Having withstand the first blow, Ukraine intensified, despite the loss of land. But Russia is important to us. How does the system of the Russian Federation change? Does a war introduce, still not finished, something new into this inanimate organism? Exhausting 1990–1991 The state body of the Russian Federation gave rise to the unprecedented borders and the population who refused to identify himself. 30 years have passed, and we are inside the new unprecedented - a large European war.
Planning failure
The war began by improvisation, being at first almost " Apparently, Western strategic developments played an angry joke in its planning. The pre -war consensus of experts proceeded from the rapid (“three days”) military victory of the Russian forces over Ukrainian. The Western press assured that by April the Zelensky government "would go into zoom." Moscow seriously perceived the forecasts of the fall of Kyiv and the collapse of the Ukrainian state. The pessimism of hostile strategists nourished the optimism of the Kremlin planning.
Without realizing the plans of the frontman, the system was not preparing to fight. Putin imposed the decision on the operation to hesitate to the “neighboring circle”, and she became a blow to the back for the Russian Federation. The Kremlin was preparing for the tough sanctions promised by America, but they saw them disposable before the military package. Preparing for a short war, Moscow did not think with an amazing business that they would fight with her too.
Icebreaker 2.0
Now it has become clear that Putin is a faithful reader of the books of Suvorov/Rezun about the planes of 1941 about the preventive war with Germany. Yes, he talked - a rare case when the President allows himself to criticize Stalin for imprusibility. The idea of a leading counterattack reveals the strategy: Putin fantasically moves in 1941 and conducts a blitzkrieg against the Ukrainian Wehrmacht occupied.
But the miracle on the Dnieper did not take place. Ukrainian fronts did not collapse, the state too. In Ukrainian lands, Russian forces stuck. Meanwhile, the February improvisation launched the ongoing escalation of sanctions in volumes unexpected by the Western governments themselves. The punitive flywheel is gaining momentum of the rage of European lower classes - every blow to Ukraine gives rise to a new expression of sanctions. The Russian system is not able to answer murderous punishment, while it itself is drawn into battles.
The tasks have many ways to solve them incorrectly. Until now, the difference between the Russian system was the minimum of irrevocable errors. Whatever crises overtaken, the system did not fall - a converter of complex tasks in simple tasks triggered. However, will such a simple unit be able to stop such a clear mistake of war? What if System has come for the Russian system Error ?
Meanwhile, she clapped with the Ukrainian space of power and gets away in the inertia of the military-strategic game. For a shocked system, the situation is clarified at first, and the sanctions raids are added to it additionally: it's time to survive.
Military parade in Moscow
Yuan Xinfang/Xinhua/Global Look Press
The consensus is overturning
For two months, the consensus of military experts turned over. Since the matter did not end in the defeat of Ukraine, the war was reinterpreted in the defeat of Moscow. The mantra “Putin will take Kyiv in three days” replaced Equalous “Putin troops defeated and flee”. Ukraine depicts the West fighting with Putin - it can not be allowed to lose, but Putin to win. But what would win here mean?
The war is waged from two fronts: one in Ukraine, and the second on the global scene of “hellish sanctions”, symbolically linked to Ukrainian resistance. The new Western utopia is to wait for the attenuation of hostilities under the oppression of the "moral failure of the Kremlin." They want to discuss what to do with Russia. But what about the war? The war is not to "develop". How much do not fight, you won’t wake up from the hassle in a cozy pre -war world.
The war on the remote
The Russian system is provided by the transaction of the ever -surviving population with the authorities. That is, total depolitization and demobilization of the masses, which is firmly promised - there are no more revolutions, no radical reforms, or wars for you. Strengthening the demobilizing structure led to the degradation of protests and confrontation to the authorities. Freed from mobilization to war, the population avoids mobilization for anti -war protests. This state of personal passivity is experienced by demobilized as sufficient freedom.
Of course, the Russian system suffered stress when at the end of February it was suddenly sent to fight to Ukraine. All its current managerial and economic plans collapsed. The apogee of stress was the panic evacuation of several hundred thousand citizens with rumors about mobilization. But Putin guessed not to experience a deal of the settlement with the authorities. Unlike the Soviet Union, the system cannot mobilize, maintaining stability. Putin did not check whether this was so, and gave the population to observe the battal scenes from afar. The “war on the remote” causes the same strong emotions that the experiences from watching the horror. But loyalty is not further affected by the attachment to the series.
The intensity of the war is limited by the right of the population to maintain a demobilized state as a guarantee of survival.
But this is usually for the system of the Russian Federation and in its pre -war condition. Here we enter the current fork of the Ukrainian war.
The new system of the system
The system of the Russian Federation expects Sasassens from Putin, not a blitzkrieg. Having entered Ukraine and occupying a serious territory, the system masters its war . These are everyday life - there is nowhere to rush, there is no need to rush. The situation is similar to that phase of the Second Chechen War, when in 2000-2002. A faint interest in the war far from Moscow stabilized the Early Putus status quo-how are they fighting? Well, okay ...
Slapping with Morena a kilometer per kilometer, the village behind the village, the village behind the village, the system of the Russian Federation grinds Ukraine. Having affinned Russian devastation with the Ukrainian, denationalizes the median lands of Eurasia. Russia once again brought down the chance of European unity for itself and acquired a new criminal status, perhaps he will show her a way out. In Russian history, a meeting with experience promises a meeting with a crime - this is a Russian way to identify itself. The system coldly rejects any responsibility that it is charged with. Acting on her own and foreign lands and destroying them (she does not know how to act in a different way), she creates debts that will pay-but who and when? The royal debts rejected by the Bolsheviks were paid for a hundred years later by Putin.
Ukraine does not have the strength to supplant Russian troops from its territory, which extends the training ground of Russian maneuvering. Some of the Ukrainians turn into the settlements of the Russian Federation involuntarily, and the reconstruction of a preventive war with the "advanced forces of NATO" is played at the training ground.
An unrecognized war entered the Ukrainian-Russian life. Stateness, Nasev on statehood, breeds of mutants of enmity, among which Russia has to live. A nation of demobilized can fight so endlessly, combining the poor life with a low intensity war.
The system is not ready for the future, where it has to dwell among the general distrust of the Russians. But Ukraine is not forever remaining a hero of the admiring West. Enjoy should be converted until they die out in the thickness of the refugees. The Prime Minister of Her Majesty is walking around Kyiv, but Ukrainian oil storages are burning. Ukrainian defeats subject Russia to terrifying sanctions attacks, but Ukrainian victories do not increase the export of Ukrainian grain. Only the world or truce will stop grinding and overwhelming by the system of the Russian Federation of the Ukraine system-there are no good solutions here. But there were still possible.
President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky and UN Secretary General Antoniu Gaterrish
The Presidential Office of Ukraine / Global Look Press
Open military final
The terrifying Great Patriotic War transformed the regional peasant power into a planetary anti -fascist empire, which would not be born otherwise. Having passed the edge of death, Red Russia itself did not understand how it survived 1941. Having triumphed over the armada of the forces that went to destroy it, she began to something other, unprecedented in European history-the co-author of post-war globalization.
Is something similar again? The Russian Federation, the regional fragment of the USSR, entering Ukraine and digging into its national body, is changing. In the lands of Eurasia, a tectonic zone woke up, where the war was only a passing episode.
As you know, the secret of the atomic bomb is only that it is possible. The dirty secret of these days that a large war in Europe is also possible. This war (which should not have been) already taking away thousands of lives, showed the system of the Russian Federation an unaccounted chance of survival. Looking at the theaters of military operations, you can notice that the system survives disgusting. But what will survive will no longer be “Putinism” (this Russian edition of the theory of conspiracy) and not the pre -war of the Russian Federation, the bright emission of 1991.
Russia will find itself in the company of uncomfortably warlike nations. Türkiye, Israel, India are not countries for peaceful walks. When discussing Russian military operations, naturally, you will compass the layman, dodging bombs and missiles in your area. There will be many more pain and crimes, there are no guarantees of survival in the final. Again, something strange is started in these unfortunate lands. De Profundis arises an unfamiliar global landscape with a skewed hostile face. And it is better to prepare, because the face is addressed to us.