"Contributions can extend the term of military service and send immediately to the war." Cit founder - about mobilization options in Russia

The British Ministry of Defense said that Vladimir Putin could announce universal mobilization during the celebration of Victory Day on May 9. British Minister of Defense Ben Wallace, on the air of the LBC radio station, said that the Russian president can declare war on the "world Nazism". According to him, Putin can do this "for the sake of the last blow to Ukraine." Ben Wallace believes that mass mobilization in Russia would become a "recognition of failure."

Advisor to the head of the Office of the President of Ukraine Mikhail Podolyak, commenting on this news, wrote: "Mobilization in Russia is a national startup, the opportunity to exhaust the latest accumulations from the poor population."

Universal mobilization in the so -called "LPR" and "DPR" was declared five days before the Russian invasion of Ukraine - February 19. The inhabitants of Lugansk and Donetsk reported that the commandant’s office on the same day began to grab men right on the streets: they took their passports, put them on buses and took them to the collection points. According to incoming data, many men of self -proclaimed republics continue to hide.

Is it possible to mobilize in Russia and how it can take place, on the present day, Ruslan Leviev , the founder of the investigative group Conflict Intelligence Team, told .

- In fact, mobilization is really possible in the sense that technically there are no restrictions for its announcement. Moreover, if you look at the situation at the front, then in order to achieve at least part of the goals that were originally declared - for example, to reach the administrative borders of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions - mobilization needs to be carried out. It can be seen that with the current forces it will not even be possible to surround the Ukrainian troops. I'm silent about completely capturing the Donetsk and Lugansk regions. But Putin will go to this or not - it is difficult to climb into his head, given that he sees mobilization as some political consequences. This is a serious risk in terms of his rating. Therefore, it is difficult to say whether he will go for it or not.

Plus, mobilization can be very different. This can be in the format of total mobilization, when all reservists are driven into the army, which we do not really believe in, because we need to unpack a lot of warehouses. And it is unlikely that everyone is enough for the necessary equipment, uniforms. But some partial mobilization from some border areas or recently demolished can happen.

If such partial mobilization occurs, then for 200 thousand an additional person to find equipment and uniforms are quite realistic. Then this will really seriously change the course of the war. Then it will already be possible to start talking about whether Russia has a chance to completely capture the Donetsk and Lugansk regions.

- How many people assume complete or partial mobilization?

- There are no strict assessments. They can mobilize as much as they want. Depending on how much they need, firstly. Secondly, depending on what consequences they count on. Because when you remove people from the economy, it harms it very much. Therefore, you need to somehow balance. On the one hand, you need additional strength to go on the attack. On the other hand, you need to not aggravate the already difficult situation of the economy, plus not to bring down the president’s rating. Therefore, they themselves can declare in advance: "We are going to mobilize such and such a number of people." The figure can be absolutely any.

Of course, we do not believe in total mobilization. It is simply incredible, because it would have brought down the economy even more. But partially, let's say: "We want to call 100 thousand people," this is quite possible.

Plus, this can be in the format that those who are those who are now demobilized in May can be called back to the army or not to be demobilized. Both to them and other conscripts of the autumn of 2021 can extend the term of military service, for example, for another six months or for another year. And send them immediately to the war. This is also possible. A lot options. There is no such that there is a strict template and you must choose one of several options.

- And what are the points in which you draw conclusions that this partial mobilization is quite possible?

- There is a very sharp need for this mobilization, and there are opportunities for weapons of so many people. There are mobilization warehouses that can be unpacked, get the equipment from there, bring it to combat readiness, get uniforms for 200 thousand people, and get machines for them. And put it all.

The signs that mobilization is already being prepared, we have not yet noticed. We did not notice that the mobilization warehouses were fully unpacked to be taken out of there in a huge amount for potential mobilization. There were separate points when we saw that people were booking at enterprises. Armor is when you work at a strategically important enterprise, and for the state your work in civilian life is much more important than if you went to the front. For such people, they make the so -called reservation, enterprises take a military man away from them, thereby protecting them from mobilization. We saw such moments, but this was carried out by the enterprises themselves. This is not like the military registration and enlistment office told everyone to book their people, but the enterprises themselves did so.

- Perhaps they are simply reinsured?

- Yes. We have not yet seen signs of impending mobilization, but from the point of view of the military strategy, the need, of course, is in it.

- The General Staff of Ukraine believes that the possibility of mobilization in Russia depends on the battle for the Donbass: will it be successful for Russia. Do you agree with this? What do you think are the solutions to mobilization depend on?

- According to the battle for the Donbass, it is already clear that it is unsuccessful. By May 9, nothing will be achieved: it will not be possible to reach the administrative boundaries of the regions, it will not be possible to surround the Ukrainian group of troops, it will not be possible to solve the issue with Azovstal. None of this will come out by May 9. Accordingly, there will be nothing to present from some victories by May 9. And, obviously, the war will continue in the future. Based on this, it is already clear that the battle for the Donbass is gradually playing, because Ukraine receives new weapons, it has new forces, and it can soon, for example, go over a large -scale counterattack within a month. And then the situation of Russian forces in the Donbass will aggravate even more. Therefore, from the point of view of what is happening on the battlefield, from the point of view of the battle for the Donbass, it is already clear that mobilization is needed.

I think here Vladimir Putin will look at possible political consequences: how the society will react, how the economy will react, its rating will collapse or not. This is what will be solved by the issue: will be mobilization or not.

-Is it possible to conclude that this is why the announced battle for the Donbass froze at some stage? Or do you not think so?

-Due to the fact that there is not enough strength, of course, the battle for the Russian forces progresses very slowly. Yes, they advance behind the fire shaft - when at first artillery and aircraft are actively working on settlements, and then land formations come in. But they move extremely slowly. In some places - up to one kilometer per day, which is very few by military standards.

If Ukraine had not supplied weapons, then at this pace this battle could still last months. And Ukraine also supplies weapons. Therefore, now the pace is very weak, and then it can worsen even more. Therefore, the situation is now stuck, and it is already clear that it is not possible to effectively conduct battle for the Donbass. No lessons from the first phase of the operation were extracted.