War rating

Dmitry Oreshkin and Andrey Kolesnikov - about how many Russians support the war against Ukraine

Sergey Medvedev: The third month is the criminal war of Russia against Ukraine . And, according to public opinion polls, most Russians support this war or refrain from opinion about it. What is the rating of war? How much can you trust public opinion polls? Political scientists Andrei Kolesnikov and Dmitry Oreshkin participate.

Video version of the program

Correspondent: Even the data of an independent Levada Center suggests that most respondents, 53%, definitely support the actions of the Russian armed forces, 28% rather support, do not support 14%, and another 5% found it difficult to answer. Mostly residents of large cities and young Russians do not support mainly. Among those who support are several groups of people - these are the audience of the State Propaganda, and supporters of the imperial Russian world, and those who were originally against the war, but since it began, consider it necessary to win in it. However, many sociologists say that it is difficult to make a single portrait of such a person, and there are different forms of such support, and it is now impossible to measure the mood of Russians. Many have not yet formed an opinion, and not all respondents are ready to frankly talk about the war.

Sergey Medvedev: We have a political scientist, geographer Dmitry Oreshkin . Are you surprised by the current mass support of the war?

Dmitry Oreshkin: I thought, yes, the rating would grow, at least for reasons of historical experience. Putin had three surges in popularity, and all three were connected with the war - the Chechen war, the Georgian war, the "Crimea of our" (the first Ukrainian), and now the fourth. The surge was expected, but I did not think that it would be so high. If we take the Levada Center (after all, he is a foreign agent, so you can trust), then he has a survey every month-"Things in the country go in the right or in the wrong direction?" In December, there were 47% of those who believed that affairs in the country were going in the right direction, in January-50% (the effect of Kazakhstan probably worked, when Russia fed so successfully), in February-52%, but in March it had already jumped up to 70 with something. This is an obvious effect of the Ukrainian war.

Putin had three surges of popularity, and all three are related to the war

At the same time, sociologists, after all, measure not what people think, but what they say, but people often say what is considered a socially approved norm, that is, correctly support the homeland at a difficult moment - and they say that they support. Those 14%who say that they do not support are quite rigidly rationally thinking characters who are not afraid to fix their position, which is also worth a lot. After all, they call on the phone, and the Soviet person has experience: since they called on the phone, then everyone knows about me, therefore, if I do not support, I will better say that I have not decided, and those 4-5%that have not been determined, you can safely add to 14 that spoke out against.

Sergey Medvedev: Is it so important that people think to themselves?

Dmitry Oreshkin: No, it is important what they say.

Sergey Medvedev: To continue this war, you need an electrication - it took place.

Dmitry Oreshkin: There is an electrication, but it is not the one that you can rely on at a difficult moment.

Sergey Medvedev: Why? This does not give an additional resource of legitimacy?

Dmitry Oreshkin

Dmitry Oreshkin: Gives, of course! Until people have experienced what is called cognitive dissonance or real shock. I would call it “sofa troops”: a person is sitting on the couch, watching TV, and he is pleased when they say that he rose from his knees, sent all this damned West, forced himself to respect. But if you invite this person to the trenches, he will behave a little differently.

Sergey Medvedev: But these people reproduce the existence of the current regime with their inaction.

Dmitry Oreshkin: They arrange a regime, but until they feel serious damage to their own affairs. It is clear that none of this sofa army is going to go to fight, but the power of mass support is created in power when you have a close -knit and single people behind you. In fact, the picture is much more complicated, just the methods of modern selective survey sociology cannot raise this. It is rather that what Alexei Levinson is doing in Levada-this is a focus group. From conversations with him it can be seen: many sincerely believe that "in this way we rise, are freed from the dictates of the West and, therefore, we must live better, richer." And here the cognitive dissonance begins - it does not work richer.

People reproduce the existence of the current regime with their inaction

Sergey Medvedev: This, apparently, did not yet understand this. Both sanctions and deficits have not yet hit.

Dmitry Oreshkin: Of course. Until the old reserves in stores are spent until a person suddenly feels that there are no spare parts for an imported car, that prices are rising and income falling until he loses his job, he will theoretically rejoice. But when practice pecks with a fried rooster in a well-known place, something will begin here.

Sergey Medvedev: I wonder which way will it begin?

Dmitry Oreshkin: In different!

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Sergey Medvedev: They will say: "This is the West! This is Baiden that I have no microchip, spare parts!"

Dmitry Oreshkin: Of course! This is the simplest. Already now, the patriotic community is running on to Vladimir Putin, because, from their point of view, he was weak, it was necessary to smear this Ukraine for a long time, equalize with the ground and triumphantly join Kyiv, because they had social expectations that did not live up to. And a more cautious audience prefers to keep silent, because there is no hunt for a punitive policy. But, in principle, they also experience some misunderstanding. Yes, we unfold the victorious offensive, unfold, unfold, unfold, destroy someone all the time there, apply high-precision strokes, and there is no weighty real feeling of victory and, most likely, will not be the most terrible for them.

Sergey Medvedev: The political scientist and publicist Andrei Kolesnikov join us. More than once or two in our conversation, the word "Soviet man" sounded. Maybe this is even wider - a Russian person who does not think of himself outside state logic. Is it right or not right, but this is my state, and therefore I must fit for this war. Maybe this?

People understand: there is something to be ashamed for, but we must show that we don’t give a damn about it

Andrey Kolesnikov: This is a very important motivation, maybe for many even the main one. Indeed, before this "special operation" people did not want a war, and when it began, the mood appeared in its favor, the appetite came during meals. And the longer, it becomes tougher and absurd what is happening before our eyes, the more tough support from those who really support this business, who are ready to tear the vest with a cry: "But I'm not ashamed!"

By the way, this T -shirt with the inscription "I am not ashamed" is very symptomatic. This means that people understand: there is something to be ashamed of, but we must show that we don’t give a damn about it. We will not have smartphones, spare parts - and hell with it: we ourselves will produce from improvised material, but we will be proud, lonely and all that other. Unfortunately, this is a primitive consciousness, this is an archaization of everything, but such is the logic of this "special military operation", which turns into something permanent, and thereby we enter some completely new state.

Sergey Medvedev: To what extent is it a TV, and to what extent is it internal, interpretation? Both on the “present time” and on Radio Liberty there was a plot about the 25-year-old hipster from St. Petersburg, who was a restaurateur, and then went to Ukraine and, as he says, “wet dill”, looting, uses all the benefits of life. He probably already has hundreds of thousands of subscribers in Telegram. This is not a television thing, but some kind of internal resentment, a thirst for revenge that sat in a large segment of the population.

Andrey Kolesnikov

Andrei Kolesnikov: I think, indeed, there was a kind of demand for some action on the part of the state, which would confirm in practice a sense of superiority over others, that we are strong. Actually, Putin gave this tool to people. It was probably sleeping demand, but it had to be woken up. Putin gradually woke up these archaic feelings in people. He managed to do this when he began to say that the collapse of the USSR was a humiliating history, the greatest geopolitical catastrophe. People seemed to wake up: but really were humiliated, we did not think about it, but now it is worth thinking. Then there was Crimea. Then there was a kind of reassurance after Crimea, the effect of normalizing life. And suddenly, from this normalization, we again entered a state of permanent hysteria. And inside this hysteria, this demand, which reacted to the proposal from above, worked for many. For someone-no, someone is horrified. But in horror, by the way, a significant part of the population, and even those who support the war, are also in the permanent psychological martial situation of the impassable nightmare.

Sergey Medvedev: It turns out that society regularly needs a war.

Even those who support the war are also in the permanent psychological martial situation of an impenetrable nightmare

Andrei Kolesnikov: It turns out that we live in some very archaic circumstances with archaic sensations and perceptions. This is rather the logic of the XIX or XX centuries. Territorial thinking, thinking in the spheres of influence is very archaic, however, it works. The dictators of all time have always said that war should purify the air, raise people. It turns out that this is what is happening.

Dmitry Oreshkin: When the Soviet Union collapsed, all the countries of the former USSR had very serious economic difficulties: one way of life disappeared, the other did not appear, the places of labor collapsed. It was hard for everyone. But the small countries, having freed, psychologically compensated for this difficult economic situation by the fact that they had their own state: “But we are now free, independent” - Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Georgia, Moldova, anyone. And the Russians were not so! They experienced both the economic crisis and the crash of the collapse of their state. That is, the neighbors had a minus per plus, and we had two disadvantages.

The second is Maslow's notorious pyramid . The first floor is to find food, clothes, housing and so on, the second floor is safety, and the third floor, when it has already solved the problem with food and safety, is self -expression, self -esteem in society. So, thanks to the difficult reforms of the 90s, we had a convertible ruble, private property, market economy, goods appeared in stores. The first level was decided. A sense of security - someone like, but in general it was not so bad. But the feeling of self -esteem ... The people who ate, got drunk and dressed, even bought a car for themselves, or maybe even acquired an apartment in a mortgage, wanted greatness. And here Vladimir Putin entered the stage, who, with the help of experts from the FSB, very clearly caught these moods, and he successfully saddled this wave and flew on it at least 20 years, rising.

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Sergey Medvedev: Explaining why the “swamp” movement of 2011–2012 arose, we talked about the same Maslow pyramid: people rose a little upstairs and wanted self -esteem, free elections.

Andrey Kolesnikov: Minority.

Sergey Medvedev: And now it turns out that, having eaten, the conditional middle class wanted the imperial greatness of Russia.

Andrei Kolesnikov: Probably, this is in the current circumstances a substitute for the spiritual in the sense that this third floor is now working like this. Another hypothesis is the elevator hypothesis. In accordance with it, when a certain level of well -being is achieved, a person begins to demand democracy, his own rights and freedoms working political institutions.

Territorial thinking, thinking areas of influence is very archaic, however, it works

In principle, what happened in 2011-12 seemed to confirm this hypothesis. When this story ended, Putin instead of 2012 presented 2014 in the person of Crimea: then, after all, in the liberal minority there were schisms about whether it was good or bad. At the same time, the phenomenon of Sobyanin’s well -being arose, when the local commercial intelligentsia said: "Yes, this democracy is for the hell, we have the best premieres, the best restaurants, the best salaries." And as it turned out, without democracy, without a rotation of power, we come to actually military position. And then another spirituality arises: we were not equal with this West, and now we will be equal. We will again recall that we are more spiritual, that we have stronger scrapers, and they live in the world of pureb. Here we will show them now! Unfortunately, we came to another, archaic spirituality, and demanded it. True, this happens against the background of not quite economic well -being. After a few months, let's see how it will work with the population.

Sergey Medvedev: And now "we can be as cool as Americans: they bombed Kosovo, and we will bomb Ukraine."

Dmitry Oreshkin: At the same time, it is very important that Putin nevertheless became president of the province. This can be seen simply based on the results of official elections, even given all the falsifications. Putin is kept due to the massive influx of falsified, in particular, votes in Chechnya, in other republics and in the Russian province. By the way, mostly the Russian province is fighting.

Sergey Medvedev: And it is interesting that the so -called "two hundredths" do not come to the MKAD: in Balashikha, prominent, Shchelkovo, corpses come, but there are no killed from Moscow.

Dmitry Oreshkin: Because the country is led by shallow people, and they understand that it is better not to touch Moscow.

If the first 20 years of Vladimir Putin, he very competently used the longing of most Russians in greatness, then in the 23rd year of the authorities, since there are no real successes, including on the battlefield, fear in the pseudo-Soviet model will play fear. Until the recent past, this was not so. People wanted greatness, and they received it from Putin, they supported him. As this cognitive dissonance will increase (it seems to be promised greatness, but somehow there is no sensation), the power, intimidating component will take over.

People wanted greatness, and they received it from Putin, they supported him

And this is also an element of Soviet mentality. People live badly, poorly. First of all, they need to constantly feed the fact that "but we are building a bright future for our children, now we will endure, and then it will be good." Secondly, you need to find traitors and those who are to blame for that I feel bad. And I am enthusiastic about these five -minute hatred - "shoot like mad dogs!" People understand: something is wrong, there is no success-it means that you need to find the guilty. Who is to blame? The fifth column paid by the West propagandists, national traitors. And the worse the real deeds of Vladimir Putin will go, the greater a role in social life will play the search for enemies. Public opinion cannot say to himself: "Guys, I was mistaken, I was a fool, I was divorced on meakin." No! Everything was right, but struck in the back.

Sergey Medvedev: Then it turns out that this is not only Putin’s war, but also the war of Russia? Is it like the answer to the question - did Putin produce Russia or Russia Putin?

Dmitry Oreshkin: I believe that Russia produced Putin. There was a request, and Putin came. Zyuganov could have come to his place. After each jerking forward there is a natural rollback back. Putin is the fruit of Russia. And now Putin has already headed Russia and focused it. And Russia will look over the shoulder for a long, long, long time and think: when did they deceive me, and who deceived me? Liberals, Yeltsin? Is Vladimir Putin really? Until this is aware, we will knead blood and dirt in this bloody dead end.

Sergey Medvedev: Unfortunately, this war is now part of the political, economic, social project of all that Russia that has developed over the past 20 years, and maybe over the past 200 years. This war is waged by Russia, not just the Russian army. And, unfortunately, the sociology and current moods of Russian society, drawing the letter Z, confirms this.