The EU will introduce an oil embargo, new sanctions against Sberus and the sale of Tinkoff Bank under pressure

Already today the European Commission will present a project of the sixth sanctions package from the embargo to Russian oil. Its parameters turned out to be tougher than it could be assumed: the European Commission offers to completely abandon the import of Russian oil by November, oil products - until the end of 2022. Hungary and Slovakia will give 20 months in order to exclude. The second main event of the long weekend was the interview of Oleg Tinkov NYT, in which the businessman said that he sold Tinkoff Bank under the pressure of the Kremlin “for 3% of the fair price”.

Oil embargo and other sanctions

On Tuesday evening, the European Commission sent the EU participating countries a project of the sixth sanctions package against Russia, and on the morning on Wednesday the head of EC Ursula von der Lyain announced that the package will be presented today. The main (but not the only) item is a ban on the import of Russian oil and oil products.

This does not mean that the sixth package is approved precisely in the form in which it will be presented - today its official discussion will begin. To introduce a package, a unanimous statement is necessary by all 27 EU countries, and some of them do not agree with all the proposals of the European Commission, writes WSJ, who talked with European diplomats. But the general consensus on the need to introduce an oil embargo has been achieved.

Von der Lyien in the morning did not talk about the detailed parameters of the proposed oil embargo. But on the eve of WSJ got acquainted with the project sent on the eve of the EU countries - and it looks tough. The European Commission offers to completely close the import of raw oil from Russia within 6 months after the adoption of the package, and until the end of 2022, and the import of petroleum products. For the most dependent on Russian oil, Hungary and Slovakia will be made an exception - they will be allowed to maintain Russian imports for 20 months. The draft was sent to the EU member countries in the evening of May 3 and will be discussed on May 4. WSJ interlocutors expect that the plan will be approved before the end of the week.
Among the countries that are unhappy with the parameters of the embargo, WSJ calls the Czech Republic and Bulgaria: according to them, these countries believe that they should be provided with delay, as Hungary and Slovakia. The representative of the Hungarian government on Monday warned that the country could impose a veto on a full oil embargo. But Reuters, who was the first to learn about a 20-month delay, wrote that after this concession to Hungary, Slovakia and the adjacent to them, Austria promised not to block the package.
Oil processing in Russia continues to decline without an official embargo - in April, Russian refineries reduced volumes by 7%, Kommersant writes . In May, when the largest traders will stop purchases at least from state oil wages, the fall will accelerate, the newspaper suggests. Alternative buyers of Russian oil are small Chinese refinery, which take raw materials from Russia with large discounts, writes FT. The discount of the Russian Urals in relation to Brent is now about $ 35. But even taking into account this unprecedented in the history of the spread, the average annual price of Urals will be $ 70–75 per barrel - more than enough to balance the Russian budget, the main analyst of one of the largest Russian banks said in April. Such a conjuncture will allow the Kremlin for at least 1.5–2 years to finance all expenses, including military operations in Ukraine and indexing social payments, he noted. But the full and fast oil embargo of the EU can significantly worsen the situation.
The second most important point of the sixth EU package is sanctions against banks. Von der Lyain on Wednesday in the morning said that the package will include sanctions against Sbering, which will turn it off from SWIFT, as well as restrictions against two other large Russian banks. According to Politico, we are talking about the ICD and the Rosselkhozbank.
Also, the European Commission, according to von der Lyain, proposes to ban the broadcasting of Russian state television channels in Europe and introduce personal sanctions against the military suspected of committing war crimes, including the murder of civilians in Buch. According to AFP, sanctions can be imposed against Patriarch Kirill.

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Tinkov on the sale of a bank under pressure

The founder of Tinkoff Bank and one of the symbols of SELF-MADE of Russian business Oleg Tinkov on Monday night told NYT, as in fact (according to his version), a 35% Bank of Bank Vladimir Potanin had a deal.

According to Tinkov, the day after his sharp anti -war post on Instagram (belongs to the recognized extremist META), published on April 19, representatives of the presidential administration contacted the Tinkoff Bank and threatened to nationalize the bank if he did not break all the connections with Tinkov.
This is what he explained to the sale of 35% of the shares of Tinkoff Bank Vladimir Potanin, which he calls "desperate, fire sales." “I could not discuss the price. It was like taking a hostage - you must take what they give, ”said Tinkoff Nyt. Kommersant wrote a few days before the transaction that Tinkov’s package can be estimated at $ 300 million - eight times cheaper than the market value of the package on the Moscow Exchange and is 6.5 times cheaper than for the failed transaction with Yandex in 2020.
Friends with ties in the power organs told Tinkov that he should be afraid of his life. After that, he hired bodyguards, and with the reporters The New York Times talked from the "location that is not revealed."
Tinkov said that he was grateful to Potanin for the opportunity to save at least some money, but, according to him, he sold his stake in the bank for 3% of fair value.
The bank itself said NYT that they did not confirm the version of events presented by Tinkov, the bank management did not receive any threats.
Tinkov told Nyt that many of his acquaintances of large businessmen and representatives of the state elite in a private order told him that they agreed with his anti -war position, but "they are all afraid." “I realized that Russia no longer exists as a state. I knew that Putin's regime was bad. But, of course, I could not think that this would acquire such a catastrophic scale, ”Tinkov said to the publication and suggested that Putin would remain in power for a long time.
On Tuesday, Tinkov commented on the sale of the bank and his own parting with Russia on his Instagram. “I cannot calmly earn in the country that wages war with a neighbor, killing civilians and children <...>. I do not know how much I have to live, but I definitely do not want to die with these billions, but “a“ scum, a coward and chm ”, like 90% of all the oligarchs of Russia. Cowards, you have one life and you need to live it as a person, ”Tinkov wrote and added that“ I take Tinkoff and La Datcha brands from the country. The press service of Tinkoff Bank replied that all the rights to the Tinkoff brand belong to the bank. But Vedomosti notes that the bank uses a license brand, and it belongs to a company from the British Virgin Islands.

What else happened over the weekend

Putin signed a decree on Russian counter-sanctions “in connection with the unfriendly actions of foreign states and international organizations”-in fact, these will be mirror sanctions similar to blocking sanctions (inclusion in SDN registration) of the United States. The decree prohibits Russian companies and individuals to make transactions and fulfill obligations under contracts with persons under Russian sanctions, as well as send products and raw materials from the territory of Russia to their address. The government must approve the list of persons under sanctions within ten days.
Vyacheslav Volodin proposed “confisc” the assets of businessmen from the “unfriendly” countries located in the Russian Federation. So, according to the speaker of the State Duma, one should answer the bill adopted in the United States, "allowing Ukraine to transfer frozen assets of Russian companies and citizens." In the original text of the bill, it is proposed not to transfer assets directly, but to sell them and transfer to Ukraine the proceeds.
The CNN agency stopped working in Russia due to the Fake Law with reference to the opinion of unnamed US officials and Western countries that Vladimir Putin may officially announce the war with Ukraine on May 9. This would allow the mobilization of reservists, the agency notes. CNN, including referring to the statement of British Minister of Defense, Ben Wallace on the air of LBC Radio last week and Pentagon briefings.
The Pope Francis invited President Putin to meet in Moscow, he said in an interview with Corriere Della Sera published today. According to his assessment, the Kremlin needs this channel, but the answer has not yet been received. Francis criticized Patriarch Kirill, who “should not turn into a Putin’s altar service,” but noted that Russia's invasion of Ukraine could be partially provoked by “NATO barking at the door”.