Siemens is leaving the Russian market, the forecast of the Central Bank and the reduction in AliExpress Russia

The Central Bank predicts preservation, but not strengthening sanctions, and balance in the economy in mid-2023

The Central Bank's report on a monetary policy entitled “Large-scale transformation of the Russian economy” predicts that the lower point of reduction in GDP will be passed at the end of 2022, and by the middle of 2023 a stable equilibrium will be reached. Judging by the document, he does not expect increased pressure on the Russian economy and new shocks.

The main parameters of the forecast of the Central Bank, which were included in the report on the DCP, were published last week. The regulator expects inflation at the level of 18–23% according to the results of the current year, 5–7% next year and return to target 4% in 2024. The fall in GDP, according to Bank of Russia, will be 8-10%this year, at the next GDP it will not change at best, in the worst one will fall by another 3%, and in 2024 will increase by 2.5–3.5%.

In addition to the forecast component, in a report on the DCP, the regulator published on Wednesday, for the first time, explains why the Russian economy reacted to the “special operation”, sanctions, trade embargoes and the introduction of currency control in this way and not otherwise. “Kommersant” drew attention to this. Relatively moderate (with such sanctions pressure), a reduction in GDP by 8-10% is explained by a strong cyclic growth of the economy at the beginning of the year, which in February had signs of future overheating, but was interrupted by a “special operation” and imposed sanctions. Without this effect, the fall of GDP, which is now predicted at the peak (fourth quarter of 2022) in 12.5–16.5%, could be deeper.

Also, as Kommersant notes, speaking of a decrease in output this year, the Central Bank uses a rarely used term “sequences”. It is likely that it is due to the consistent, in the chain, problems, the gradual resolution of which (the search for new suppliers, markets, counterparties) will lead to the restoration of output. The Central Bank expects equilibrium by the end of 2023-the beginning of 2024.

The short period of adaptation of the economy, which should be more fully completed by mid-2023, means that adaptation will occur de facto without large investments, a pure change in power load, reorienting logistics, setting chains and sales markets, that is, with inevitable losses, Kommersant writes.

In addition, in the Central Bank, according to the report, they are waiting for the “moderate” growth of unemployment in structural transformation, a slightly greater volatility of the ruble, a discount on Russian export while maintaining a record surplus of trading balance in 2022. The report involves the preservation of sanctions until 2024, but does not provide for their strengthening or new shocks.

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Siemens leaves Russia

The German manufacturer of electrical engineering, electronics, energy and medical equipment Siemens announced leaving the Russian market. The company recalled that after the start of the "special operation" has already suspended international deliveries to Russia and Belarus.

“We condemn the war in Ukraine and decided to conduct an orderly process of coagulation of our industrial activity in Russia. This was a difficult decision, given the obligation to take care of our employees and long -standing relations with customers in the market, where we have been working for almost 170 years, ”said the president and general director of Siemens Roland Bush.

Siemens is one of the main suppliers of energy equipment to Russia, Interfax notes . The company, in particular, owns Siemens Transformers and 65% in the joint venture with “power machines”. Siemens also included in Siemens Gamesa is an Enel Russia partner in the implementation of projects in the field of renewable energy. In addition, in Russia, Siemens and the Sinara group have a joint venture Ural Locomotives, which produces Swallow electric trains.

Italian Prime Minister announced the payment of Germany Gas in rubles

Italian Prime Minister Mario Draga contrary to the statements of EU officials believes that European companies can pay for Russian gas in rubles without violating sanctions. Moreover, according to him, the largest German importer of gas has already paid through the account in Gazprombank, as required by the decree of Vladimir Putin.

“There is no official statement about what is a violation of sanctions,” Bloomberg quotes the words of the drag. “No one said anything about whether ruble payments violate sanctions.” In fact, he added, “most gas importers have already opened ruble accounts in Gazprombank”, and the largest German importer paid in rubles.

The largest buyer of Russian gas in Germany is Uniper, notes Bloomberg. The company denies that it made payment for gas in rubles. The Uniper representative refused to comment on the information about opening an account in Gazprombank. Earlier, Bloomberg reported that Gazprom is trying to convince European partners that they can pay gas supplies without violating sanctions.

Bell.club Live

Special ether: charity under sanctions

The sanctions imposed after the start of events in Ukraine dealt a heavy blow to Russian charitable funds and their wards. Foreign donors can no longer transfer money to Russia, the business suspended or closed charitable programs, many private donors are forced to save or left the country. At the same time, there are more and more people who need help.

Already today, on May 12 at 19.00, on a special broadcast on the Bell.club Live channel, we will try to figure out what future is now waiting for the sphere of charity in Russia and how to help.

We discuss:

• What problems charity funds faced after February 24 and how this crisis differs from the previous ones;
• How the field of charity in Russia is arranged and what threatens the stop of the activities of NPOs;
• How to support funds in a situation where many companies are forced to reduce budgets for charity, and citizens' incomes are falling.

Our guests:

• Sofya Zhukova, director of the Foundation "Need help";
• Marina Mikhailova, Director of the Garant Group of Non -Profit Organizations;
• Lida Moniava, founder of the House with a Lighthouse Foundation;
• Ekaterina Shergova, director of the Foundation "Give Life".

Moderator: Natalya Kaminarskaya, director of the Blagosphere Center.

Join the broadcast and ask your question!

AliExpress Russia reduces employees

The Russian-Chinese marketplace "AliExpress Russia" reduced part of the employees, Vedomosti reports with reference to sources. The company did not answer questions. According to one of the Vedomosti interlocutors, dismissal affected up to 40% of current personnel. Reductions began a month ago, the source adds. In particular, according to him, they reduced the directions that turned out to be “irrelevant” after the start of the “special operation” and the introduction of sanctions, this affected the export and import of goods (own purchases).

Experts warn that this is only the first wave of staff optimization in online trading. According to Mikhail Burmistrov, general director of Infoline Analytics, all market participants are forced to turn off export areas. According to the commercial director of Hh.ru, Andrei Panteleev, in March-April the number of open vacancies from e-commerce companies decreased by 19% compared with the period from January to February 2022. According to him, logistics and administrative functions are primarily subject to optimization.

What else happened overnight:

- The unification of the state banks - VTB, the “discoveries” and the Crimean RNKB - is planned to be completed in the first half of 2023, and recognized Kommersant. According to the publication, they want to attach the “discovery” to VTB, and the RNKB will retain a separate legal entity and the leadership (the Bank is headed by the native of VTB Mikhail Yakunin). The current head of the Otkritie Mikhail Zadornov may leave the bank and join the management of the Central Bank.

- The US Presidential Administration Joe Biden has developed a guide to exchange intelligence with Ukraine in order to avoid aggravation of tension in relations between Washington and Moscow, reports The Washington Post with reference to sources. The document, according to the publication, prohibits Ukraine with information that “helps to take life” of high -ranking Russian officers. This also applies to the head of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov and the Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu. The ban does not apply to data on Russian officers.

- The transaction for the purchase of a Sberbank of the Russian unit of Retail Stockmann was canceled by the mutual agreement of the parties, Gennady Levkin and representative of Sbra, the Commercial Director General of Stockmann, told Kommersant. It was planned that Sber will buy 100% of the Russian Stockmann division in the first half of 2022. The amount of the impending transaction was not disclosed. Forbes, citing experts, estimated the entire operational business network at 1-1.5 billion rubles.

-The Walt Disney incurred expenses for $ 195 million due to the depreciation of intangible assets in Russia, follows from its report. The company in March stopped the supply of its films Russia and suspended all business activities in the country, including licensing content and products, the activities of National Geographic, Disney Cruise Lin and the broadcasting of the Disney channel.

-From June 1, Sberbank will reduce the size of the bonuses in the Sberspasibo loyalty program for some categories of goods due to reducing the size of the acquiring commission at the request of the Central Bank. Changes will be valid until August 31, 2022, told RBC a representative of Sberbank. Earlier, due to the decision of the Central Bank on the regulation of the acquiring commission, the size of cashback reduced Tinkoff, Rosbank, Russian Standard, Gazprombank and Raiffeisenbank.