Sergei Sobyanin plans to produce Moskvich electric cars after the transfer of the Renault plant to the capital. True, it is still unknown how the Russian auto industry will exist at all

On May 16, Russia seemed to have the first full -fledged experience in nationalization: Russian assets of the French automobile company Renault transferred to the property of the state. The Renault Russia plant went to the Moscow government, and the share of the French in the AvtoVAZ Avtovaz Auto-Concert (nearly 70%) transferred to the subordinate Ministry of Industry and Trade of the Research Road and Automotive Motor Institute (Nam).

Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin has already stated that they plan to resume the release of Muscovites at the new plant: first classic models, and then even electric vehicles. However, all this still seems dreams. The war, sanctions and Lokdown in China led to the fact that in March the production of cars at Russian plants fell by 72.1% due to suspension of enterprises. At the same time, for Renault, the decision to transfer its assets of Russia also does not mean final leaving from the market. “New newspaper. Europe ”talked with employees of enterprises and automobile experts to understand what would happen to Renault Russia, AvtoVAZ and what future the Russian automobile industry has.

After the outbreak of a large -scale war in Ukraine, the French Auto Concert Renault announced his departure from the Russian market not immediately, but only at the end of March. Then Renault suspended the work of his Renault Russia plant (earlier Avtoframmos) in Moscow and announced that he would think about further plans. In addition to the Moscow factory, the companies owned 67.69% of the shares of the largest car carpilies in Russia (the rest of the AvtoVAZ assets belongs to the Rostec State Corporation), and 45 thousand people worked at its enterprises.

What kind of plans were talked about in Renault, it became known in a month. At the end of April, the head of the Ministry of Industry and Trade of Russia Denis Manturov said that the French are ready to transfer the control package of shares to the subordinate Ministry of Industry and Trade to the Institute at the conditional price of “one ruble” with the ability to redeem the shares back for five to six years. Investments that can potentially be carried out during this period should also be taken into account in value. As the minister added, "there will be no gifts here."

- To buy or, moreover, is not included in our plans. But if the company does not have the opportunity to ensure the supply of components today, we cannot endlessly be in anticipation. We will be forced to find an alternative, ”Manturov said . - This will concern all automakers who will pull with the decision.

As the car expert Alexei Khresin notes, it is really difficult to name the transaction by nationalization: "Nationalization is when they take the property without demand of the owner." In this case, according to Khresin, you can see an agreement between Renault and the Moscow government. Interlocutor of Novaya Gazeta. Europe ”, familiar with the course of the transaction, confirms - in fact, for both parties, the contract was the most advantageous option. The discussion of the transfer of assets has been conducted since mid -April, and the French Auto Concert himself was the initiator of these negotiations.

Bloomberg sources said that the car concern began to consider the possibility of transferring a share in AvtoVAZ to the Russian investor on March 30.

The French government, which forced them to leave the Russian market, continued the newspaper’s interlocutor for Renault, the newspaper’s interlocutor continues. Along with this, the company needed to retain the opportunity to return back as soon as such an opportunity appeared. The transaction announced today provides for this possibility, through the presence of an option for Renault for the return redevelopment of its assets over the next six years.

Finally, the Ministry of Industry and Trade confirmed the deal on May 16. According to the sources of The Wall Street Journal, the transfer of assets in the end did not occur for a ruble, but for two - along the ruble for the control package in AvtoVAZ, and for the Renault Russia plant. As the magazine "Autoreva" noted , there was no option for the Moscow plant.

"Not provided for cataclysm"

Russia for Renault Group is one of the key markets. In terms of sales, the country takes second place. According to the results of 2021, the company was able to sell 482 thousand cars in Russia. At the same time, Russians are still more popular for Russians than Renault. In numbers, these are 350 714 of the implemented Lada machines against 131,552 Renault machines.

In peacetime, at the Moscow Renault Russia plant, Models Renault Duster, Captur, Arkana and Nissan Terrano were assembled. AvtoVAZ produced mainly LADA models in Togliatti, including Lada Granta, Niva Legend, Niva Travel, Largus, Xray, as well as two Renault models - Logan and Sandero. In Izhevsk, Lada Vesta modifications made.

Most of the Renault employees are involved in the production of AvtoVAZ - according to the data for 2020, the number of personnel of the company exceeded 34 thousand people (Renault began working with AvtoVAZ in the mid -zero). After the start of imposing sanctions against Russia, some employees of the enterprise began to worry about their future.

“Of course, we all felt anxiety,” says Thatim AvtoVAZ as a “AvtoVAZ”. - In March, we learned that there would be downtime. Some employees were immediately sent there. We did not know whether our earnings would remain, whether we would have a workplace at all.

In April, everyone voluntarily-forcibly sent on an unscheduled vacation, which were transferred from the summer, and the dissatisfied was left 2/3 of the salary

( The company transferred vacation to dates from April 6 to 24 - ed ) . There is little pleasant.

According to Fatima, the management of the enterprise to its employees did not really say anything about the plans of the plant or about future changes in work - it simply provided orders. At the same time, the sanctions acted quite quickly, Fatima says that it immediately became visible: the production of products decreased (at the enterprise a woman is engaged in “acceptance” of finished products and brings it to the program). Another employee of AvtoVAZ Irina (is engaged in the distribution of components in industries), notes that the problems at the plant began long before the start of the war.

“I would not say that the sanctions are to blame.” [Management] has long been forced to disperse people to 2/3 of the salary. The problem was with components, because of their lack, the plant was forced to leave for a simple ( since mid-2021 - ed. ). So it was already with us that the plant did not work, people were sitting at home, who went out for the part -time job, who had such an opportunity. So all this is no longer very noticeable. We are already accustomed to, ”says Irina.

Both women did not go on corporate vacation, they say that it was completely inconvenient in time. Fatima is waiting for salaries: according to her, at the usual time she was paid 20 thousand rubles plus 3 thousand rubles of bonuses. Now, the woman adds, it should turn out a little more than 13 thousand (the conversation took place at the end of April. May 11, AvtoVAZ said that from June 1, will increase the salary of employees by 6% - ed.). The woman reacts indifferently to the care of Renault: he says that “before” the arrival of Renault in “AvtoVAZ”, that “after” there was no particular difference - except that the equipment became a little better, and the production culture improved. But there was no global changes, unless now it is necessary to rebuild production. But import substitution, in her opinion, is quite possible and remains the only and optimal way out, although it will take a lot of time.

- In principle, Russia as a richest country could cope on its own. There are minds, there are talents. Why didn’t we do that before? - Asks the question of Fatima. - If we had an import substitution before, the sanctions would no longer be terrible for us. I do not understand why these sanctions were generally introduced unfairly towards Russia. I think that now we should not wait for their cancellation, but to establish our production.

Irina also supports import substitution, and is more with contempt for the care of Renault. He says that they are "like rats running from a sinking ship."

- They did not provide a cataclysm. When it was good for them to milk AvtoVAZ, they stuffed their pockets, and as soon as it became difficult, they immediately left. I do not think that people, due to the fact that Renault came to AvtoVAZ, became much better. We expected more from them, but did not wait for more, ”Irina complains.

Total freezing

So far, there is no really any tangible effect of import substitution, despite the fact that the course on it was taken back in 2014 after the first wave of sanctions against Russia related to the annexation of Crimea. According to a car auto -expert Alexei Khresin, the situation on the automobile market is now extremely complicated. In the first days of the outbreak of a full -scale war in Ukraine, foreign car conders Volvo, Scania, BMW, Audi, Skoda, Honda, Mazda, Lexus, Porsche, Jaguar Land Rover, Lamborghini, Bentley, etc., announced the suspension of car.

However, this is only one part of the trouble. Khresin notes: in recent years, Russia has been very integrated into the world economy, so the war immediately affected the supply and transportation of imported components. As a result, the logistics chains were disturbed.

There were problems with them before: the shortage of components in production was felt since the beginning of the pandemic Covid-19.

-The automotive production was very tied to China, so everything sprinkled since the beginning of the Covid-19. By this year, the situation did not have time to normalize: the problems were semiconductors, the cost of container transportation increased several times. So these are all problems not the current day. Even in the fall of last year, when ordering a chassis from the European manufacturer, the delivery time could be about seven months, ”Khresin explains.

According to the automobile expert, the absence of components affects 90%on the production of foreign cars. In addition, the deficit affects almost all domestic cars - almost no model is produced without foreign electronics.

Due to violation of supplies chains, almost all automobile plants had to “freeze” production to one degree or another or build new work schedules. According to Rosstat, according to the results of the first quarter of 2022, the production of cars fell by 33.2%.

Over March, the decrease compared to last year amounted to 72.1% - in Russia only 41 thousand “cars” were released in Russia in Russia.

Production to one degree or another “froze” almost all automobile plants in Russia. Back in March, Volkswagen Group Rus plants in Kaluga and Nizhny Novgorod suspended work. In April, the Ulyanovsk Automobile Plant (UAZ) was suspended for several weeks. In the last days of the month, the Kaliningrad Plant " Avtotor ", which assembled cars Kia and Hyundai, and the Haval factory (Haval from vacation, has already come out of the month of May). Since the beginning of March, AvtoVAZ is still on vacation. According to Avtostat, in mid -April, the production of cars continued only in four factories.

Automobiles and their employees experience the “freezing” of work in different ways: someone is participating in patriotic events, and someone, apparently, is preparing for the worst scenario. In mid -April, the Auto Rifle of the Federation of Independent Trade Unions of Russia (FNRP) “ZA Mir, Za Labor, Za World without Nazism!” Started , in which AvtoVAZ employees participated . Employees of the Ural Automobile Plant participated in the Pervomaisky rally-concert. At the same time, in early May, the Avtotor automobile plant, in order to support its team in unstable times, distributed 10 acres each of the gardens for everyone. They were distributed between employees using a draw.

Electro- "Moskvich"

How much downtime will last, what and how the plants will produce after launch and in what format the automotive industry will exist in Russia at all, it is difficult to say now. How jokes the lead analyst of Avtostat agency Azat Timerkhanov about the suspension of cooperation between foreign companies with Russia, "there is nothing more permanent than temporary."

-You understand, the main factor because of which problems in production arise is geopolitics. Many companies took a break. That is, they said: "We are suspended, but we do not leave." So done, for example. "Volkswagen" and "Skoda". They have car factories, and sales are good, but they suspended production. On the other hand, there are Korean manufacturers who have not gone anywhere, but they still do not produce cars, since they do not have components, says Timerkhanov.

According to Khresin, the most realistic way out for manufacturers is the search for alternative suppliers of components-most likely from Southeast Asia. But this process will not be fast: only the search and coordination of all stages can take a large amount of time. A short -term solution to the problem may be the production of simplified car models without the use of missing components. But in this case, only Lada Niva Legend Classic will be able to be in the Russian market, Khresin points out.

Timerkhanov agrees with him, who indicates that the plants will have to produce Light versions of cars, where everything will be a minimum. Such machines will go without airbags and ABS (anti -lock system - a system that prevents the vehicle wheel lock during braking). The production of simplified models, including models of any environmental class, without ABS, airbags and the dynamic stabilization system (ESP), is now allowed officially in Russia: Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin signed the corresponding permission. The rules will be valid until February 1 of next year.

- In order to start producing Lada Vesta completely from domestic components, it will take two years. Two years in order for such enterprises to appear. I think that in this direction they will also work in Russia. If the geopolitical situation is aggravated at all, there will be no other way out. In the meantime, we must look for alternative options-import from Southeast Asia or parallel imports, ”Timerkhanov notes.

However, the nationalized Renault Russia has already begun to make big plans - at least in words. According to the Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin, at the former Renault plant, they plan to launch the production of cars under the Moskvich historical brand (in 1998, Autoframos transferred a significant part of the territories of the OJSC of the same name). They first want to revive production with the production of “classic cars” with an internal combustion engine. In the future, they plan to produce electric cars at the enterprise. The city’s partner in these technological plans will be KAMAZ. In April, the satirical edition of Panorama news agency produced almost identical news in April. As it turned out, they were in violation.

Alexei Khresin notes that it is difficult to draw from this news so far from this news: it is not clear under what conditions Renault transfers their Moscow plant to the capital. It is possible that now he will simply not be ready for the instant launch of production due to infrastructure. In addition, with a high probability, after the departure of Renault, all logistics chains will have to be reinstated, to look for suppliers. And the Muscovite is not 100%localized, although what kind of car it will be, it is also unclear. At the same time, as the expert suggests, the car will most likely find its buyer.

-If they have money, they will buy, because the prices of cars have taken off to some indecent heights. We have not yet had time to adapt to previous rise in price, and here is a new leap, ”the Khresin complains. - With a fairly closed market, the choice will be small. Domestic machines have always covered the lower segment of the market in which there will be no special competition.