War on the Black Sea. Whose missiles will fly to Sevastopol?

Mumin Shakirov and his guests summarize the results of the 20th week of 2022

The Black Sea is the new theater of war between Kyiv and Moscow? Will NATO be piercing the sea corridor for the export of grain from Ukraine to the global food market? Will it be possible to stop the offensive of Russian troops using the Patriot anti-aircraft missile system? What is the further scenario of war in Ukraine?

Mumin Shakirov discusses these and other topics and summarizes the results of the week with the former Soviet intelligence officer Yuri Shvets , editor -in -chief of the important history of the Roman Anin and Automobile Expert and sociologist Sergei Aslannyan .

Video version of the program

What is the further scenario of war in Ukraine?

Mumin Shakirov: Yuri Shvets is in touch with us. With him we will talk about the further scenarios of war in Ukraine.

Loners set fire to the military enlistment offices, this is a radical form of protest. Unfortunately, going outside in Russia today is a prison or isolator. You can give an example from world history, when the piece shares were set in motion of the mass, and is it possible in Russia?

Yuri Shvets: Suppose Gavrilo shot the principle in the summer of 1914 in Sarajevo, which led to the First World War and to the collapse of a number of empires. But I very pessimistically assess the possibility and reality in the foreseeable future of such mass protests in Russia leading to major decisions at the top of the authorities.

Mumin Shakirov: Does the leader, similar to Ayatolle Khomeini in Iran, need in this situation? Recently, more often Russia has been compared with Iran. Khomeini lived in France, steer a process from there, and then, as the winner, returned to the country - and the authorities fell to his feet.

Yuri Shvets: Of course. Without a leader, nothing is impossible at all. The leader is always needed and in everything. But in relation to Russia, again, the problem arises that there is no soil for such leadership. You called Ayatollah Khomeini. He had a foundation under his feet - religious fanaticism in a significant part of the population. Or, say, Mandela - there was racial discrimination. I do not see such an option in the Russian Federation now. Over the 20 years of the Putin regime and the work of Putin's media in the head of a significant part of people, chaos reigns, devastation, there are no real values, there is no ideology. I do not see the soil for the emergence of some mass movement, at the head of which would be an authoritative leader.

Mumin Shakirov: We tend to believe those experts who believe that the fate of Europe, Russia and Ukraine will be decided on the battlefield. So, 40 billion dollars of assistance to Ukraine to defeat the Russian army. Will Zelensky and his team be able to effectively use this resource and change the course of war?

Yuri Shvets: These are two separate questions: help, its size and potential ability to change the situation. I am categorically “yes” categorically. True, the amount is purely for military assistance - 20.1 billion, but also a lot. This assistance will be long -range, with high -precision artillery. This is the horse that Putin's Armata now saddled. Putin’s armed forces, showing the inability to win in battle, now firing at the positions of Ukrainians from afar. The Americans will drive artillery, which hits further and more precisely than the Russian one, and thus, the situation is not only equal to Ukraine, Ukraine will have a noticeable advantage. In addition, other types of weapons, such as anti -ship missiles, which should change the situation in the Black Sea, will be delivered. The second part of the issue ... Fortunately, the Generation of Zelensky, I hope, will not have a special relationship with this, because the Ukrainian military will be engaged in the use of assistance. The most important problem now is to deliver this weapon from the western borders of Ukraine to specific positions on the battlefield, where it is very necessary at the moment. So far, the Ukrainian military succeeded.

The question of hunger has become international, the world on the verge of disaster, and its culprit is Putin

Mumin Shakirov: One of the main topics today is the threat of a global food crisis. Russia blocked the coastal line of the Black Sea around Ukraine and does not make it possible to take out grain . Will NATO carry out an operation to organize the corridor to help not only Ukraine earn money, but also save hundreds of millions of people from hunger?

Yuri Shvets: Recently, this is more actively talking about this, and in the naval circles, in particular in the UK. I hope it will take place. The question of hunger has become international, the world on the verge of disaster, and its culprit is Putin. Here the question is that not just individual countries help Ukraine, but we are talking about the world community to do this. The mandate can only give the UN Security Council, where, of course, there is a veto of Russia. But you can enlist the UN resolution. Based on her, some flotilla, the shock aircraft carrier of NATO countries will enter the Black Sea to affirm the freedom of navigation, which Putin and the Black Sea Fleet violated. And this is actually an act of war, directed against almost all of humanity, condemning it to hunger. I hope that in this way it is possible to organize the exit of the NATO squadron into the northern part of the Black Sea, with the corresponding release of Ukrainian ports. And in parallel - also ensure the closure of the sky in the northern part of the Black Sea.

Mumin Shakirov: You painted a completely new picture of the theater of military operations. Will this lead to a large -scale war in the Black Sea with the help of cruise missiles and long -range weapons that will now enter Ukraine?

Yuri Shvets: For this, Ukraine does not even need weapons. Traditionally, the American Navy never took the surface fleet of the Russian Federation seriously. Already now, the American strike naval group in the Eastern Mediterranean is enough to smash the entire Black Sea Fleet and the Crimean Peninsula into chips. I am sure that the Russian Federation will not go to aggravate this situation if the question is raised as I said. This is a matter of world security. Hundreds of millions of people around the world are doomed to hunger if the release of these ports is not ensured. It would be madness that the Russian Federation somehow tried to prevent this from preventing this.

Mumin Shakirov: Putin loves to raise bets. If he rests, will it not turn out that either NATO troops or Ukraine itself will begin to send missiles towards Sevastopol?

Yuri Shvets: Putin loves to raise bets until he sees a weighty fist by his nose. Everyone said: "Putin has a face, he will not tolerate the loss of this face." The last example will give - the appeal of Finland and Sweden on admission to NATO. The war against Ukraine began with what Putin said, and with it the Russian Foreign Ministry: NATO does not suit them, NATO should be removed until the borders of the 97th year. Khamski, by almost an ultimatum: "Here you are for three days, sign the papers that we wrote." Now, instead of getting out, NATO is not just at the door, it has already put a leg on the territory of the Russian Federation. You can finish to St. Petersburg. If Sweden and Finland are included in NATO, then the entire Northern Fleet of the Russian Federation under the NATO cap, it will actually be neutralized. Putin sluggishly says: "For us, this does not pose any danger." That is, NATO without Sweden and Finland was a danger in October last year, and the alliance with these countries does not represent it.

Mumin Shakirov: That is, Putin swallowed this bitter pill ... There is another important topic, probably, today one of the most important is the events around the Azovstal. According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, almost two thousand people surrendered. How to react to this?

Yuri Shvets: I would divide these two thousand people by two or three, given that the information comes from the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation. Those people who were there are heroes. This is not even a Brest fortress. From the Brest Fortress, her chiefs carried their legs in the very first days of the war. She was protected by majorors, captains, starls and ordinary. And these are real heroes who, in inhuman conditions, in a colossal minority kept the battle ... Everything comes to an end. As far as I understand, the Supreme Command of Ukraine gave a team so that they surrendered. But not just, but we are talking about the exchange of prisoners of war. Then we will see what the Russian Federation will do. In similar situations in the past, when the enemy was such resistance when this enemy gave up, the winning side gave him honors. According to legend, when Peter I won the battle of Poltava, he hugged and kissed the Swedish generals and told them. If representatives of the military circles of the Russian Federation have military honor, dignity, they should be honored to these hero fighters and let them go or exchange them for Russian prisoners. But I am afraid that the vile essence of the Putin regime will not allow this. Instead, there will be dances with a tambourine that they must be judged as terrorists.

Mumin Shakirov: We must give Putin the opportunity to keep his face. This is evidenced by both European politicians and some American politicians. Will this line of behavior of Western actors win to stop the war at the conditions unfavorable for Ukraine?

Yuri Shvets: She should not defeat, because, from the point of view of military experts in the United States and in NATO, there is no need for this. Putin has a colossal propaganda apparatus in his hands, which will turn for the Russian people any of his most terrible defeat into a tremendous victory. Therefore, Putin's face is the last thing to take care of the West. Let him take care of his so -called face himself, along with his propagandists.

How did Putin make a decision to start a war in Ukraine?

Mumin Shakirov: The war in Ukraine has been going on for almost three months with huge losses on both sides, including victims among the civilian population. But no matter how the events develop further, it is now obvious: the original plan of the invasion of the Russian army to Ukraine has failed. It was not possible to capture large cities, they have already forgotten about denazification and demilitarization. But everything goes according to plan, they say in the Kremlin. The President of Russia personally moves the troops on the map. This was written by our guest in the publication "Important Stories" - Roman Anin .

Roman, how did Putin make a decision to start a war in Ukraine and whom did he attract as co -authors of this idea?

Vladimir Putin has recently ceased to perceive information that does not correspond to his views on the world

Roman Anin: When the war began, we talked with about ten people. And everyone answered exactly the same thing about why this catastrophic decision was made, why it was not given a proper assessment of what could happen in Ukraine. According to sources, Vladimir Putin has been self -isolated in recent years, this isolation is both physical and informational. Due to the fact that Putin limited his circle of communication with three to five most trusted people, it became difficult to convey alternative information to him. He began to rely only on the opinion of the special services. Then the key was the question of what these special services write in their certificates. We spoke with many people who are familiar with the work of the so -called "large" fifth service of the FSB. This is intelligence within the FSB, which, in fact, is engaged in the collection of intelligence information in the former countries of the USSR. They say that there is a very low level of training of people, and not so much because it happened historically, but because Vladimir Putin has recently ceased to perceive information that does not correspond to his views on the world. Roughly speaking, not a single FSB officer can write in his certificate that there are no Nazis in Ukraine, no one in the Kharkov region will meet the Russian army. You need to write what the boss wants to see.

Mumin Shakirov: Why did Putin take over the leadership of a military operation in Ukraine, almost drives his hands on the map and gives orders to the commanders of units and units? As we see, no Suvorov from him is fighting in number, not skill.

Roman Anin: This is not the first time. What we see in 2022 is a certain consequence of the relatively easy successes that they had from 2008 to 2020. In 2008, in Georgia, they coped without any problems within five days. In the 14th year in Crimea, they coped at all without a single shot. In Syria, it is also relatively easy. Vladimir Putin has repeatedly emphasized that in many ways the success of these operations was ensured by the fact that he personally pressed the buttons. For example, he spoke about Crimea. He clearly boasted that everything was possible because he personally led a special operation. Here he does the same. This is evidenced by American intelligence and other observers. This leads to colossal losses of the Russian army. What is only the so-called operation in Belogorovka, where the whole battalion, the tactical group was lost due to the dullness of the command.

Mumin Shakirov: The failure of the operation in Kiev and near Kharkov - is his personal collapse with the loss of lives of thousands of soldiers and officers, a large number of military equipment?

Roman Anin: Of course, so. Even if he personally had not moved the tanks on the map, he, as the commander in chief, is responsible for everything that happens at the front.

Mumin Shakirov: What do your sources say about his fears? How much did he limit the circle of communication and does this not serve as an obstacle to getting real information about what is happening in the country and on the front line?

Roman Anin: Of course, so. This is information isolation, in addition to physical. He has a huge number of fears. First of all, these are all sorts of fears associated with attempt, with poisoning, which is why it constantly changes the circle of persons who serve it. For the past 10 years, people from his personal guards have been put forward to key posts: Dyumin, Mironov, numerous governors. Closer than Mironov now, probably, there is no man to him, he calls him almost his son, and this is his adjutant and personal guard. The personnel policy in Russia is built on fears and paranoia.

Mumin Shakirov: Who decided to leave Kiev and Kharkov and concentrate in the Donbass and southern Ukraine, up to Nikolaev and Zaporozhye, where the Russian army has real successes?

Roman Anin: I don’t know who specifically made this decision, but I think that the president was still the final link. They saw what disaster it all went to. If they lingered in the Kyiv or in the Chernihiv region, where they suffered colossal losses, they could lose the entire group. They had no choice but to withdraw troops and focus on smaller tasks.

Close to Putin understand: they led the country and themselves to a disaster, and they almost had no chance to get out of this situation without a Hague or without death

Mumin Shakirov: What connects people from Putin’s close circle: fear of disgrace, a common idea or only money and well-being, which is in many ways to swing over the war in Ukraine?

Roman Anin: Initially, this environment was his colleagues in the KGB, his colleagues in the city hall, his St. Petersburg friends. And all these circles had different motivations: somewhere there was corruption, somewhere there were common values (if we are talking about the KGB), somewhere there was something else. And now this circle has changed a lot. Those who stayed in this circle do not think about money at all, rather, already about self -stay. Close to Putin understand: they led the country and themselves to the disaster, and they almost had no chance of getting out of this situation without Hague or without death. This fear and this understanding is the main factor that holds them together.

Mumin Shakirov: You talked about the fact that Putin and his closest environment - today these are soldiers of the Cold War who want to take revenge. What we see now knocked out the soil from under the feet? Or are they obsessed, like religious fanatics, and still want to avenge the West?

Roman Anin: They interpret everything that is happening as a confirmation of their view of the world. They see that they lose in Ukraine, and do not conclude that they miscalculated. They draw such conclusions: "The West is so insidious. Excessive confirmation that we are fighting not with Ukraine, but with NATO." And all military defeats only once again assert them in these views of the world.

Mumin Shakirov: This week you released another investigation called "Munich daughter of Vladimir Putin." It turns out that his daughter Katerina Tikhonova has a new chosen one - ballet artist Igor Zelensky, and in recent years she lived with him for two countries - Russia and Germany. What do this knowledge give us from the personal life of the President of Russia? Does Putin become more vulnerable?

Roman Anin: I do not think that he becomes more vulnerable. I think this is important knowledge for all of us. After the war began, the propagandists and the president himself said that "all the people in Russia, oriented to the West, are national traitors." The investigation shows how hypocrite these statements are, given that his daughter and unofficial son -in -law all this time lived in Germany.

Mumin Shakirov: How valuable is his large family, taking into account the ex -wife, mistresses or roommates, children and grandchildren for Putin, judging by various investigations? Is he ready to launch this world, having a dozen close relatives, each of which, probably, has plans and hopes in this life?

Roman Anin: So he has already done it. And this suggests that this person has completely flew the brakes. Unfortunately, rationality in decisions has gone. He was never a great guardian of human rights, laws and all other, in his opinion, meaningless achievements of democracy. However, he had restraining factors. Unfortunately, in 2014 and by the 22nd year they completely disappeared-maybe because of the foreboding of their close end, due to illness, because of something else. He is not considered the lives of 140 million Russians, not to mention tens of thousands of those killed in Ukraine.

Renault plant leaves Russia

Mumin Shakirov: About how the fate of the project “Return of the Moskvich”, which is lobbying personally, the mayor of Moscow Sergey Sobyanin, I talked with Sergey Aslannyan can actually develop.

Sergey, have you ever got behind the wheel of a Moskvich?

Sergey Aslannyan: I have a tragic experience in possessing several Muscovites. I traveled both the 412th and 2141, even at the 407th I traveled. These are very specific impressions.

Mumin Shakirov: What impressions did the car leave?

Sergey Aslannyan: The main feature of the Muscovite is always faulty, but he will always bring you. The Muscovite, in which nothing falls off, does not flow from nowhere and everything is properly, does not happen, regardless of which model year, what a run of this machine. I had, for example, the new 41st, from the conveyor, the whole yard envied me. This car had to be assembled after the plant a new one in a row. I had a used 41st Moskvich, who once a week sent me to the service, because he had such technologies that did not always allow him to fix him on his knee in the garage. The 412th “Moskvich” is a machine that usually approached the 100 or three “capital” engine to a 100,000 mileage. At the 41st Moskvich, to the grave board, the box was made using a bypass technology. The 412th, despite the purchase of other people's technologies, had constantly malaise, his famous motor stolen by BMW was not that standard. All these cars suffered either with a complex of illness, or with their individual ailments, but it has always been an exhausting locksmith battle for the ability to go somewhere every day.

Mumin Shakirov: The Moscow City Hall promises in the 22nd year the launch of cars under the Moskvich brand at the former Renault Russia plant. What is the production of Renault on the territory of the former AZLK?

Sergey Aslanyan: Renault plant is the final point of logistics chains, where components for the final assembly were brought from the entire globe. This is not a full cycle plant. There is no stamping. There is only a backball and the final assembly. Alien stamped details are brought there, they are welded, painted and assembled in a single car. This is a plant of the only platform. This is not a flexible technology that we read about BMW and Mercedes. This is a plant that can make only one type of car on platform B0. The B0 platform is officially bought by us, so it is ours. But if someone decides to produce another car there, no matter what, for this it will be necessary to take out all the workshops from the workshops to the last nail and the bolt and bring new technological lines, equipment, conveyors. And around build a dozen more similar workshops and small factors for the production of everything else. Otherwise, it will not work.

We bought our entire automobile industry

Mumin Shakirov: You said that there would be no “Muscovite” neither today, nor tomorrow, nor the day after tomorrow. Why?

Sergey Aslanyan: First of all, there is no ready -made development. So, to take daddy from the shelf - and there, please, a model is already ready for production. In our country, the design school has been engaged in the traditional study of Western samples and profanity for itself in recent decades. And when, for example, our country needed a “number one” car for the president, we decided to make a motorcade project, which resulted in the Aurus limousine. We, as the most qualified engineering school, like our scientific and technical center of progress, lost this task and took the Volkswagen Phaeton platform. Therefore, our president travels not so much on a completely original development “made in Russia” as on the scraps of that German that Germany was not useful. Despite the fact that Aurus is a machine that, to put it mildly, is not 100% ours. Many technological solutions and components, in principle, are too tough for us, such as a pneumatic suspension, bought from the Chinese, the turn -keys ordered by him, executed. And if suddenly, for some reason, the pneumoballon is blown away by the presidential limousine, then we will have to send a feldeger mail to China so that some kind of sparetous instrument, material or this pneumoballon itself come from there. Sobyanin says: "We will make a car." Who will make this car? There is nowhere to order it, there is no one to create it. This is a job, the cost of which starts from one billion dollars and takes from five years if you know what to do and know how to. We do not have such people. We have an example of this-AVVA, the Berezovsky project, when we decided to go a little beyond the stereotype and at the factory with established production to create a new model of the type and size that is not characteristic of this plant. We created the fact that we got under the name Lada Kalina, 15 years old, and then it came out with a wretched one, the day before yesterday, did not work out. When Sobyanin says “we will make a“ Moskvich ”, he will not do a“ Moskvich ”, he will not even be able to indicate his request with a loud voice:“ Good people, someone come and do it! ”No one.

Mumin Shakirov: Opponents will tell you that you are a real Russophobe: "Russia is rich in talents! Do we really have no kulibins who can come up with a car and start the assembly line with state money?"

Sergey Aslanyan: The only thing that opponents can be is to say that I am Russophobe. They have no other arguments. We bought our entire turnkey automotive industry - Ford factory, which is the Gorky Automobile Plant, AvtoVAZ, which fiat. We do not have our own industries, competencies. All that the domestic auto industry did is borrowing, theft. And there was such a scientific phenomenon of an engineering school, which was taught at institutes to students, which was called "bypass the patent."

Mumin Shakirov: What was foreign in Moskvich?

Sergey Aslanyan: for example, the 41st Moskvich has a Simca-Chrysler body, which has an Audi 100 suspension, Saab stove, RECARO seats and our Ufa engine, BMW. So we have enough talents to steal and adapt, in order to make a new engine, a new suspension, a new car, a stove, seats, a steering wheel, has not been noted over the past 100 years. We have an unusual model - this is Niva. We created a car, the analogues of which at that moment really were not. She became the ancestor of crossovers on planet Earth. How many generations did Toyota change crossovers? Five. How many generations of crossovers have changed among other competitors? How many generations of crossovers have replaced Niva? Once we made a car that demanded development, finishing and had the right to the second, third, fourth, fifth generation, but we do the same “Niva” at this time. Moreover, it so happened that for 45 years of its production for some reason, localization is not equal to 100%. Niva has a cylinder -piston group of the American company Federal Mogul. We forgot how to make pistons and piston rings. What, in Russia there are no talents and Kulibins who can come up with some piston rings and pistons on a cloth-pursuit of the Niva without a single nail? But no.

Mumin Shakirov: Why then Moscow mayor Sergei Sobyanin promised Putin and car owners to re -equip the Renault plant in Moscow and establish the production of "Muscovites"? What goal did he pursue, giving these impossible promises?

Sergey Aslanyan: He is trying to be a politician, and a politician is a person who never does anything, but always must promise something. If Sobyanin at least understand something in such a industry as a car, then he would be worried about to speak with similar statements. The Moscow government both under Sobyanin and Sobyanin, in principle, did not shine very much with professionalism, and the ZIL plant was buried, the Moskvich plant was buried, and they were in management of the capital. In Moscow, the Sickle and Hammer plant died, all production. Now, when the mayor claims that he took the Renault factory for balance, retain workplaces (and imported workers work there), and a non -existent car will be produced there, it is excusable for a politician. А на самом деле выпускаться там не будет больше ничего, эта земля уйдет под жилую застройку. Но для отвода глаз нужно говорить слова.

Мумин Шакиров: Полную версию беседы с Сергеем Асланяном мы опубликуем на сайте Радио Свобода в начале следующей недели.