The price of a “special operation” in Ukraine. Online

The Bell continues to conduct online, dedicated to the economic consequences of the "special military operation" in Ukraine, which began on February 24

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17:59 The approaching recession in the United States is not so inevitable against the background of the Fed's decisive measures against inflation, said Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen. “As the economy and the labor market recovered, everything grew at a rapid pace, and we reached full employment,” explains Yellen. “Now it’s only natural that we expect a transition to sustainable and stable growth, but I don’t think a recession is inevitable at all.” The Minister of Finance also noted that the inflation rate in the country is unacceptably high. Reducing it is one of Joe Biden's priorities.

14:48 Germany will allocate another €15 billion ($15.8 billion) for gas purchases, according to the DPA agency, citing the project of the Ministry of Economy ( reports Reuters ). The loan will be provided to the single German gas hub Trading Hub Europe (THE), the main strategic goal is to ensure an acceptable amount of gas in storage facilities in order to survive the winter in the event of a complete cessation of imports from Russia. It is not specified where the additional volumes of gas may come from.

13:05 Russians encountered problems downloading Windows 10 and 11 operating systems, as well as some other Microsoft products from the official website. The download takes place only after the VPN is connected. The company has not officially announced any restrictions, but in March it suspended sales of new products in Russia.

11:53 Moldovan President Maia Sandu signed a law banning the broadcast of news and analytical programs, as well as war films from Russia and other countries that have not ratified the European Broadcasting Convention. It is allowed to broadcast films and entertainment programs without militaristic content.

The main thing in the morning:

• The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Kazakhstan called for the development of a phased plan to eliminate nuclear weapons in the world by 2045. The current military conflict on the territory of Ukraine, talks about the return of nuclear weapons and mutual threats of their use are making us think about its ban, wrote Kazakh Foreign Minister Mukhtar Tleuberdi . According to him, Kazakhstan is aware of all the political and technical obstacles on this path, but considers it necessary to "start practical work in this direction."
• Italy will be able to survive the winter without Russian gas, says Claudio Descalzi, head of Eni's oil and gas group. To do this, by October there should be at least 70-80% of reserves, which will be facilitated, among other things, by doubled supplies from Algeria. Now the storage facilities are 54% full, there is a shortage of about 30 million cubic meters of Russian gas per day, but so far the supply in the country exceeds demand (200 million cubic meters against 160 million cubic meters), Descalzi said.
• Spanish retailer Mango will abandon direct sales in Russia and sell 55 stores to local franchisees, El Pais reports , citing sources in the group. The first two outlets will be transferred to partners next week, they will have to deliver products on their own. Last year, the Russian market accounted for 8% of Mango's EBIT and was one of the top five.

Continued online June 19

17:03 India has been increasing purchases of Russian coal in recent weeks at a discount of 25% to 30%, Reuters reports citing trade sources. The agency also examined unpublished data from the Indian government, which showed that from May 27 to June 15, coal imports from Russia increased six-fold, by $331.17 million, compared to the same period last year. On average, India bought $16.55 million a day of Russian coal during this period, more than double its daily purchases in the three months since Feb. 24. The volume of oil purchases increased by more than 31 times, to $2.22 billion.

16:22 Igor Sechin at the SPIEF said that over the past year, BP will receive from Rosneft in the form of dividends "a serious figure with nine zeros in foreign currency." Money can be frozen in a special account. But if the West tries to expropriate Russian assets abroad, foreign companies in Russia could face the same fate, he warned .

13:58 Adviser to the President of Russia Anton Kobyakov summed up the preliminary results of SPIEF-22. By June 18, 691 agreements worth 5.6 trillion rubles were concluded. The forum was attended by 14,000 people from 131 countries.

Over 800 agreements worth 3.86 trillion rubles were signed at SPIEF 2021, of which 165 were with the participation of foreign partners. The event was attended by 13,000 participants from 140 countries, with 800 leading organizations represented at the level of their leaders.

12:41 Coca-Cola products can be imported to Russia using the parallel import mechanism, admitted Boris Titov . But, the business ombudsman noted, importing technological equipment to Russia in this way is another story: “It will be impossible to supply spare parts for aircraft, but it will be possible for cars.”

Now in Russia, warehouse stocks accumulated until March 2022 are being sold out, but these stocks are running out, and after they are exhausted, there will be no new deliveries or production in Russia, American Coca-Cola said. We talked about a strange contender for its import substitution here .

The main thing in the morning:

• The government needs another two or three months to prepare a strategy for the new economy for the next three years, told head of the Accounts Chamber Alexei Kudrin RBC at SPIEF. He called the anti-crisis measures already taken “quite adequate” despite the fact that “there are not as many resources as we would like”, and “business has a lot of requests”. These problems should be solved not only by the state, but also by the companies themselves, Kudrin stressed. Among the efforts that are required from enterprises, he named the buyout of foreign companies that left the Russian market by private entrepreneurs, not state-owned companies. As an example, he cited the purchase of McDonald's restaurants by Kuzbass businessman Alexander Govor.
• The cutback in gas supplies from Russia has forced European utilities to start tapping into storage that is normally reserved for the winter, writes Bloomberg . On Tuesday, they were 52% full, but according to the latest data from Gas Infrastructure Europe, fuel volumes there decreased by 1 percentage point. Nevertheless, the level of gas reserves remains equal to the average value for five years, the agency notes.
• Svyaznoy will close its Cstore chain of stores that sold Apple equipment, told Svyaznoy President Alexei Vukolov Kommersant. They will be consolidated with the main company. Further development of mono-brand store formats, which was Cstore, became impossible after Apple stopped deliveries to the Russian market, Vukolov explained. The closure of Cstore will not be a significant loss for Svyaznoy, according to analysts interviewed by the newspaper. Cstore's competitors with Apple Premium Reseller status in Russia - re:Store and iPort - have not yet decided to leave the market, but have already begun optimization.
• Myanmar is considering joining the Russian equivalent of SWIFT, the financial messaging system (SPFS). The central banks of the two countries are already negotiating, Myanmar Minister for Investments and Foreign Economic Relations Aung Naing U told RIA Novosti at SPIEF. The development of SPFS has become especially relevant after large Russian banks were disconnected from SWIFT under sanctions. But the system cannot yet cover the entire volume of international transactions. In the spring, the Central Bank hid the list of participants in the SPFS.

Continued online June 18

22:12 Oil on Friday evening fell in price to a four-week low. A barrel of Brent for July delivery costs $112.9 (-5.8%), a barrel of WTI - $110.1 (-6.4%). At the moment, Brent fell in price by almost 7%. The fall in oil prices is associated with fears that raising rates by central banks could slow the economy and reduce demand for energy, writes Reuters.

• this week, the Fed raised its base rate by 0.75 percentage points, the largest increase since 1994;
• the National Bank of Switzerland unexpectedly raised the rate by 0.5 percentage points for the first time since 2007;
• followed by the Bank of England also raised the rate - by 0.25 p.p.

More and more entrepreneurs and analysts are talking about the risks of a recession. 60% of company executives surveyed by the Conference Board are waiting for it. At the end of 2021, only 22% expected a recession. The behavior of the S&P 500 index indicates an 85% chance of a recession in the US, taking into account the likely miscalculations of the Fed, writes JPMorgan. Fears of stagflation among investors are at their highest since 2008, a BofA survey showed.

20:23 Vladimir Putin, in his keynote speech at the SPIEF, announced victory over the "crazy sanctions" that failed to "crush" the Russian economy. And he gave several arguments - the Russian budget, despite the pressure, is in surplus, price growth has been stopped, and the ruble has strengthened. But each of these arguments can be argued, writes The Bell economic correspondent Yulia Starostina.

19:29 The SPIEF plenary meeting with the participation of Putin and Tokayev has ended. It lasted almost four hours instead of the planned two. The presidents ended with a discussion about the future of the West and the world as a whole. Putin said he was an optimist and had great respect for the American people. “US political elites will have to respond to the demand of the people,” he said.

Tokayev noted that the world has entered a crisis phase. At the same time, according to him, in the West "there is a solid margin of safety, the Americans are on the sidelines and feel the consequences of this situation to a lesser extent, the US economy is dynamic and modern." “There are great opportunities in our part of the world… In general, we must remain optimistic,” Tokayev concluded.

18:44 Kazakhstan does not recognize the DPR and LPR, Tokayev said: “If the right of nations to self-determination is realized, then instead of 193 states, more than 500-600 countries will appear on Earth. It will be chaos. For this reason, we do not recognize either Taiwan, or Kosovo, or South Ossetia, or Abkhazia. The same principle will be applied to the quasi-state territories, which, in our opinion, are Donetsk and Lugansk.”

18:17 Putin: “You need to invest at home, in your native country! And our task is to ensure the safety of these investments. That's what we'll do."

On the eve of Nabiullina at the SPIEF session, she called the return of investor confidence a challenge for the authorities. “We had a massive influx of retail investors. Now they are in a period of disappointment, because the value of many securities has fallen, some assets have been frozen,” said the chairman of the Central Bank.

We talked about the troubles that Russian investors faced only in the last couple of weeks and what risks they still face, we talked about here .

17:52 In Kiev, at this time, Volodymyr Zelensky is meeting with Boris Johnson. This is the second visit of the British Prime Minister to Ukraine since the beginning of the “special operation”.

17:45 Putin and Tokayev started answering questions. The moderator of the session, Margarita Simonyan, asked Putin the first question. She asked about product replacements from departing companies, including packaging and high-speed trains.

“We need to isolate the main thing. What is important for us? To be independent, self-sufficient, sovereign and ensure the development of the future or have a package today? Putin replied. “If there is no sovereignty – we will all buy and produce oil, gas, saddles and sell round timber – this is inevitable, only sovereign countries can count on a sovereign future.” According to him, the departed will be replaced either by partners from other countries, or "we can do it ourselves."

16:58 After the last half hour of his speech devoted to the internal development of Russia, Putin summed up: “The content of the new world order will be set by strong, sovereign states that do not move along the trajectory already outlined by someone - or are doomed to remain a colony without rights <.. .> We (Russia) will become even stronger.”

16:35 Putin to entrepreneurs: “At home is more reliable. Those who have not heard this message have lost hundreds of millions of dollars... Do not step on the old rake, invest here, invest in enterprises, industries... physical education and sports.”

16:30 Russia will rely on private entrepreneurial initiative, reduce the administrative burden. There are reasons to completely stop inspections of businesses that are not associated with specific security risks, to clarify the measures of responsibility and the grounds for confining entrepreneurs into custody.

16:22 Russia will not follow the path of self-isolation and autarky, no matter how the West wants it. Russia will promote cooperation with countries that care primarily about their own national interests.

16:16 The decision to launch a special operation was difficult, but forced. Residents of the DPR and LPR were subjected to genocide for eight years with the connivance of the West. Today, our soldiers and officers are defending Russia's right to free and secure development. All the tasks of the special operation will certainly be solved (applause) with the support of a consolidated society.

16:11 Hunger in the poorest countries will be on the conscience of the US administration and the European bureaucracy. Russia is ready to significantly increase the export of grain (up to 50 million tons) and fertilizers. But there are difficulties here, "arising through no fault of ours."

16:09 Foreign exchange reserves can be stolen, raw materials and food will become real reserves. Why exchange goods for dollars and euros?

16:05 Russia's actions in Donbas are not the cause of the current economic situation in the world, "Putin's inflation" does not exist. The West is to blame (and especially the USA), which, having printed money, "raked out all the goods from the markets of third countries."

16:00 About Europe: The European Union has finally lost its sovereignty, its elites are dancing to someone else's tune, harming their own people and businesses.

15:58 Estimated losses of the EU due to sanctions for the year may exceed $400 billion. Some EU members have inflation under 20%.

15:55 Putin: I consider it possible to reduce the mortgage rate to 7%. But the term will remain the same - until the end of the year, the maximum mortgage amounts (12 million rubles for the capitals, 6 million for the regions) remain.

15:46 Putin: patterns are being imposed on the world from one center, the game is going in one direction. Such a world is unstable.

• The eternal dominance of the West is a delusion. But the countries of the golden billion do not want to admit this, they consider everyone else second-rate - hence the desire to punish those who stand out from this row.
• If it is not possible to pacify someone, they try to cancel them. This is the nature of "insane and thoughtless sanctions" against Russia.
• It was not possible to bring down the Russian economy, we are gradually normalizing the situation.
• Spells about the dollar for 200 rubles are an instrument of ideological influence that influenced "some" domestic experts.
• We are strong people, we will cope with any trials. Inflation is stabilizing, state finances are stable, the federal budget has been executed with a surplus of 1.5 trillion rubles.

15:43 Vladimir Putin speaks at SPIEF: host Margarita Simonyan thanks the experts who coped with the DDoS attack on the forum. Putin began by welcoming the participants at this “difficult time for the world economy” and that “geopolitical illusions” that persist are to blame for what is happening.

15:19 The Central Bank sees the risks of imposing sanctions on the National Clearing Center (NCC), as happened with the National Settlement Depository, said First Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank Vladimir Chistyukhin. “We believe that the most appropriate solution to cope with these risks is to reduce the currency position of NCC participants,” quotes Chistyukhin. Frank Media

We talked about the troubles that befell Russian investors due to the blocking of NSD, what risks they still face and what can be done here .

14:20 Ukraine introduces a visa regime for Russians from July 1 "as part of countering unprecedented threats to national security." In fact, a strict regime for the entry of Russians into Ukraine with a preliminary application and registration at the place of stay has been in effect for several years, since February 28 this year, entry into the country has been closed to Russian citizens.

14:02 More than 60% of company executives expect a recession in their country or region in the next 12-18 months, 15% believe that it has already begun, a showed survey of 750 Conference Board executives . At the end of 2021, only 22% expected a recession.

13:56 Vladimir Putin's speech at the plenary session of the SPIEF has been postponed for an hour - from 14:00 to 15:00 Moscow time - due to DDoS attacks on the forum's accreditation system. This was announced by his press secretary Dmitry Peskov.

13:42 The UK has decided to extradite Julian Assange to the US. He has 14 days to file an appeal. In the United States, on the totality of the charges against him, he faces 175 years in prison. The history of the creator of Wikileaks can be recalled here .

13:06 The European Commission has officially recommended granting Ukraine the status of a candidate for EU membership. “Ukraine has clearly shown the desire and firm intention to follow European values ​​and standards,” said European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.

• According to her, Ukraine has implemented approximately 70% of European standards. But important work remained in the areas of the rule of law, anti-corruption and fundamental human rights.
• Also, a recommendation for candidates for EU accession was given to Moldova, before which there is a “longer way”.
• Georgia is given a "European perspective", but not a candidacy, for which it must fulfill a number of additional conditions. “Georgia must consolidate politically in order to embark on the path of structural reforms and then accession to the EU,” said Ursula von der Leyen.

Now for Ukraine and Moldova it is up to the approval of the EU member states, which is not guaranteed.

12:34 The National Settlement Depository has blocked foreign securities of residents for 6 trillion rubles in equivalent, said First Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank Vladimir Chistyukhin. “That figure, which today is clear, as a kind of starting point. If we are talking about those foreign securities owned by residents, then NSD has about 6 trillion rubles of them, which are currently blocked,” he said on the sidelines of SPIEF.

NSD is the largest securities depository in Russia, it records and settles rights to securities, but was included in the sixth EU sanctions package, published on June 3. Euroclear is the parent depository where NSD holds all foreign assets.

11:22 If gas supplies through the Nord Stream 1 pipe stop completely, the EU will not meet the UGS stock standard by November and will be left without reserves at the height of the heating season - in January 2023, Bloomberg writes, citing Wood Mackenzie's calculations. If the gas pipeline continues to operate at 40%, as it is now, the EU reserves will be enough back to back.

Today it became known that Germany is negotiating with Canada on the return of gas pumping units from repair to the compressor station that provides the gas pipeline. Gazprom argued that only Canadian sanctions were to blame for the decline in gas supplies to Europe.

11:17 Sberbank will definitely not introduce negative rates on the foreign currency accounts of individuals until the end of the year, but in 2023 it may think about it, said State Bank President German Gref.

10:33 who spoke Aleksey Mordashov, the owner of Severstal, today at SPIEF , re-registered his Nord superyacht in Russia. Now it is located off the coast of Sakhalin.

The main thing by the morning of June 17:

• Future models of AvtoVAZ will be based on the converted Lada Vesta platform, which will appear in three to four years. Taking into account the replacement of key components, this will cost the plant very expensive, it is realistic to produce a simplified model in the near future.
• The European Commission may already today approve the EU candidacy of Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova. The probability that in a week the first stage of accession to the EU at least for Ukraine will be approved by the members of the union has grown.
• The main issue of Sberbank's business breakfast at SPIEF was the choice between a "bridge" and a "pipe" to the East.
• The sanctioned bank VTB, which was blocked by the application, will launch a fully functional banking bot in Telegram. An analogue works for Alfa-Bank, and it seems that this channel will become more and more popular.
• The Russian subsidiary of Google has filed for bankruptcy. The company, after the arrest of bank accounts for not removing prohibited content (including on YouTube), suspended most of its commercial operations in Russia.
• Global equity markets continue to fall after the Fed rate hike. The Nasdaq fell back to September 2020 levels.

Continued online June 17

21:15 Italian Enel is selling its 56.43% stake in Enel Russia to Lukoil and the Gazprombank-Freesia fund, writes Vedomosti . The company entered into two separate agreements with buyers in the amount of 135 million euros.

Enel announced its withdrawal from Russia and the search for buyers back in March. It owns three gas power plants: Konakovskaya, Nevinnomysskaya and Sredneuralskaya (total 5.6 GW capacity), as well as a wind farm put into operation in the Rostov Region (300 MW) and those under construction in the Murmansk Region and the Stavropol Territory.

20:08 Elon Musk held the first online meeting with Twitter employees after the offer to buy.

• Musk has not explicitly confirmed that he is committed to buying Twitter, but the company's quotes have changed little.
• The Twitter platform should become "too expensive for bot armies".
• Twitter users must pay for verification.
• The goal is 1 billion users (now - 330 million active users per month).
• The platform will earn both on subscriptions and on advertising.
• Musk does not want to be a CEO, the main thing is the quality of the product.
• Musk has no proof of the existence of aliens.

20:06 Coca-Cola will completely leave the Russian market. Stocks of Coca-Cola beverages are running out, and once stocks are depleted, the company will not produce or sell beverages in Russia, said in a statement. Coca-Cola HBG, the American company's exclusive distributor in Russia,

19:26 Tinkoff Bank announced that from June 16 it will introduce a minimum amount of SWIFT transfers - $20,000 - due to "an increase in the number of checks by Western partners and a decrease in the volume of payments processed by them from clients of Russian banks." As well as commissions for incoming SWIFT transfers: 3% of the transfer amount, but not less than 200 USD. e. and not more than the amount of the transfer.

18:14 Statements by the leaders of Germany, France, Italy, Romania and Ukraine following the meeting in Kiev:

• All four EU countries support immediate EU candidate status for Ukraine;
• The same, according to German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, applies to Moldova;
• Ukraine has the right to defend itself and choose the terms of the peace agreement that suits it;
• It is necessary to unblock the supply of millions of tons of grain through the Black Sea.

17:37 The Dutch intelligence service (AIVD) stopped an attempt by an illegal Russian GRU officer, Sergei Cherkasov (born in 1985), to work at the International Criminal Court in The Hague under the guise of an intern from Brazil, Victor Muller Ferreira (born in 1989). Access to court records would give Russia a way to influence its decisions in the context of war crimes investigations in Ukraine.

AIVD also published a legend allegedly learned by Cherkasov, including detailed information about members of his Brazilian "family" and even about working in an auto repair shop, "where a poster hung on the warehouse door, first with a young Veronica Castro, and then with Pamela Anderson."

17:27 The rally after the Fed's decision to raise rates by 0.75 percentage points (but not to abuse such a step) turned out to be short-lived: on Thursday, the S & P 500 index fell by 3%. The behavior of the index, which recently entered bearish territory, indicates an 85% chance of a recession in the US, taking into account the likely miscalculations of the Fed, writes JPMorgan.

16:33 The government commission, headed by Finance Minister Anton Siluanov, has allowed investors to transfer currency from the sale of foreign securities to their foreign accounts, Central Bank Chairman Elvira Nabiullina said at a session of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum.

“By the way, just the other day the government commission made a decision about which the market was asking - but payments on foreign shares could be credited to foreign accounts, but from the sale of shares it was impossible. As I understand it, this decision has been made, this is also another step towards easing (currency restrictions - approx. The Bell),” Nabiullina said.

16:23 Minister of Economic Development Maxim Reshetnikov called deflation in June quite real. In the week to June 10, prices fell by 0.12%, a week earlier - by 0.01%.

16:19 Alexander Novak: the discount on the sale of Russian oil will decrease with the development of new sales channels. Europe will have to overpay for oil about $400 billion this year.

14:52 Anton Siluanov on the sidelines of the SPIEF revealed three principles of the new budget rule:

• The cut-off price will be replaced by “a certain dependence of budget revenues not only on the price, but also on various options for the volume of production and export of hydrocarbons”;
• The ceiling on budget commitments will include loans "so that there is no temptation to increase quasi-fiscal operations, which are in fact pure spending";
• The budget will continue to save reserves from high oil prices. “Saving in rubles is also an option. We can consider an alternative in yuan,” the minister said.

The budget rule has been in place since 2017 and was suspended in 2020 due to the costs of coping with the pandemic. All excess profits from the export of energy resources at a price above the cut-off price ($44.2 per barrel of Brent was planned for 2022) were transferred to the National Welfare Fund.

14:15 The Bank of England raised the rate by 0.25 percentage points to 1.25%. This is the fifth consecutive increase, but in terms of its pace, the regulator began to lag behind comparable countries, notes Bloomberg . The bank is forced to act with extreme caution: it is already forecasting inflation peaking at 11% this year, with the economy shrinking by 0.3% in the second quarter.

13:53 Great Britain imposed sanctions against Patriarch Kirill "for his support of Russian military aggression in Ukraine." In addition to the head of the Russian Orthodox Church, Maria Lvova-Belova, Commissioner for Children’s Rights under the President of Russia, is on the list “for the forced displacement and adoption of Ukrainian children”, Moscow City Duma deputy Sergey Savostyanov, head of the Volga-Dnepr airline Alexei Isaikin, members of the military command and the pro-Russian administration of the Kherson areas.

12:52 Spot gas prices in Europe today for the first time since early April exceeded $1,500 per thousand cubic meters. Russian Permanent Representative to the EU Vladimir Chizhov warned that further problems with the repair of Siemens gas compressor units (GCUs) could lead to a complete shutdown of the Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline to Germany.

In two days, deliveries through the gas pipeline fell by two-thirds: Gazprom claims that the reason is the shutdown of the units to be repaired and Canada's failure to return the repaired gas compressor unit due to sanctions. Engie, Uniper and OMV announced a decrease in gas supplies from Russia, writes Bloomberg, Germany directly accused Russia of politically motivated manipulation of gas prices.

The reduction in supplies comes in the context of the visit of the leaders of Italy, France and Germany to Kiev, the fire at the Urengoy field of Gazprom, a heat wave in Europe and a decrease in LNG supplies from the United States.

12:25 The confiscated yacht Amadea, which the United States has associated with Suleiman Kerimov, has been issued by the Fiji authorities and is starting to move to Honolulu (Hawaii, USA) with a new crew, writes Bloomberg. The future fate of the vessel with an estimated cost of $325 million will also be determined there.

So far, it looks like the trial will be long: the owner of the yacht Millemarin Investments Ltd. will prove that the ultimate owner is not Kerimov, but the ex-president of Rosneft, Eduard Khudainatov, who did not fall under the sanctions. The US insists that Khudainatov is nothing more than a "pure" face value. Long trials are also expected in other cases related to the confiscation of the yachts of Russian "oligarchs".

12:10 "Yandex" agreed with the holders of 84.9% of convertible bonds on their redemption. For every $200,000 of the face value of the bonds, bondholders will receive $140,000 and 957 Yandex NV shares.

Problems with convertible bonds arose after the freeze in early March of trading in shares of Russian companies in the US. Yandex then warned investors about the risk of default: if trading stops for more than five days, holders of all bonds issued by the company (for $ 1.25 billion) could demand redemption. However, the company managed to negotiate with investors - we talked about what was happening here .

11:51 X5 Group buys 15 Prisma stores in St. Petersburg from the Finnish operator SOK Retail, which is leaving Russia. The deal has been approved by the Federal Antimonopoly Service, and the stores should open after rebranding in mid-July.

11:34 St. Petersburg The exchange has decided on the date for the start of trading in shares of Chinese and Hong Kong companies - they will be launched on June 20, told a representative of the site RBC. Later, the message appeared on the exchange website.

At the start, investors will have access to 12 securities of issuers from Hong Kong and mainland China. Over the next two months, it is planned to expand the range of papers to 50 items, by the end of the year - up to 200, and during 2023 - up to a thousand. Settlements will be made in Hong Kong dollars without the participation of European clearing companies.

Shares of St. Petersburg Exchange after this news went up on its floor by 13%, and on the Moscow Stock Exchange, its quotes at the moment soared by more than 30%.

11:23 Decathlon stores in Moscow will close on June 26, has learned The Moscow Times . The closure is temporary until the logistics are established, there will be no cuts, according to the interlocutors of the publication. Decathlon (along with Auchan and Leroy Merlin, owned by companies from the French Muillier family group) is being boycotted by consumers in a number of foreign countries for continuing to operate in Russia. The Decathlon network has already been partially closed in Russia due to logistical difficulties.

10:53 The National Bank of Switzerland, after the decision of the Fed to raise the rate by 0.75 percentage points, unexpectedly raised the rate by 0.5 percentage points - for the first time since 2007. The rate remained negative, minus 0.25%. The Swiss franc gained 2% and approached parity with the euro. The inflation forecast has been noticeably raised - 2.8% this year (from 2.1%), 1.9% in 2023 (0.9%) and 1.6% in 2024 (0.9%).

10:46 Discount airline Pobeda may move to its parent Aeroflot at Sheremetyevo Airport from Vnukovo, a decision is expected by July. According to RBC , the handling company Vnukovo UTG sent a notice to Pobeda about the termination of the current contract, offering new ground handling conditions with an increase in most tariffs by 30-40%.

10:15 Nabiullina: foreign currency deposits will not be confiscated, the dollar will not be banned.

10:02 Nabiullina: We keep forgetting that the financial system is an intermediary, it is a balance of interests of those who have money and those who want it. Therefore, its sustainability is an unconditional value. It is impossible to finance the restructuring of the economy only at the expense of depositors and creditors. As for the priority of the tasks at hand:

• Creation of its own system of international settlements based on partnership;
• Financing the structural restructuring of the economy - taking into account the interests of depositors and without excessive burden on banks. Banks should not be forced to finance hopeless projects, but the growth of risks is an objective process, regulation will be adapted. Banks will partly have to play the role of development institutions;
• Return of private investors' confidence in the stock market;
• Creation of a system of private venture financing.

09:50 Meanwhile, the leaders of three key European countries - Mario Draghi, Emmanuel Macron and Olaf Scholz - arrived in Kiev by train to meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

09:45 Siluanov: in addition to the existing budgetary incentives, the state could take on business risks in terms of selling manufactured goods, “for example, through the mechanism of offset contracts.” Theoretically, it would be possible to transfer officials to Lada with domestic airbags. They have already tried to do this, but it did not work out, the moderator reminded the minister.

09:41 Nabiullina: in order not to return to the Soviet Union, you need to look at private initiative differently - if you let it manifest, the economy can modernize.

09:33 Oreshkin (answering a question about the prospects in the context of the release of Lada Granta without ABS): “The thousand-year history of Russia [“ it’s already strong - this is a blow below the belt, ”comments the presenter] says that we always cope, we can handle it in this time, let's do it, let's do it well. Yes, it will take time, effort, work, efforts - but we will do it!

09:31 Finance Minister Anton Siluanov also believes that there will be no return to the previous state. And in addition to GDP growth, when assessing the economy, it is necessary to rely on the dynamics of income and inflation.

09:25 Nabiullina: now Russia is losing from the international division of labor - "our exports are at a discount, imports at a premium." Therefore, it is necessary to stop considering exports as a value in itself - a significant part of production should work for the domestic market.

09:23 The first dispute of the economic session is between Oreshkin and Nabiullina. The presidential adviser said in passing that the negative forecasts in March were made by those who wanted to hurt the economy. “Looking for someone to blame in predictors is the last thing, in my opinion ... especially given the highest uncertainty,” the chairman of the Central Bank replied. The main thing, according to her, is to respond quickly to the situation.

09:18 Maxim Oreshkin: “The events that are taking place now, how the state, business, people react to what is happening in the economy, says that we have coped, we are a strong country, we are strong people, we can solve problems, we can achieve results. You just have to believe in yourself!"

09:05 has begun at SPIEF A key economic session — The Russian Economy: Modern Challenges and Support Points. Participants - Elvira Nabiullina, Maxim Oreshkin, Anton Siluanov, Maxim Reshetnikov. The host is Andrey Makarov, Chairman of the Budget Committee of the State Duma.

The first question of the presenter: will everything be the same? Maxim Oreshkin answers: waiting out is a losing strategy and the wrong approach, profound changes are taking place in the world. “It won’t be like before, there are no other options,” says the presidential aide.

08:48 More and more economists are predicting a recession in the United States after the Fed raised the rate by 0.75 percentage points the day before, writes Bloomberg. So, Wells Fargo expects a "moderate recession" in mid-2023, Moody's Analytics believes that the likelihood of a soft landing in the economy has decreased. “It is clear that the Fed will raise the rate until it reverses inflation, the problem is that, together with inflation, it can reverse the economy,” writes Moody's chief monetary policy specialist Ryan Sweet.

8:33 Highlights for the night and morning of June 16:

- The Russians began to massively underestimate the mileage of cars sold on the secondary market, writes Kommersant , citing data from online aggregators. On average, every second car with mileage has signs of "twisting" the odometer. Most often, cars with twisted mileage are sold in the regions of Siberia and the Far East, less often in Moscow and St. Petersburg.

- SPB Exchange will begin trading in shares of Chinese and Hong Kong companies on June 20, a representative of the site told RBC. At the start, investors will have access to 12 securities of issuers from Hong Kong and mainland China. Over the next two months, it is planned to expand the range of papers to 50 items, by the end of the year - up to 200, and during 2023 - up to a thousand. Settlements will be made in Hong Kong dollars without the participation of European clearing companies.

- which is leaving AFK Sistema and Hoff are interested in buying furniture factories from IKEA, Russia. AFK Sistema, such a deal could provide synergy with the timber holding Segezha Group, Vladimir Yevtushenkov, the main owner of the investment company, told Vedomosti. Hoff is also ready to consider IKEA assets if such an offer is made to it, said Maxim Grishakov, CEO of the company. According to him, this fits into Hoff's development strategy.

- Baikal Electronics may freeze the project for the release of Baikal-S server processors presented at the end of 2021 due to problems with placing orders for production in Taiwan, Kommersant . reports citing sources According to them, a number of large structures, including Sberbank, counted on significant batches of servers on Baikal-S in order to fulfill the requirements for import substitution. Now Russian companies will have to look for ways to parallel import servers on foreign processors, since there will be no alternative.

— The government admitted that the current exchange rate of the ruble is not comfortable for Russian exporters. The fact that the ruble is “overstrengthened” in an interview was stated by First Deputy Prime Minister Andrei Belousov with TASS. “Our ruble is overstrengthened, 55-60 rubles per dollar, this is too strong a rate. Especially against the backdrop of deflation and high interest rates,” he said. According to Belousov, "a comfortable exchange rate for our industry is from 70 to 80 rubles per dollar." In May, presidential aide Maxim Oreshkin called the rate in the range of 55-60 rubles. / $ market. Why this is not so, we explained here .

— The Austrian OMV, following the Italian Eni and the German Uniper, announced a reduction in gas supplies from Russia, writes Vedomosti . A company spokesman did not elaborate on how much the shipments had dropped. At Eni, they fell by 15%, Uniper began to receive 25% less fuel than stipulated by the contract. Gazprom explains the decline in supplies to Europe via Nord Stream with problems with equipment: according to the company, Siemens delayed the return from repair of gas pumping units. As Siemens explained, the turbines for Nord Stream are produced by Canada. Now one engine is being repaired in Montreal, and it is impossible to return the repaired units due to Canadian sanctions.

— Russian online cinemas have dramatically increased purchases of films and series from Korea and Turkey, reports RBC . And Wink has also increased the range for fans of Indian cinema. However, experts interviewed by the publication doubt that such content will be able to replace Western premieres for viewers.

- The authorities want to replace the price of Urals oil in the macro forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development with another indicator, learned Vedomosti . According to one of the sources, the cost of Urals now varies so much that the budget formed in relation to its price may be significantly distorted.

Continued online June 16

21:05 The Fed raised the base rate by 0.75 percentage points - the largest increase since 1994.

19:13 Deflation in Russia again: minus 0.14% for the week by June 10, Rosstat reported. If we count the week of zero inflation by May 27, prices in Russia have not increased or decreased for almost a month in a row. Accordingly, inflation in annual terms decreased - 16.69%.

Deflation in the last week was caused by an accelerated reduction in the price of food products (-0.35%) due to the ongoing deflation of fruits and vegetables, the Ministry of Economic Development explains. At the same time, price increases for most non-durable goods are slowing down, prices for tourism and regulated services are falling slightly, and prices in the non-food sector are generally not rising.

There is nothing good in deflation: now in Russia it is primarily a sign of a reduction in demand in the economy, explained The Bell . This is fraught with a deflationary spiral, with manufacturers running at a loss, reducing investment and staff, rising unemployment, and as a result, demand falls even more.

18:55 According to Bloomberg , the new $650 million US military aid package to Ukraine includes Harpoon anti-ship missiles (ASMs) on a mobile chassis. Ukraine demanded the supply of anti-ship missiles as part of a possible deal to clear the corridors from its ports and supply grain, to protect against the Russian threat from the sea.

15:49 A competitor, the furniture chain Hoff, is ready to buy the assets of IKEA leaving Russia “in the event of an appropriate offer”. This was announced by Hoff CEO Maxim Grishakov. We can also talk about part of the production assets of the Swedish company.

15:08 According to the Russian Ministry of Finance, the average price of Urals oil for the monitoring period from May 15, 2022 to June 14 was $87.491 per barrel, or $638.7 per ton. According to the ministry's calculations, from July 1, the export duty on oil will increase by $10.4 to $55.2 per ton.

Russian oil has noticeably risen in price: from April 15 to May 14, a Urals barrel cost $73.24, from March 15 to April 14 - $79.81. However, Brent oil has not fallen below $100 since May 15, now it is at $120 per barrel.

14:21 as the most competitive economy in the world in 2022 According to IMD Business School, Denmark was recognized (last year it was Switzerland). Denmark enjoys all the benefits of EU membership, is considered the most digitalized and greenest in the world, and has a flexible and efficient corporate sector, explains IMD. It has also weathered the pandemic better than its more affluent neighbors, thanks to strong social ties, a socially oriented economy, low debt levels, and limited reliance on tourism. Now unemployment in Denmark is at a 14-year low, and GDP this year should grow by 3.4%.

13:28 Bitcoin quotes today fell close to $20 thousand - this is the minimum since December 2020. The main cryptocurrency is falling nine days in a row, and this is the longest fall since 2014.

13:10 At today's emergency meeting of the ECB, the situation with the public debt of Italy is being discussed, and the resumption of the "coronavirus" government bond buying program is not ruled out, writes Bloomberg. The regulator seeks to avoid fragmentation of the EU debt market, when the yields on Italy's obligations exceed 4%, and the spread with the German debt rate reaches 2.4%.

13:07 The Central Bank announced that the conversion of depository receipts, which is blocked due to sanctions restrictions, will be possible through the Russian depository without the need to turn to foreign infrastructure.

13:02 IKEA decided to "reduce the scale of business in Russia," told the company's press service RBC. In particular, the furniture retailer will get rid of its production assets in Russia and sell all four of its factories. The company's retail business in Russia remains on pause, while "optimization" awaits employees.

“Over the past few months, the situation with business processes and supply chains around the world has deteriorated greatly. In view of this, we do not see the possibility of resuming sales in the foreseeable future, ”said IKEA. The company has already begun searching for new owners for enterprises in the Leningrad, Kirov and Novgorod regions.

12:42 The Ministry of Finance denies the information that it was instructed to freeze foreign currency accounts without confirming the source of income . According to the agency, such fake news is distributed by certain Telegram channels.

“In connection with reports that have appeared in Telegram channels that the Ministry of Finance has been instructed to strengthen currency control and freeze foreign currency accounts without confirming the source of income, we report that this information is fake,” the press service of the Ministry of Finance said. The message emphasizes that the department is not authorized to control currency transactions and the origin of funds.

11:56 The security forces detained the top manager of Aeroflot, Mikhail Minaev, who was responsible for the planning and development of the aircraft fleet in the company, RBC reports , citing a source. According to the Telegram channel of the Cheka-OGPU, on Friday the court sent Minaev under arrest. RBC's source confirms this information. It is reported that the top manager is accused of fraud on an especially large scale (part 4 of article 159 of the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation). The purchase and leasing of aircraft went through the department of Minaev.

In May, under the same article, was arrested another former top manager of Aeroflot, Andrey Panov, the ex-deputy general director, the author of the strategy of Aeroflot and Pobeda, in absentia. In March, he left the company and left Russia, and in April he wrote an op-ed for the Financial Times condemning the "special operation" in Ukraine. Panov considers the criminal case against himself politically motivated.

11:04 Today is the first day of SPIEF. In the program of the forum, it is designated as "starting", you can see what events are planned for today here . The main sessions will be held June 16-18. Stands at the forum site were opened by Gazprom Neft, PhosAgro, Rostelecom, MKB, VK, RNCB, Kaspersky Lab, Yappy, Russian Export Center, Sberbank, Bashkir Soda Company and others. Forum guests are greeted by the robot Dunyasha, who sells ice cream and coffee.

Vladimir Putin will speak at SPIEF on June 17. According to his assistant Yury Ushakov, the president in his speech "will give an assessment of the current situation in the world economy and politics", will talk "about the problems that the world economy is facing today, about unfair interstate competition, trade and financial wars, sanctions, restrictions" , as well as "on the trend towards the formation of a multipolar economic model."

8:33 Highlights for the night and morning of June 15:

- The owner of Avito, the Dutch Prosus, is negotiating the sale of the service to the VK holding, Bloomberg reports citing sources. According to the agency, businessman Vladimir Potanin is also interested in the asset. Bloomberg also notes that in addition to Avito, Prosus may also sell its 25.7% stake in the VK holding.

- Losses of Russian banks this year may amount to 1.5-3 trillion rubles and even higher compared to 2.4 trillion rubles of net profit last year, said Andrei Kostin, head of VTB, in an interview with Kommersant. At the same time, he opposes additional capitalization of the banking sector. According to Kostin, it would be enough to abandon some of the requirements for the capital of banks, which are established by the international banking standards "Basel III", adopted after the crisis of 2007-2008. The document defines the methodology for calculating bank capital and its minimum level - at least 8% of the amount of risk-weighted assets. According to Kostin, 4% would be enough, as in Japan. In an interview, Kostin also gave a forecast for the dollar at the end of the year: he considers the market price to be 70-75 rubles. But in order for the rate to return to this level, according to him, it is necessary to restore imports.

- The government does not want to transfer the state-owned 35.91% of Rostelecom to the Rostec state corporation, writes Kommersant , citing sources. According to them, the idea was not continued and "the issue is closed." One of the reasons for this decision was the fear that in the event of a share transfer, the relevant Deputy Prime Minister and member of the board of directors of Rostelecom Dmitry Chernyshenko, as well as the Ministry of Digital Transformation, would lose leverage over the company.

— General Director of Rostec Sergey Chemezov wrote a column for RBC about import substitution. In it, he criticized both optimists (who see only new opportunities in sanctions and do not notice problems) and pessimists (who believe that Russia cannot cope without Western technologies and goods). According to Chemezov, in the current conditions it is necessary "to maintain a sober mind and be aware of the scale of the tasks facing us." He believes that "replacing everything is pointless, economically inexpedient and simply impossible", "this is not done by any developed country in the world." And in order for import substitution to be successful, Russian consumers need to support Russian developments: “To have your own, you need to buy your own - there is no other way.”

— Russian bakers lack the state support measures taken in March. According to Kommersant , the Russian Union of Bakers has asked the State Duma to increase the subsidy from 2.5 rubles to 7.5 rubles per 1 kg, extend it to a wider range, and also give recipients the opportunity to raise prices.

Continued online June 15

18:50 Blocked and recognized as extremist, Instagram and Facebook are rapidly losing their audience, The Bell found out.

• If before the war the average daily coverage of Instagram in Russia was almost 39 million people, then by mid-April it fell to 14.5 million, and by the end of May - to 11.7 million , calculated at our request in Mediascope.
• At Facebook, the coverage collapsed from 6.7 million users per day, first to 2.9 million people, and then to 2.2 million .

In fact, things are even worse, the researchers stipulate: these figures include sessions lasting less than five minutes. This means that some users enter the application, see that nothing is happening in it due to blocking - and immediately exit, Mediascope explained. If we exclude such sessions, it turns out that the average daily reach of Instagram in the mobile version is now only 5.5 million users, Facebook - even 370 thousand .

Meanwhile, the Telegram audience in Russia has almost doubled since the end of February, to 40 million users.

17:32 The US Treasury issued a general license that allows until December 5 energy transactions with Otkritie Bank, VEB, VTB, Alfa-Bank, Sberbank and Sovcombank, as well as the Central Bank.

17:01 The Ministry of Finance has closed data on expenditures for various items of the federal budget.

Previously, these data were published monthly. And in today's press release of the ministry on the execution of the budget for January-May 2022, there are only aggregate figures for expenditures and incomes.

In its release, the Ministry of Finance explains the closure of these data by sanctions. “In connection with the pressure exerted by the United States, the EU, Great Britain and other unfriendly states on the Russian Federation and individuals, it became necessary to partially limit the dissemination of information, including on the formation of budget reporting. This will help minimize the risk of additional sanctions,” the agency said in a statement.

From the previous, April statistics of the Ministry of Finance, we learned , for example, about the growth of military budget spending by 130%.

15:59 The Russian currency continues to strengthen despite the cancellation of the sale of 50% of foreign exchange earnings and other financial measures of the authorities. During trading on the Moscow Exchange, the dollar fell below 56 rubles, the euro - below 58 rubles. For both currency pairs, these are the lows since May 25.

14:16 "Gazprom" warned of a decrease in pumping through the "Nord Stream - 1". The fact is that Siemens, which stopped working in Russia, did not return gas compressor units (GPU) from repair, and some of them ran out of overhaul life. Therefore, at the Portovaya compressor station, only three GCUs can be used and up to 100 million cubic meters of gas per day can be pumped into Nord Stream, against the planned 167 million cubic meters per day.

13:51 Bloomberg advises investors on how to behave in a bear market.

• First, remember that losses are always felt more acutely than gains—and that despite a 20% market drop YTD, the index still returned 70% (with dividends) over a five-year horizon. “It is possible that your best reaction is to follow the previous plan,” the agency notes.
• If you're really uncomfortable, ask yourself if you've become too reliant on one sector of the market - the tech sector or even one Tesla. Diversification does not promise immediate gain or even protection, but it can pay off in the later stages of a bear market.
• Don't make all-or-nothing decisions. Nothing prevents you from getting rid of, for example, half of the package.
• Accept the fact that cryptocurrencies are not a defensive, but a speculative asset.
• Don't try to bottom in cash.

13:21 Another evidence of a price shock in the US economy before the Fed's decision on the rate: diesel fuel for the year (according to the EIA) has risen in price by 75% to $5.72 per gallon - more than gasoline ($5, +60%). The inflationary contribution of diesel fuel is the maximum, because it is the main fuel of the real economy, writes FT. For example, one of the medium-sized farmers interviewed by the publication has already laid down and agreed with the recipients a 25% increase in the purchase price of a part of crops.

12:36 The Central Bank proposed to allow the Russians to forbid themselves loans in their credit history, the regulator will issue an appropriate act. It will be possible to ban and remove restrictions many times and for free. “Banks and MFIs will have to check the presence of self-restrictions in the borrower's credit history before issuing loans and loans. And if, despite the fact that they are acting, the creditor will still issue the money, he will not be able to demand repayment of the debt, ”said Mikhail Mamuta, head of the Central Bank’s Consumer Rights Protection and Financial Services Accessibility Service.

12:07 Fears of stagflation among investors at a maximum since 2008, showed a monthly survey of investment fund managers BofA. Some of the results (for example, 73% expect the economy to weaken in the next 12 months) are the worst since these polls began in 1994. The data was collected before the release of statistics on record inflation in the US (8.6%) on Friday, June 10th.

11:50 Natalia Poklonskaya announced that she was appointed to the position of adviser to the Prosecutor General. “I stop maintaining social pages and any public activity,” she said.

11:32 Elon Musk this Thursday, for the first time since the offer to buy Twitter, will directly address the company's employees - and accept questions in advance.

11:14 Moscow exchange stopped trading in Swiss francs. The reason is the sanctions imposed by Switzerland since June 10 (more precisely, the country's decision to join the sixth EU package, which includes sanctions against the National Settlement Depository (NSD), owned by the Moscow Exchange). Previously concluded transactions in francs will be carried out.

What the sanctions against NSD threaten the Russian market with, we explained here .

The main thing for the night and morning

• Sales continue in global markets after the US inflation report showed that hopes for a peak did not come true, and the Fed will be forced to raise rates by another 0.75 percentage points this week, even at the risk of a recession. The stock market has officially entered the “bear” era: the riskier the asset, the more it fell, the worst is the situation in the cryptocurrency markets.
• American Interactive Brokers has warned clients from Russia and Belarus that they will no longer be able to buy shares of EU companies. The restrictions came into force on the evening of June 13. Shares of European companies were not particularly popular among Russian investors anyway, the problem is a possible ban on American securities.
• By the end of the year, 15% or 15 thousand dollar millionaires will leave Russia, but in relative terms Ukraine will lose a record number of highnets (2800 or 42%), follows from the report Henley & Partners . Great Britain will lose the status of the most attractive country for the rich, this "crown" at the expense of those leaving Russia will be intercepted by the UAE.
• Finnish Fortum intends to sell all Russian assets by July 1. The main contender is Gazprombank, Inter RAO, SUEK and Novatek are also participating.
• The European Commission is recommending EU candidate status for Ukraine this week, Politico has learned . This does not mean the automatic consent of all member countries (against at least three countries), the option of some kind of intermediate status is still not ruled out.
• VTB President Andrei Kostin in a column for RBC announced the beginning of Cold War 2.0 and the end of globalization. For the banking sector, this should mean further devaluation of balance sheets. Russia took advantage of the fruits of globalization (including by adopting high technologies), Kostin admitted, but now it is time to admit that “unequal” integration could not be sustainable.

Continued online The Bell. The broadcast for July 6–13 can be read here .