From the elite of modernization to the elite of coercion. What will happen to the Russian ruling class in the coming months

The intermediate results of war unleashed in Ukraine are already visible. Russia will still lie in the so-called DPR and, possibly, in order to establish some kind of management in the already occupied territories in the south and east of Ukraine, will conduct limited mobilization within the country. But the first round of aggressive war seems to end.

Judging by the conversations flying from Moscow, the attention of the Russian military-political leadership is rapidly switched to other “international” issues. The construction of a state joint with Belarus as a real political education with a separate capital and other institutions. The strengthening of the Allied and Partners bloc, that is, the coercion of the EAEU states to cooperates in the bypass of sanctions, the organization of financial hubs for Russia and a parallel and simply gray import. The creation of a certain similarity of the international “anti -Western” coalition under the symbolic leadership of Russia and with the unspoken approval of the PRC.

The main domestic political question is what will happen to the ruling group following the results of the war? On the one hand, many officials and managers, to put it mildly, did not justify the hopes of Vladimir Putin. On the other hand, Putin is known that he does not like to change personnel, because he believes that any permutations can be interpreted as committed under external pressure. Hence the manic stubbornness on the issue of resignation.

The war has not yet led to the replacement of the government or the personnel update of the Kremlin administration. But she completely changed the landscape, the system of guidelines, which was used by representatives of Putin’s personal environment (“courtyard”), senior officials and a layer of managers from the State Business business.

The most significant consequence of the war can be called the final collapse of the "lake"

- Not the cooperative itself, but the network of special trusting connections that united the president with his old St. Petersburg environment.

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