If not baiden, then the one

Will the Democratic Party be able to maintain power in 2024

American voters are grateful to the Biden government for record -based unemployment, but angry with record high inflation. Conservative decisions of the Supreme Court - for example, the cancellation of the ban on the ban on abortion - outrage the progressive public, but it already votes for the Democrats. Nothing affects fundamental dynamics - in November 2022, democrats almost certainly (say, with a probability of 90%) will lose the House of Representatives and, possibly, the Senate (say, 50%).

The fact that the Republicans will control at least one ward of the parliament for the next two years means that no serious reforms will happen during this time. At the same time, historically, this does not mean that the chances of winning the democrats in the 2024 presidential elections are very different from 50%. Both Clinton and Obama won the re -election after their party crashed intermediate elections.

Nevertheless, there are more and more signs that President Biden will not try to re -elect for a second term. Such situations happen once in forty years, but happen. In 1952, President Truman did not participate in the elections, and in 1968 President Johnson made the same decision. In both cases, they had a chance, but, apparently, small ones - in both cases it was a serious probability that they would not be able to become candidates from their party, and they decided not to risk it.

Biden's situation is similar, and differs from the situation of Truman and Johnson. On the one hand, unpopular. Over the past eighty years, only one president has been so unpopular a year and a half after the election - Trump.

Not only independent voters, but also half of the democrats who approve of his activities do not want him to be elected for a second term.

On the other hand, it looks like Biden will still easily win any democrat if he risks putting his candidacy against him.

Republicans, especially Trump supporters, like to share videos about how Baiden confuses the words or turns in the wrong direction after the performance. As in the case of Trump, which confused the words no less, it is mainly nonsense. By all signs, Biden is in an exceptional intellectual and physical form for a 79-year-old person. Unfortunately for Bayden, 79 years old - this is already a lot, even in an era, when people began to live longer. It gives three times less press conferences than his direct predecessors gave (although he more often goes to the press for a couple of questions) and even less interviews. By the end of the second period, if it is, Biden will be 86 ... In short, age is not a decisive factor at the moment, but it must be taken into account.

The main thing that works in the “back”, in favor of the fact that Biden will still be a candidate in 2024 is the confidence of everyone that Biden will win if his opponent is Trump. Polls show the equality and even the advantage of Trump, but it is very similar that in this case the alignment will remain the same as two years ago - that is, winning for Biden. At the same time, the chances that Trump - the most popular Republican and recordly popular in his party, the former president will be a candidate in the next election, are steadily falling. He is four years younger than Biden, but he is also very many years old and this is visible. It is hard to believe that Bill Clinton - younger both Biden and Trump chosen thirty years ago.

What will happen if Baiden refuses the candidate in 2024? I think that this can happen shortly after the elections in the Congress-2022-if, as expected, the Republicans will take the House of Representatives. In this case, Biden does not make sense to be afraid to become a “lame duck” - he will essentially become her. It would be good for the party’s election campaign to have one and a half to two years, so he will not be like Truman or Johnson to wait for the beginning of the year of the election. For comparison, Johnson announced that he would not participate in 1968 at the end of March.

Who will be a candidate or presidential candidate from the Democrats if Biden will withdraw his candidacy? One thing is clear-the vice president of Kamaly Harris has no special advantage.

For a year and a half, she failed to become a “second man” in the Democratic Party, and simply support her popularity.

After an endlessly conducted election campaign, she became the understudy of Biden. Vice President is a great post, and the vast majority of former vice presidents who, in turn, tried to become presidents, received a chance to be candidates. Nevertheless, Kamale Harris is not guaranteed.

If not Harris, then who? I hope and predict - although this is far from always the same thing - that democrats nominated the representative of the "new generation" in 2024. Not Bernie Sanders, not Elizabeth Warren. If not Harris, then maybe Pete Buttijich - he definitely leads an election campaign. Well, to the extent to which the minister can lead to the election campaign, whom the president can still be fired at any moment, still insisting that he himself will participate in the race in 2023-2024.

However, the list of applicants is not limited to those who participated in the 2020 campaign. “Shadow applicants” are, for example, some governors. Governor Illinois Jay Okotsker, a billionaire from the family of Hayatt network owners, knows how to win in a state in which the Democrats do not dominate, successfully spent the first term, and yes, its own billions can help at the initial stage. Governor Gavin News is a huge state of California, and Democrat Roy Cooper won the governorship in North Carolin, who voted for Trump, is an advantage if he becomes a candidate. An even brighter “shadow candidate” is Governor of Michigan Gretchen Whitmer. She has a heavy, with chances of 50 to 50, the struggle for a re -election in November. However, if she wins, it will automatically become a real contender for the candidate from the Democrats in 2024.

As always at this stage, one can only be surprised at how wide a list of candidates with real chances of the future is the presidency, from which a wide range of talents a choice will be made. With the reservation this time, that first, President Biden should make his decision on non -participation in the next race.