The first for 11 years to increase the rate in Europe, the Ministry of Justice against Israel and Sobyanin and Belousov under EU sanctions

For the first time in 11 years, the European Central Bank raised the key rate - and immediately by two steps, by 0.5 percentage points. This was not the case of the very launch of the currency union in 2000. The predictable, but unexpectedly sharp step of the ECB marks the end of the eight -year era of negative rates in deposits and adds the risks of recession. The ECB expects that the effect of a quick increase in the rate will be softened by a new tool - the mechanism of buying out the debt TPI, which is designed to slow down the increase in the cost of lending to the EU.

Suddenly an energetic step in the ECB demonstrates that its leadership is seriously concerned about the prospect of long high inflation, which has already once exceeded the official goal of 2% in June, but still hopes to combine the fight against inflation and deviation from the recession. Before that, officials signaled that the rate would rise by 0.25 percentage points. “Pricing pressure applies to new sectors of the economy. We expect inflation to remain at an undesirable high level for some time, ”the head of the ECB Christin Lagarda explained the decision.
Inflation in the eurozone in June reached a new historical record - 8.6%, 4.5 times higher than the ECB target. According to the results of the first quarter, the Eurozone economy is still in the plus (0.27% of growth) and may remain in it at the end of the year - but in 2023 the recession in Europe is inevitable, ING analysts wrote this week. The unexpectedly tough decision of the ECB at the rate only strengthens this inevitability.
The deposit rate was also increased by 0.5 percentage points. And she became zero, for the first time in eight years, having left the negative field. This was the day before only four out of 53 analysts interviewed by Bloomberg. Lagarda made all the previous weeks that the deposit rate would be increased by only one step; Anonymous ECB officials replaced rhetoric only on Tuesday, the agency notes. The return of the zero deposit rate symbolizes the end of an eight -year experiment with negative real bets, notes The Wall Street Journal.
No less important news is the introduction of a new mechanism for buying out the debt papers of the EU member states called Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI). It should weaken the fragmentation of the EU debt load - the increased vulnerability of the most dedicated countries (in particular, Italy, Spain and Portugal) to the growth of bets and the subsequent increase in the cost of borrowing. TPI will be used in case of accelerated need and will primarily affect the public debt, but can also be extended to corporate paper.
Immediately after the news released on the actions of the ECB, the euro strengthened by 0.8% of the dollar, to $ 1.026, and the Italy index, in which the political crisis was added to the long -term crisis after the resignation of Prime Minister Mario Draga, reduced losses to minus 0.9%. The spread between the Italian and German government bonds fell slightly - to 2.23 percentage points. But shortly after the press conference, Lagard (she stated that the ECB sees the space of further increase in the rate, and the recession is not a basic script) Euro returned to $ 1.0175 to the dollar, and the spreads of the state-owned Encovement-Hermania-to the previous value.
Investors did not like that Lagarda did not bring the details of a further increase in the rate and use of the TPI mechanism. Bloomberg indicates that an unexpectedly sharp step in the increase sharply dispersed from the long -term practice of the regulator and “killed” the ECB forecast at the rate as one of the types of verbal interventions.
The greatest uncertainty is associated precisely with the mechanism of buying out the debt of TPI, and a separate release did not fully clarify the situation. While the program looks as wide as possible. The volume of TPI will be evaluated by the ECB itself, depending on the risks of fragmentation for a single monetary policy, the pre-established maximum threshold does not exist, and potentially not boring. Everyone will be able to participate in the program, not just the “weak” eurozone economies, and one of the criteria will be a fiscal discipline of the country. The ECB prefers not to use TPI, but it will do it if necessary, the release said. In detail about why this mechanism is needed, we talked here .

What am I to me?

Like all the othernumerous signals about the possibility of a global economic crisis, alarming news from the eurozone is unlikely to have a serious impact on the Russian market, cut off from the world war and sanctions. But for Russians who were able to save or withdraw money to Europe, this news remains alarming: we recently reminded how, after the previous debt crisis, Russian companies and investors could lose up to 3.5 billion euros in one day in Cyprus.

Signals

The Ministry of Justice closes "dry"

The Russian authorities, whatever their logic, for the second time since the beginning of the war, inflict a serious blow to relations with Israel - the only remaining "friendly country" in the Western camp. As the Israeli media predicted in early July, the Ministry of Justice filed a lawsuit today for the liquidation of the Russian unit of the International Jewish Agency "Dry" - the most important organization for Israel that supports Jewish diasporas around the world and helps Jewish repatriation in Israel. Earlier, the Ministry of Justice conducted an audit of the agency, after which the Russian Foreign Ministry advised him to eliminate violations ( as the Jerusalem Post, related to the “illegal collection of information about Russian citizens”). The lawsuit was filed a week after a visit to Israel of US President Joe Biden.

The previous aggravation of relations with Israel (after the Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that “Hitler had Jewish blood,” and “the most ardent anti -Semites, as a rule, Jews”) managed to hush up after Vladimir Putin’s personal apologies . Now there is no need to wait for apologies, and Israel sends a government delegation to Russia to try to solve the problem. In the spring, the prime minister of Israel Naphtili Benetwas the chief candidate for negotiations between Russia and Ukraine - but since then peace negotiations have moved to the category of science fiction, and Benet left the post, and the head of the Foreign Ministry Lapid, who condemned the Russian invasion of Ukraine on the first day of the war, became his temporary successor before the elections in November.

SANCTIONS

Sobyanin and Belousov in the EU lists

The European Union officially published a new, seventh package of sanctions against Russia. The main measures are freezing Sberbank assets and a ban on the import of Russian gold. The first deputy prime minister Andrei Belousov, Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin, actors Vladimir Mashkov and Sergey Bezrukov, as well as the son of the buyer of Russian assets of McDonald's, deputy of the Kemerovo Legislative Assembly, Roman Govor, fell into sanctions lists.

Bell.club

What is happening in the Russian residential real estate market

The Russian residential real estate market is going through difficult times: the offer is growing, and the activity of buyers after a sharp drop in demand in April remains low .

What will happen next? Will demand restore in the fall, which is traditionally considered a high season for the real estate market? What can be price correction for the results of the year? And is it worth investing in real estate now?

Let's talk about this with experts on a special broadcast on the Bell.Club Live channel on July 27 at 19.00 in Moscow.

Our guests:

Irina Dobrokhotova, Chairman of the Board of Directors of the company "Best-Novostroy"
Alexey Novikov, managing partner of Knight Frank Russia & CIS, founder Parus Asset Management
Artem Tsogoev, member of the board of directors Simple Estate, real estate investment expert in Russia
Alexey Galtsev, CEO “Realiste” (service for evaluating real estate based on AI)
Victoria Kiryukhina, leading expert of the Analytical Center “Cyan”

Moderator: Andrey Lyubun, real estate investor, founder of the invest-club “Money”

Connect to the broadcast and ask your question! You can also send your questions in advance on Club@thebell.io .

What else happened

The pumping of gas in the Nord Stream, as expected, resumed in the amount of 40% of the gas pipeline power. At the same time, Russia is trying to retain all the reasons for gas threats. According to Reuters in the evening, the ill -fated turbine for the gas pipeline was stuck in Germany on the way from Canada to Russia. The sources of the agency claim that the problem arose on the side of Moscow, which did not give official permission to feed the unit.
Joe Biden a week after the visit to the Middle East passed a positive test ) on the Covid-19. According to the White House, his symptoms are moderate, Biden will continue to work on self -isolation.
The British group of HSBC has agreed to sell business in Russia to Igor Kim Expobank. Whether the transaction will prevent the recent decision of the Ministry of Finance to block the sale of “daughters” of foreign banks in Russia is unknown. But other large banks gathered to leave, including Citigroup and Raiffeisen, have already resumed employees in Russia.
The National Bank of Ukraine devalued the hryvnia to the dollar for a quarter - from 29.25 to 36.6 hryvnia per dollar to "increase the competitiveness of Ukrainian manufacturers, bring the course conditions for different business and the population groups and support the stability of the economy in war conditions." On the eve of Ukraine’s creditors agreed to delay the country's payments on external debt.