The world in Erdogan

Results of the grain transaction: the Turkish dictator may be the winner in Putin's war

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan forced Putin to sign a deal of Ukrainian grain on unprofitable and humiliating conditions. He completely finished Putin in Syria, thereby drowning Putin’s deal with Iran through drones. “Bayractars” of Russia refused to sell. And in addition to everything, Erdogan still does not allow Russian aircraft to fly to the Syrian air base of Khmeimim over the territory of Turkey and still does not produce Russian warships from Tartus-and it does not allow them to transport fuel, ammunition and food to them.

Erdogan forced Putin to wait for himself for 50 seconds. These were the 50 seconds for which the crown of the real builder of the new world order (the very multipolar, in which everything is decided not by the United States, but violence) - passed from one dictator to another.

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This week, Putin arrived in Tehran to ask Hamenie Ayatollah 300 Shahid drones copied by Iranians with an American Predator who once accidentally fell in their desert, and agree with Erdogan in Syria. Erdogan forced him to wait, and Ayatollah handed over his left - his hand considered in Islam. If we take into account that it was the same Tehran, where in 1943 Stalin, Roosevelt and Churchill shared the world, then the humiliation was great. And non -accident.

Erdogan has long been praising Putin on all fronts. He not only supplies Bayractars to Ukraine, but is also going to open a plant for their assembly there, and he refused Putin in Bayractar. He forbade any Russian aircraft to fly to Syria through Turkey, which is why they were forced to get to Khmeimim through Iran, and most importantly - he was the first world leader to take a pro -Ukrainian position at the very beginning of the war.

At the very moment when Biden also offered Zelensky a plane ticket, Erdogan destroyed Putin’s naval plans, closing the straits for the passage of military vessels. As a result, six Russian BDKs (large landing ships), which very successfully arrived in the Syrian Tartus on February 4, 2022, exactly before the start of the war, remained there.

Where did the Russian landing go to Odessa? There he, say thanks to Erdogan, sits in Tartus and, in general, is not supplied.

Note that this decision of Erdogan, which destroyed Putin's plans, has no consequences. Putin did not threaten Turkey with an atomic bomb - and did not threaten anything at all. Putin knows well who can be threatened, and with whom it is necessary to reckon. He is well aware of the order of the biting in a flock of dictators.

But the main thing: Erdogan, having driven the Russian group in Syria into a corner, decided to agree with Putin on the division of Syria, promising him in return the same grain agreement. Erdogan needed (for starters) a 40-kilometer security zone along the borders with Turkey, and in this territory, as luck would have it, the Kurds live. The Kurds agreed on mutual protection with Assad and hung his portraits in all their villages, and Putin pressed Erdogan under the pressure of Assad so that he would give him the Kurdov.

Iranians, having heard about this, were offended (this 40-kilometer zone does not smile at all under the control of the Sunnis) and Putin refused to the drones, especially since the United States threatened Iran in the case of the supply of drones to return all the sanctions and interrupt all negotiations, and Iran still does not have three hundred drones: Isaelian intelligence believes that there are so far out that they were around them. Hundreds. Hence the left hand of Ayatollah.

Thus, Putin, who once decided to support Assad, then to sell him more expensive than the United States, was forced to sell him to a completely different buyer-Turkey, and Assad went with a discount, because Putin had no real military forces in Syria. In return, Putin signed an agreement on grain, which makes Turkey the main hub on the distribution of Ukrainian grain in the Middle East, and Erdogan - his uncorrected grain sultan.

Two conditions of Moscow were tied to this agreement. Namely, Moscow wanted the Ukrainians to stop their attack on Kherson, and that Russian military inspectors had the opportunity to inspect the courts who came for bread right in the port of Odessa (as they imagined, by golly, it is difficult for me to imagine).

The Wishlist did not ask. The Turks (another point to Erdogan) will inspect the vessels, and the condition for the attack on Kherson is not included in the contract. The only thing that is listed in the contract is that Ukraine will conduct ships on the corridors among minefields. After the Russian marine infantrymen killed near Mariupol, after the cruiser Moscow, the islands of the snake and the sinking of the Boyko Haniles, Moscow lost control of the Black Sea water area in this place, and it will be unrealistic to use these corridors to land the landing. “This is completely impossible,” says Gary (Yuri) Tabakh, captain of the US Navy of the first rank in retired.

Great greetings to big landing ships in the port of Tartus. If Russia tries to land the landing, the Ukrainian "Neptune" will perceive this with enthusiasm.

According to rumors, Putin was not very pleased with the deal.

At the very time, when Putin was bent in front of Erdogan, Europe was bent under Putin. The Canadians, at a direct request from Germany, sent a unfortunate turbine to Cologne by a plane, under the pretext of which Gazprom put Europe on a hungry ration, after which Gazprom put the gas into the pipe, but at a level of 30% of the design capacity.

In parallel from Russia, some sanctions were lifted that did not really introduce. For example, you can read that sanctions on the export of grain and fertilizers have been removed from Russia, but this is simply not so. “Neither grain nor fertilizer was exported to the problem,” says a businessman familiar with the situation in the marine transportation market, “they just didn’t make payments. And all Russian exporters had problems with ships. Nobody was forbidden to anyone, but they just sent everyone. ”

Now the US Treasury has given a signal that payments can be made. Apparently, this will be accompanied by the lifting of sanctions from individuals - beneficiaries of chemical holdings - i.e. Melnichenko and Mazepin.

The one, however, was really important: the West agreed to resume the supply of air parts to Russia, and this is after Russia took the leasing Boeing and Eirbasy from the Western owners.

“From the very beginning, it was clear that the West in a fit of indignation introduced too many sanctions that were harmful to him,” one of my interlocutors, who was familiar with the situation and wished to remain unnamed, noted me. -He caused damage to $ 400-500 billion a year. If he lifted part of these sanctions, and instead sent the extra $ 50 billion to military assistance to Ukraine, this would be much more productive. ”

Erdogan won the most from the grain transaction, and followed by large grain traders, who all this time bought grain from Ukrainian farmers for pennies, motivating that it is unlikely to be able to take it out. But Ukraine, given the general disposition, did not lose. The deal does not damage its combat effectiveness.

There are only two minuses in all this mutual exchange, but quite large. The first is the Ukrainian military. The military is generally characterized by superbths (where the civilian sees the bush, the military suspect a sniper behind the bush), and the Ukrainian military, devoted to the authorities in 2014, tend to see a zranda everywhere. “Here shells fly on me, and they are talking,” one of my interlocutors told me, and the shells flew literally at the very moment when he said this. Starlink at the front during the battle gives an amazing connection - the fighters are bombed, and they read the news on tablets right at this time and get amazed.

And the second minus is the bureaucracy of the EU and the USA, which at first introduced ill -conceived prohibitions, the abolition of which Putin now perceives as evidence that the West (unlike Erdogan) is amenable to blackmail.

Especially when you consider that the whole theme of world hunger seems sucked from a finger. , Due to 20 million tons of grain, hunger in the world, which is 10% of the grown grain, is not allowed on biofuel, in which GMOs are prohibited (which raises productivity), and in which the market of organic (i.e. artificially expensive food) is about $ 200 billion a year.

On the day of the start of negotiations on the grain of Putin’s rocket, children in Vinnitsa were killed - and in response to Styvoric companies and banks, they made it clear that you can shake and make payments.

Then it was generally forbidden to ban the FIG?

That is why in the new world that Putin began to create this war, the future - if the West does not come to their senses, belongs to the Erdogans and Xi Jinping. It is not thief lousers who, due to failure, are trying to replenish the gaps in their ego - but a full -fledged cunning and insidious dictators combining a more or less successful economic policy with an insatiable thirst for power and geostrategia.

With his missile blow to the seaport in Odessa, Putin made it exhaustively to understand how he refers to what was forced to sign in Tehran.