"If you want to defeat the enemy, educate his children." Chronicles of hospitalism

Last week, there were many macroeconomic statistics and forecasts in the Russian information field. First of all, according to the latest data from Rosstat, according to the results of the second quarter, the Russian GDP decreased by 4% - thereby having lost four years of growth in three months and returning to the level of 2018, when President Putin once again proved that the national economy confidently entered the phase of sustainable development. However, this is only preliminary statistics for a relatively short period. In the week, several forecasts were presented at once, what to expect further.

The Central Bank in its “basic scenario” expects that the economy will pass the lower point of the fall in the first half of 2023, and from 2024 it will gradually begin to grow. Close estimates by the Ministry of Economic Development. The conceptual version of the future was presented by the center of macroeconomic analysis and short-term forecasting Dmitry Belousov, the brother of the first deputy prime minister of the government. The sanctions pressure on Russia will last at least 10-15 years. During this time, the country can go both along the path of “institutional inertia” (“more or less familiar with the last 15 years of economic policy-except for a slightly more stringent due to the shortage of rent”), and “situational adaptation” (“pursuing an extremely careful macroeconomic policy”). There is, however, the third scenario, designated by the authors of the forecast as "Autarchy":

“Russia (to the maximum possible degree) makes [all] itself,” albeit due to a decrease in the technological level of products, the fall of consumer and operational characteristics of products, and a decrease in the standard of living of the population. Under actually established conditions, the implementation of this option is extremely unlikely. However, he (at the level of transition to almost the “military economy”) may turn out to be almost the only possible in the case of a further sharp escalation of the Russian conflict with the countries - geopolitical opponents. ”

Dmitry Belousov / hse.ru

The course and medium -term consequences of the Russian “special operation” in Ukraine today are difficult to forecast. And not knowing the main thing, any scenario of the economic development of the Russian Federation, the significance of which is also not compared for the regime with the priority of foreign policy goals, is very conditional.

Accepting the military conflict as a protracted one, Western analysts are already beginning to calculate the current “trophies” in the territories under the control of the Russian military.

We are talking, in particular, about large Ukrainian mineral deposits, which the Washington Post wrote about the data to the data of the Canadian company SecDEV. The publication does not exclude that Ukraine can forever lose access to almost two thirds of its deposits. SECDEV clarifies that since February Russia confiscated 41 coal deposits, 27 - natural gas, 14 - propane, nine - oil, six - iron ore, two - titanium and zirconium ore, and one at a time - strontium, lithium, uranium, gold, as well as a large limestone mining quarry, previously used for the production of steel. Thus, to the present moment, the country has lost 63% of coal deposits, 11% - oil, 20% - natural gas, 42% of metals and 33% - rare -earth minerals, including lithium.

It is difficult to say what the fate of all these Ukrainian assets will turn out to be and what place they will take in the Kremlin calculations of “Profit and losses” of the decision of February 24. Yes, and are there any “economic” calculations that are appropriate here? Perhaps in the hope of somehow rationalize the actions of Moscow, The Washington Post provides an astronomical assessment of the total cost of energy, metals and mineral deposits-at least $ 12.4 trillion. And at the same time, the publication is quoted by Maxim Timchenko, the head of the largest in Ukraine, the private energy company DTEK, who believes that, regardless of the value of all these resources, Putin and his people, they are not particularly needed: "They are simply trying to destroy our economy." In fresh chronicles of hospitalism :

Gosinternet. "Very sensitive to any macroscience, especially political"

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