Translated material
The price of a “special operation” in Ukraine. Online August 29
The Bell continues to conduct online, dedicated to the economic consequences of the "special military operation" in Ukraine, which began on February 24
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20:31 Finnish Nokia and Swedish manufacturer of telecommunications equipment Ericsson curtail their activities in Russia until the end of the year, writes Reuters. Nokia had about 2 thousand employees in the country, Ericsson - only about 400, but the company's share in the Russian telecommunications equipment market is about 20%.
today that it is leaving the Russian market Logitech, a Swiss manufacturer of computer equipment, also announced . The company develops keyboards, mice and other peripherals for computers.
20:19 The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation confirmed the attempted offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kherson and Nikolaev regions, but stated that it "failed miserably": the loss of Ukrainian troops in manpower, according to the Russian side, amounted to more than 560 military personnel, and 26 Ukrainian tanks, 23 infantry fighting vehicles, two Su-25 attack aircraft were shot down.
UPD: The head of the joint press center of the Security and Defense Forces "South" of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Natalia Gumenyuk, on the air of Dozhd (recognized as a foreign agent) announced the breakthrough of the first line of Russian defense in the Kherson region.
19:00 The IAEA mission will arrive in Kiev today, representatives of the agency have already left Vienna, reports RBC Ukraine with reference to the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry. In the coming days, a delegation of 14 international experts headed by the director general of the organization will begin work at the Zaporozhye NPP. They will assess the physical protection of the station and the extent of the nuclear threat.
The pro-Russian authorities of Energodar today again accused the Armed Forces of Ukraine of attacking the ZNPP. The Ukrainian side denies the allegations and believes that the threat is posed by the actions of the Russian military.
17:43 The fall in GDP at the end of the year may be below 3%, and inflation will not exceed 13%, First Deputy Prime Minister Andrey Belousov believes. He gave such a forecast today at a meeting of the presidium of the government commission on improving the stability of the Russian economy in the face of sanctions. Belousov's estimates are more optimistic than those of the Ministry of Economic Development and the Central Bank .
What the Deputy Prime Minister predicts:
• “The decline in GDP will be less than 3% – somewhere around 2 percent and a little, next year there is every chance to limit the decline to 1% and get minus 0.6–0.8%,” Belousov . said The Ministry of Economic Development predicts a fall in GDP by 4.2% by the end of the current year, the Central Bank has laid down a fall of 4-6% in the base scenario (in the next the regulator expects minus 1-4%).
• Inflation in Russia at the end of the year, according to Belousov, will be at the level of 12-13%. The forecast of the Ministry of Economics includes 13.4%, the Central Bank - 12-15%.
• The decline in consumption in Russia in 2022 will be 4.2%, in 2023 consumption will grow by 2.5–3%, believes the Deputy Prime Minister . According to him, "we have already passed the peak of the decline in consumer demand."
16:38 The court appointed Zayakin a ban on certain actions.
16:15 Novaya Gazeta journalist and co-founder of Dissernet Andrey Zayakin was detained. He is accused under the article on financing extremist activities (Part 1 of Article 282.3 of the Criminal Code), reports Novaya Gazeta . Europe". The house of Zayakin was searched. The journalist spent the night in the temporary detention center on Petrovka, today he was brought to court to choose a measure of restraint. The investigation asks to appoint Zayakin a ban on certain actions.
The reason for initiating a criminal case was the transfer of 1,000 rubles to the Anti-Corruption Foundation (it was recognized as an extremist organization and a foreign agent, banned in Russia, and then liquidated). According to the sane article, the journalist faces up to eight years in prison.
14:52 Ukrainian media write about the beginning of a large counter-offensive in southern Ukraine. What is known so far:
- The official statement from the Ukrainian side comes from the head of the press center of the Defense Forces "South" Natalia Gumenyuk. According to her, "the Armed Forces of Ukraine launched offensive operations in various directions in the south, including in the Kherson region." Later, she clarified that a counteroffensive was being carried out, and a real military operation would “require silence” in a hybrid war.
- The breakthrough of the "first line of defense" near Kherson and the flight of the forces of the DPR and Russian paratroopers was reported on the page of the operational group of troops of the Armed Forces of Ukraine "Kakhovka". However, this was preceded by reports from the Russian Ministry of Defense about the successful assault of the Airborne Forces on the village of Blagodatnoye on the right bank of the Dnieper and advancing towards Nikolaev.
- According to Russian patriotic channels, we are talking about local attacks supported by artillery, the nature of which does not allow us to talk about a massive attack on Kherson.
- RIA Novosti reported a daytime missile strike by the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the area of the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station. The head of the pro-Russian administration of Nova Kakhovka announced the evacuation of workplaces in the face of ongoing air raids.
14:16 Shell CEO Ben van Beurden believes that the gas crisis in Europe, associated with a reduction in supplies from Russia, may last for several winters.
12:02 Turkey's foreign trade deficit rose to $10.7 billion in July, primarily due to rising energy prices, and in January-July it reached $62.2 billion, which is 2.5 times more than a year ago. In July, Russia became the main exporter for Turkey, the import of Russian energy resources in monetary terms almost doubled over the month (+95%) and reached $7.7 billion.
10:44 The news that Germany will reach the October goal of filling underground gas storage by 85% in September caused a drop in spot gas prices in Europe, writes Bloomberg. After rising 40% last week, month-ahead futures fell 16% to 286 euros per megawatt-hour ($3,000 per thousand cubic meters).
This is still a prohibitively high level for many industries that will have to buy gas now pumped in in winter. In the near future, neither reduced supplies from Russia, nor problems at gas fields in Norway, nor an increase in the price of LNG due to competition from Asian consumers will go anywhere.
The main thing for the night and morning:
- World central banks at the Jackson Hole summit gave an unambiguous signal : accelerating inflation is more dangerous than decelerating the economy, even a very painful one, that is, monetary policy easing can not be expected in the near future. The dollar strengthened on Monday, stocks and crypto assets fell.
- The transfer of flights from Vnukovo to Sheremetyevo to the parent Aeroflot will cost Pobeda 2 billion rubles in penalties, which is close to 40% of the company's net profit last year. There is no doubt in the industry that the reason is the obligation of the state-owned company to maintain passenger traffic at Sheremetyevo.
- Nokian, which produces 80% of its passenger tires in Russia, is waiting for proposals for a plant in Vsevolozhsk by the beginning of September, learned Kommersant . Two contenders are known - the structures of Tatneft with Nizhnekamskshina and the Aeon investment group of Roman Trotsenko, former adviser to Igor Sechin in Rosneft.
- The loan portfolio of microfinance organizations after the spring break grew faster than that of banks, according to a study by Expert RAO. According to the results of the first half of the year, the issuance of bank consumer loans decreased by more than 40%, and microloans increased by 25%.
- Against the background of the strengthening dollar, speculators increased rates against the euro : the number of shorts for the week increased by 5% to half the level observed in early March 2020, in the wake of the collapse of the eurozone economies.
- Container shipping prices, which are declining for Russia for the whole world, have returned to pandemic highs - above $10,000 per container from China.
- IAEA experts headed by the head of the agency Rafael Grossi left for the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant and should get to it this week.