Bloomberg: The Russian government presented a report on the impact of sanctions on the economy. Its authors predicted a recession until 2030

Russian officials and experts prepared a report for the Russian government that attempted to assess the impact of the sanctions imposed on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine. This is reported by Bloomberg, who studied a copy of the report.

On August 30, the report, which had been in preparation for several months, was presented at a closed meeting of high-ranking officials. The authenticity of the report to the agency was confirmed by sources familiar with the discussion.

Bloomberg writes that "the confidential report contrasts with upbeat public statements" by Russian officials. The document says that Russia could face a longer and deeper recession due to Western sanctions that threaten important sectors of the Russian economy.

Experts presented three scenarios for the development of the economy, and, according to two of them, the fall in GDP will accelerate in 2023, and the economy will return to pre-war levels only at the end of the decade or later. The “stress” scenario sees the economy bottom out in 2024 and fall by 11.9% compared to 2021. The “inertial” scenario assumes a maximum drop in GDP in 2023 by 8.3%. The third scenario, "target", predicts the recovery of the economy to pre-war levels in 2024.

All of the scenarios presented predict that sanctions pressure will intensify as more countries join the restrictive measures. Europe's abrupt withdrawal from Russian oil and gas could be a blow to the Kremlin, the report says.

The report details that Russia today is facing a "blockade" that "affects virtually every mode of transport." Technological and financial constraints add to the pressure. The authors of the report estimate that up to 200,000 IT professionals could leave the country by 2025, the first official forecast of a growing brain drain.

Bloomberg