“There is no panic” and Sobr surrounded. Ukraine went on an offensive to the city of Balakli, important for supplying the Russian army, the main thing

On the afternoon of September 6, pro -Russian military bloggers reported the APU attack on the Balakli seized in March in the Kharkov region, but at the same time assured that there was no panic in the city. However, the very next day they said that the Ukrainian troops were surrounded by fighters of the Sobr, who were on the forefront, and the Russian army did not have enough people to recapture the attack. Mediazona asked the researcher from Conflict Intelligence Team (CIT) to explain what is actually happening in the Kharkov direction and why control over the city is so important for both sides of the conflict.

"A bridgehead for the offensive and a large arsenal." Why Balaklia is important

Balaklia is located 84 kilometers from Kharkov, on the left bank of the Seversky Donets River. The city, in which more than 26 thousand people lived before the war, was taken under control by Russian troops back in March.

On September 6, pro -Russian military bloggers said that the Ukrainian army began a counterattack on the city. At the same time, the telegram channel “Veteran Zapiska” assured that in Balakley no panic, but “there is no speech about a deep breakthrough”. This post began to be actively distributed by other pro -Russian journalists and bloggers, it gained more than 1 million views. The next morning, the tone of the author of the telegram channel has changed markedly. “Do not wait for good news today,” he warned .

“Balaklai as such is important, because, firstly, it can potentially be used by Russians as a bridgehead for the onset and coverage of Kharkov from the south,” says Condlict Intelligence Team (CIT) Kirill Mikhailov. -Secondly, there is a large Ukrainian arsenal captured in the early days of the war. It is unlikely that they managed to take him out. ”

According to Mikhailov, it is now quite difficult to understand what is happening in this area, but judging by the reports of pro -Russian sources, Balakley is in an operational environment. In addition, Ukrainians probably released the center of Volokhov Yar and continue to move to the northeast in the direction of Shevchenkovo.

“There were shots who say that Ukrainians freed the recruitment north of Balakli. And now the pro -Russian channels claim that everything is very bad there and the fighters are allegedly, Samara, Bashkir, they are conducting an unequal battle, ”he notes.

"They will fight to the end." Sobr on the front line

The fact that the fighters of the SOBR participated in the battles in the Kharkov direction were also the first to report to the telegram channels. The authors of the Veteran Zapiska claim that "two combined detachments of the Russian Guard near Volokhov Yar have been fighting for more than a day in full environment." The Telegram channel “Operational Summers” clarified that the Samara and Bashkir detachments of the Sobr were surrounded, while the fighters from Samara “conveyed that they would fight to the end” and “do not plan to give up”.

On September 7, the Archangel Special Forces Telegram channel wrote that the Sobr employees got in touch: “Everything is fine,”. In the official telegram channel of the Russian Guard, they published a poem by Sergey Efimov about the “selflessness of the fighters of the Russian Guard”: “Fleets help as they can, / the god of war covers the squares, / Sobr beats and hits, thank God, / as it should, brother for his brother.”

“We assume that the [fighters of the Sobr] were either used to shut up the front, or for the occupation service, well, and suddenly ended up on the front line and were forced to accept the battle,” says Mikhailov. According to him, employees of such units are much less adapted to front -line operations. “Perhaps they were somehow preparing for city battles, although it is unlikely,” the researcher argues. - Nevertheless, they are still not such a serious enemy as Russian regular units, especially paratroopers, or a “Wagner group”. ”

"They blame that this threat was seen." Which preceded the offensive

Today, pro-Russian telegram channels began to actively criticize the Russian command due to the difficult situation in which the troops in the Kharkov region found themselves. So, the “Veteran Zapisks” complained about the lack of soldiers - “on paper, the staff was 100%filled, and in fact in the division of 45, a maximum of 50%” - and demanded to send “all gandons with a bloated state” to the defense of the Balaxysk.

Militaryor Yuri Kotenka wrote that “to fight the clock -turn,” and urged “to“ use the whole potential of the Russian state ”for the sake of victory. The Telegram channel of “Older than Edda” claimed that “amateurs-bloggers” repeatedly wrote about a possible attack: “Let's see what the Russian General Staff would answer and what level of operational art it will demonstrate.”

“Judging by what pro-Russian sources said, a few days before [the offensive] the Armed Forces of Ukraine really concentrated some forces (it is difficult to say which ones). Now the same channels are accusing the Russian command of the fact that this threat has been looked at, ”says Mikhailov. At the same time, he recalls, Ukrainian analyst Konstantin Mashovets wrote that the Russian command tried to prevent the Ukrainian offensive, but to no avail.

“It, in fact, at one time not only tried to prevent the active actions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the right flank of its Izyum group of troops and completely understood its“ weakness ”in this section of the front, but also sought to“ fundamentally ”solve this problem,” said Mashovets. “Another thing is that he did not succeed in him, because it never determined exactly where“ BO-BO ”would be-north of Balakli or south of her ... Well, it didn’t guess.”

The Russian army tried to stop the offensive of Ukrainians in the south, but the Armed Forces went on the attack from the north, Mikhailov said.

"Reflection of the Ukrainian attack instead of the offensive." What is the purpose of this attack

According to CIT analyst, the Ukrainian army may pursue several goals in this offensive. “Ideally, to move the Russian forces from the southeast of Kharkov. If everything goes well, then cut the supply of the Izyum direction, ”he says. - The city of Izum is a bridgehead for the attack on Slavyansk from the north. Accordingly, if you go to Kupyansk, then it is destroying the supply system for the entire Russian front in the north of Donbass. ”

Perhaps Mikhailov suggests, Ukrainians simply want to create an “additional tension” for the Russian command, which transferred a lot of forces to the south of Ukraine to the Kherson region and weakened the front in the Kharkiv region. In addition, the Armed Forces of Ukraine want to force the Russian command to use the reserves available in the East: the group of troops "Center", the third army corps and forces based in the city of Biryuch in the Belgorod region.

“All this may try to force us to use a Ukrainian attack instead of organizing his own offensive in the Donbass,” he says.

The General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Armed Forces has not yet been commented on the advance in the north. The Russian Ministry of Defense today also went around this topic, but reported on the "liberation" of the village of Codem in the Donetsk region.

Editor: Agatha Shcheglova