Translated material
The price of a “special operation” in Ukraine. Online September 8
The Bell continues to conduct online, dedicated to the economic consequences of the "special military operation" in Ukraine, which began on February 24
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16:55 At a closed meeting of the Russian government on August 30 (in addition to buying $70 billion in yuan and a pessimistic economic forecast ), a report was also discussed on the consequences of the gas and oil war with the EU for Russia itself, learned Reuters . Theses:
- A decrease in gas export supplies will unbalance the system that has developed for decades, when gas within the country was subsidized by foreign exchange earnings. This will entail a shortage of funds for the gasification of the regions;
- Europe's refusal of Russian gas will force Gazprom to halve its exports to last year's level, by 100 billion cubic meters. m by 2027. In this case, by 2030 the budget will receive less than 400 billion rubles in taxes per year;
- The underfunding of the investment program of the gas industry will reach $41 billion by 2030;
- The complete rejection of Russian oil by the EU by 2027 will provoke a drop in exports of petroleum products by 55% or 80 million tons compared to the level of 2021. Lack of access to Western technologies will lead to an irreversible drop in production with an increase in the cost of the remaining oil and a decrease in oil refining by 25-30%. This threatens with a shortage of fuel and rising prices in the domestic market;
- Technologically dependent LNG projects are especially vulnerable.
15:49 The British royal family gathers in the Scottish residence of Balmoral after reports of doctors about the "worrisome" deterioration in the health of 96-year-old Queen Elizabeth II. It was there (and not at Buckingham Palace) that the Queen approved the appointment of Liz Truss as prime minister this week.
All four of the Queen's children are reported to have arrived in Balmoral, including the heir apparent, the Queen's eldest son Prince Charles, Prince of Wales. Words of support were sent by Truss and Speaker of the House of Commons Lindsey Hoyle.
15:25 The ECB raised the base rate by 0.75 percentage points for the first time in history. up to 1.25%
The deposit rate for the first time in many years became positive (0.75%). In July, the ECB raised it by 0.5 percentage points. down to zero. Unlike the July decision, this move was predictable and had little impact on the euro. The ECB lowered its growth forecast for the EU economy in 2023 (to 0.9% from 2.1%), raised its inflation forecast (from 3.5% to 5.5%) and did not rule out further rate hikes.
“Rising borrowing costs are unlikely to dampen the energy price hike behind EU inflation to 9.1% in August, and prices are likely to rise further after Russia shuts down transit through a key gas pipeline. The problem is that inflation expectations without a decisive increase in rates can get out of hand, and it will become increasingly difficult to raise rates as the European economy slows down, ”Bloomberg outlines the regulator’s dilemma.
15:13 Poland will join the ban of the Baltic countries on the entry of Russians on tourist Schengen visas, follows from its joint statement with the Baltic countries. This means that it will not be possible to enter the EU "by land" through the Kaliningrad region bordering Poland.
14:11 Elvira Nabiullina on compensation to investors with frozen assets
To restore investor confidence, it is necessary to come up with a solution to the problem of frozen assets of Russian investors, the chairman of the Central Bank said at the Moscow Financial Forum. According to her, the creation of a fund with the participation of the DIA is being discussed, which would make it possible to compensate for the losses of Russian private investors. One of the options is to use income from non-residents' funds, which were frozen by the Central Bank, to compensate for the losses of Russian private investors who suffered from the freezing of foreign shares.
13:14 Siluanov, Oreshkin, Nabiullina, Kudrin, Kostin and Mishustin told what the concept of "financial sovereignty" means to them. This is the theme of the plenary session of the Moscow Financial Forum that started today.
Anton Siluanov: Financial sovereignty means living within your means and not walking around with outstretched hands. This is a stable, balanced budget, the confidence of financial market participants, and our own payment infrastructure.
Maxim Oreshkin: This is the ability to achieve goals in politics and the economy without the help of external factors. Three elements of financial sovereignty: the market in the national currency, tools, management system.
Elvira Nabiullina: Financial sovereignty is the ability to pursue an independent policy. An important element is resistance to external shocks.
Alexei Kudrin: This is the creation of development institutions that allow decisions to be made without the need to resort to external forces. Sovereignty can be sacrificed when joining international organizations.
Andrey Kostin: We have financial independence, but no financial sovereignty. The difference at the household level is this: if a man receives a large salary, he is considered financially independent, but if he cannot spend a penny without the permission of his wife, he does not have financial sovereignty.
Mikhail Mishustin: Financial sovereignty is not about isolation, but about security and stability.
12:53 Estonia closes entry to Russians with Schengen visas issued by other EU countries from September 19. According to the minister of foreign affairs of the republic, Urmas Reinsalu, other Baltic states will do the same.
12:32 The deal to join SMP Bank, controlled by the Rotenberg family, to defense Promsvyazbank is at the stage of assessing the asset and developing a mechanism, told RBC. Deputy Finance Minister Alexei Moiseev
about in June wrote This is the first official confirmation of the merger of the two sanctioned banks, which Kommersant . With SMP Bank, Promsvyazbank receives capital and a ready-made bank of bad assets in the form of a sanitized Mosoblbank. On the part of the sellers of SMP-Bank, the experts of the publication saw rather a cash out.
12:12 This morning, more than a dozen journalists and activists were searched in several regions of Russia.
RIA Novosti publishes a video of the penetration of security forces into apartments and writes that the investigative measures affected the administrators of channels in Telegram and YouTube, owned by ex-State Duma deputy Ilya Ponomarev.
Ponomarev, who left for Ukraine, was arrested in absentia in the case of fakes against the Russian Armed Forces. After the death of the daughter of the ideologist of the "Russian world" Alexander Dugin, Daria Ponomarev stated that the explosion of her car was allegedly organized by the "National Republican Army", with which he cooperates. So far, searches are known:
- In Yekaterinburg, at the editor-in-chief of the Vecherniye Vedomosti Vladislav Postnikov, he was interrogated in the Ponomarev case as a witness;
- In Rostov-on-Don, journalist Bella Nasibyan has information about her detention;
- from the editor of Tyumen-Pro and the correspondent of Sibir.Realii (recognized as a foreign agent) Yulia Glazova In Tyumen, equipment was confiscated ;
- In the Moscow region, with employees and the director of the Odintsovo-INFO portal, administrators of the Legion of Freedom of Russia Telegram channel, the Orlets channel, Viktor Zaryanov, and an employee of the CenterRus agency, Sergei Nosov;
- The administrators of Ponomarev's anti-war project "February Morning", with which most of the above are allegedly connected.
09:39 Lloyd's of London estimated its insurance payments in connection with the conflict in Ukraine at 1.25 billion pounds. The most significant components of this amount are aircraft downtime, cargo delays and bad debts. Across the insurance industry, payouts could reach £10-15bn, a notable but far from critical hit for the market.
09:16 A blackout in Belgorod, as a result of which a significant part of the city lost not only electricity, but also water supply at night, was the result of an accident at the Yuzhnaya substation, said Mayor Anton Ivanov . Deputy Governor of the region Konstantin Polezhaev specified that there was a short circuit at the substation, the consequences are being eliminated.
What caused the short circuit is not yet clear. From local residents, information was received about explosions at Yuzhnaya, but it is possible that they were mistaken for the sounds of a short circuit of high-voltage lines. In early July, Belgorod was attacked by a Tochka-U missile of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, four people were killed.
09:10 Bloomberg, according to budget documents, confirmed the delivery of M982 Excalibur precision-guided projectiles for 155-mm howitzers to Ukraine. Sending modern weapons to the Armed Forces of Ukraine without an official announcement is becoming the rule of US military assistance: Excalibur shipping containers have already been seen in photographs from combat areas. The projectile has a range of up to 40 km and a declared circular probable deviation of only 4 m. Each one costs about $100,000, the amount of purchases suggests that Ukraine already has several hundred of them.
Today, the United States will announce another $675 million aid package.
The main thing for the night and morning:
- The largest grocery chain in Crimea, PUD (“Products at Home”), associated with the structures of the former head of the Ministry of Agriculture Alexander Tkachev, plans to start working in the Kherson and Zaporozhye regions, learned Kommersant . PUD is looking for managers to select premises in these regions. According to the source of the publication, the company may open stores there under a different brand. Experts call the entry of PUD into the virtually empty market of Kherson and Zaporozhye regions as logical, given the limited potential of the Crimean market, the presence of its own agricultural enterprises and well-organized logistics. But in these territories, which have come under the control of Russia, hostilities continue.
- Hungary temporarily abandoned its demand for the EU to lift sanctions on three Russian oligarchs, Politico reports , citing sources. The day before, the publication wrote that Budapest is demanding that Alisher Usmanov, Petr Aven and Viktor Rashnikov be removed from the sanctions list in exchange for the extension of other EU restrictions. But, according to Politico, the Czech presidency of the EU agreed with Hungary to postpone this issue until the next extension of sanctions. In September, the extension of restrictions should now pass without problems.
- Alrosa, which has been sanctioned, is going to bring investment diamonds to the market, VAT on the purchase of which will be canceled from October 1, writes Kommersant . The company wants to offer two products - rare large diamonds worth $50,000 or more with an individual price, as well as "diamond baskets" worth $25,000 - 50,000, which are a cross-section of the company's production and will have a single price per carat. Alrosa will also provide storage services for these diamonds. Analysts say diamonds have the advantage of relatively low price volatility and medium-term upside potential.
- The Ministry of Finance proposed to transfer the pension savings of citizens to their property, found out Vedomosti . We are talking about savings that have been frozen since 2014, now they are managed by the PFR or NPF. According to the publication, the proposal to "privatize" the pension savings of citizens (in this wording) was included in the joint presentation of the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank, presented by Anton Siluanov and Elvira Nabiullina at a government meeting on August 30. It is proposed to give citizens who have pension savings the right to invest them of their choice, albeit subject to certain criteria, the source explained.
- China is increasing the purchase of Russian raw materials, but not the supply of equipment, according to the data of the Bureau of Customs Statistics of the PRC, cited by Kommersant. In eight months of 2022, Russian exports to China grew by 50% (to $72.9 billion), while imports from this country grew by only 8.5% (to $44.2 billion). As a result, the trade surplus with China quadrupled over the year, mainly due to Russia's increased supplies of raw materials and energy. Judging by the speech of the PRC representative at the Eastern Economic Forum, Russia should not expect an acceleration of counter deliveries of Chinese equipment needed by the Russian Federation for import substitution.