Until the new Putin comes. What will the sunset of Russia look like and how much it will last

The state of the Russian Federation lost the war he had begun. The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation are still resting in the north and south of Ukraine, but the collapse on one or another section of the front is inevitable. In the rapid waste of Russian troops from Balaklia, it is clear that they are no longer fighting for victory, but in order to avoid or delay the moment of public shame - that is, the environment of large military formations. Even the idea to go into a deaf defense in the “Svo” mode, protecting the forces taken away from Ukraine and means that are already mobilized to the front, today does not look realistic.

I already wrote a few weeks ago that nuclear blackmail, or even the use of tactical nuclear weapons are not a fantasy. At some point, it can become a condition for political survival, since mobilization is impossible, and there are less and less ordinary weapons. And the blow with tactical nuclear weapons or the threat of such a blow may be required to avoid a retreat from the Donetsk region, battles in the Crimea or other events of about this order.

The state, which could be the first to use nuclear weapons in the 21st century, was successfully in three things: political technologies and promotion, accumulation and financial management of oil rents, corruption. It definitely does not know how to seriously and efficiently fight, at least now. And, it seems, he does not know how to engage in mass repressions, for example, in the sense of the Belarusian surroundings.

Will it be able to live like a large North Korea?

The political regime is determined in different ways, but, in general form, it is a set of rules for the departure of the supreme power, influence on this power and the arbitration that it exercises. The main question, therefore, is that these rules will change, and if so, how exactly?

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