Translated material
The cost of war in Ukraine. Online September 13
The Bell continues to conduct online, dedicated to the economic consequences of the war in Ukraine, which began on February 24
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20:43 Leonid Gozman (recognized as a foreign agent by the media) was detained at the exit from the detention center, where he served 15 days of arrest. The politician was taken to the Tverskoye police department, he was detained under the article on the public identification of the USSR and Nazi Germany (part 2 of article 13.48 of the Code of Administrative Offenses) for a 2013 post in LiveJournal (he had previously been arrested under the same article), said " New newspaper. Europe" lawyer Mikhail Biryukov. The court will consider the case tomorrow, Gozman must stay overnight at the police department.
20:15 Kommersant published details from the concept of state policy for the development of microelectronics, which was prepared by the Ministry of Industry and Trade. The main conclusion is that the industry in Russia has big problems. So, for example, the text says that Russian microelectronics is 10-15 years behind the world, it lacks production capacity, it is critically dependent on foreign technologies, and it has an acute shortage of personnel. To change this, the concept proposes, among other things, to create profile engineering from scratch.
In the modern world, no country can make a completely closed semiconductor production cycle, told Denis Shamiryan, a veteran of the microelectronics market, The Bell in April. It will take decades to build all the equipment necessary for the production of microelectronics from scratch, it will cost tens of billions of dollars and will never pay off on a countrywide scale, the specialist explained.
19:48 Olaf Scholz phoned Vladimir Putin, according to the website of the German government.
- The chancellor urged "to find a diplomatic solution as soon as possible, based on a ceasefire, the complete withdrawal of Russian troops, as well as respect for the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine."
- Any further Russian moves towards annexation will not go unanswered and will not be recognized under any circumstances.
- The ICRC must have unhindered access to captured combatants.
- Any escalation [of hostilities] around the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant must be prevented, and the recommendations of the IAEA must be respected.
- Scholz stressed that the "grain" deal played an important role in resolving the food crisis, and also called on Putin "not to discredit the agreement" and "implement it [the conditions] in full."
The conversation lasted an hour and a half. Scholz became the second European leader with whom Putin held telephone conversations, after the successful offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine near Kharkov. On Sunday, September 11, phoned Macron the Russian president. The main topic of discussion was the safety of the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant: Macron, in particular, called on Moscow to withdraw heavy and light weapons from the station and comply with the recommendations of the IAEA.
The Kremlin has not yet given the details of the conversation with Scholz, but announced Putin's talks with Xi Jinping and Erdogan. On the agenda with the Chinese leader are bilateral cooperation, international topics and the situation around Ukraine; with Turkish - economic issues and the "grain" deal.
16:33 Inflation in the US in August almost did not decrease in annual terms - 8.3% after 8.5% in July, and in monthly terms increased by 0.1%. Worse, core inflation has risen 0.6% since July and 6.3% yoy. All these indicators are higher than the forecast, writes Bloomberg, which practically guarantees a new Fed rate hike by another 0.75 percentage points.
Inflation data has already sent markets down, with the S&P 500 down 2% after opening, the Nasdaq 100 down 2.7%, and the European Stoxx 600 down 1.1%.
14:43 The Office of the President of Ukraine published recommendations on external guarantees of the country's security (the "Kiev Security Treaty"), drawn up on behalf of President Volodymyr Zelensky with the participation of representatives of the guarantor countries. Main:
- Guarantees should be multi-level: the military will be given by a limited group of countries (EU, USA, Britain, Australia and Turkey), they and other partners will provide long-term assistance, economic preferences to Ukraine and sanctions mechanisms against Russia;
- Guarantees apply to Ukraine within internationally recognized borders;
- The guarantees are not a substitute for Ukraine's entry into NATO, but serve as a security measure before joining the alliance;
- The treaty does not oblige Ukraine to limit the size of its armed forces;
- Sanctions must be maintained as long as Russia continues to threaten Ukraine's security;
- A package of sanctions “in the event of a new attack and aggression” is agreed in advance, which should not be weaker than the current one.
The presentation of the document in Kyiv was attended by the head of the Office of the President of Ukraine Andriy Yermak and former NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen.
13:45 The leader of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation Gennady Zyuganov today in the State Duma at the opening of the spring session called for the economic mobilization of the country - and also to stop calling the war (which Russia, in his opinion, “announced by NATO and the Americans”) a “special operation”.
“War and special operation are fundamentally different. Announced a special operation? You can stop [it]. You cannot stop the war, even if you want to, you have to go to the end. She has two outcomes - either victory or defeat. The issue of victory in the Donbass is the issue of our historical survival.”
Zyuganov made similar statements before, the last time about “a real and major war, in fact, with the entire wolf NATO group.”
13:06 Dmitry Peskov, in response to a question about criticism of the Ministry of Defense in the light of recent events, admitted that public opinion "reacts very, very emotionally," but the Russians continue to support the president.
“As for other, critical points of view, as long as they remain within the framework of the current legislation, this is pluralism. But the line is very, very thin. You have to be very careful here,” Putin’s spokesman warned.
12:55 Western media publish assessments of the results, consequences and prospects of the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine near Kharkov, including referring to the information of officials, representatives of special services and military experts.
- Whether the Ukrainian Armed Forces hold on to what they've won depends on Russia's response, especially whether Vladimir Putin calls for mobilization and throws limited reserves into battle;
- The use of nuclear or chemical weapons by Russia is unlikely;
- Russia still has the forces and means for a large-scale counteroffensive, it is too early to talk about the complete interception of the strategic initiative by Kiev;
- Of greater strategic importance than the offensive near Kharkov would be a decisive advance near Kherson and Mariupol.
- Despite the loss of hard-won positions near Kharkov by the Russian Armed Forces, Ukraine faces a tough struggle. The general forecast for the development of hostilities has not changed much.
- The prospects depend on how Russia will respond in the conditions of the beginning shortage of manpower and military supplies. Most experts see a continuation of the conflict in 2023 after the winter lull, unless an (unlikely) political decision is made to withdraw Russian troops. Some no longer exclude either a lightning-fast collapse of the front, or active hostilities in the winter.
11:46 The emergency energy plan of the European Commission, which EU ministers rejected last week, has been revised and will not include a ceiling on Russian gas prices, writes Bloomberg. But it takes a step towards the mandatory limitation of consumption. Main:
- The two consumption reduction targets are to limit both total (by 10%) and peak (another 5%) consumption. "Peak" restrictions will apply 3-4 hours a day and, possibly, during the hours of minimum production at solar and wind farms.
- Temporary emergency windfall tax on energy companies. The EU will set a minimum rate, the members of the union will have the opportunity to increase it. The tax base will be calculated from the difference between pre-tax profit in 2022 and the average profit for 2019-2021.
- Price ceiling for electricity alternative to gas generation. It will have to give companies the opportunity to make a profit and finance the investment program, so it will be quite high: 180-200 euros per megawatt-hour.
Financial support for energy companies at the EU level is included in a separate document. So far, it is provided by individual countries: Germany, for example, will provide collateral for loans of 67 billion euros. Spot gas in Europe on September 13 cost 185 euros per megawatt-hour, less than $2,000 per thousand cubic meters.
11:29 Mishustin instructed the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank, together with Rosfinmonitoring, the Federal Tax Service and the FSB, to develop a unified position on cryptocurrencies, their circulation in Russia, their use in foreign settlements and mining by December 19.
Last week, the Central Bank allowed the legalization of cross-border transactions in cryptocurrencies. According to the regulator, this issue is now being worked out jointly with the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Economy. At the same time, the Central Bank still opposes the legalization of cryptocurrency as a means of payment in Russia, as well as against the legalization of crypto exchanges and crypto exchangers within the country.
Earlier, the Central Bank advocated a complete ban on cryptocurrencies in Russia. The Ministry of Finance believes that they should be legalized, but subject to strict regulation.
11:13 Armenia and Azerbaijan, mediated by Russia, reached an agreement on a ceasefire from 9:00 Moscow time, said the Russian Foreign Ministry . They expressed extreme concern over the sharp aggravation of the situation in certain areas of the Armenian-Azerbaijani border, and also called on the parties to refrain from further escalation of the situation and exercise restraint.
10:46 Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said that at least 49 Armenian soldiers were killed during the night aggravation on the border with Azerbaijan.
The main thing for the night and morning:
- Ukraine has asked the US for ATACMS missiles with a range of up to 300 km, which Washington has so far refused to supply. The decision of the US administration may be affected by the success of the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine near Kharkov.
- At night, the situation on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border sharply escalated with dead and wounded on both sides. The parties blame each other, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan called Putin, Macron and Blinken, the Armenian Security Council decided to officially appeal to Russia, the CSTO and the UN Security Council. It seems that by morning the parties agreed to a ceasefire.
- Russia will offer to extend the duty-free threshold in foreign online stores at the level of 1,000 euros until July 2023, learned Vedomosti . Before April 1, it was 200 euros, but it was raised five times before October 1 as an anti-crisis measure. Given the limitations of international payment systems and logistics, this will mainly benefit large marketplaces with well-established supply chains.
- Rosstat is going to take into account non-cash transfers and bonus programs when calculating the expenses of Russians, and operations on the stock market when calculating savings. The Central Bank pointed out the underestimation of investments in the stock market more than once - the transfer of money to brokerage accounts was reflected by Rosstat as a decrease in “other” income. Perhaps this will help raise the estimated income of the population.
- In the first half of the year, business foreign currency deposits at Sberbank fell 17 times, , told Anatoly Popov, deputy chairman of the bank's board RBC. The bank that fell under the sanctions is reorienting itself to “soft” foreign currencies, primarily the yuan and the rupee.