Translated material
The cost of war in Ukraine. Online September 30
The Bell continues to conduct online, dedicated to the economic consequences of the war in Ukraine, which began on February 24.
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20:31 Arson of military registration and enlistment offices are regarded as acts of terrorism and are punishable by imprisonment up to 15 years, the General Staff said . They noted that people commit illegal actions against employees of military registration and enlistment offices "under the influence of negative emotions." The spring conscription has already taken place in the context of "extremist actions", including arson of military registration and enlistment offices and intimidation of conscripts, the General Staff added.
Today, Putin signed a decree on the autumn conscription, it is postponed to November 1. 120 thousand people are subject to the call.
19:38 A new federal district will be created from the annexed territories, the name is still being discussed, said the head of Zaporozhye . Earlier, Vedomosti wrote that it would be the “Crimean Federal District” (the peninsula would also be included there), with Rogozin appointed as its plenipotentiary.
19:24 Stoltenberg: Now we cannot accept Ukraine into NATO, this decision is made through a meeting of 30 partner countries.
Earlier today, Zelenskiy announced that on Friday he would sign a formal application for Ukraine's accession to NATO.
What else did the NATO Secretary General say:
- The alliance condemns the annexation of Ukrainian territory by Russia, but is not a party to the conflict.
- NATO will continue to support Ukraine after the entry of the DPR, LPR, Kherson and Zaporozhye regions into the Russian Federation.
- If Russia stops fighting, there will be no war; if Ukraine stops fighting, there will be no Ukraine.
18:56 What will happen to the Russian economy
Mobilization, internationally unrecognized referendums, and the annexation of the DPR, LPR, and Kherson and Zaporozhye regions have further increased uncertainty about the prospects for the Russian economy. The scale of the mobilization and brain drain is not completely clear, and the West is already preparing for new sanctions. , about what economic consequences await us . We talked with Dmitry Polev, Investment Director of Loko-Invest Management Company
17:33 The United States announced new sanctions against Russia. The US sanctions list also includes Nabiullina, as well as Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, family members of Dmitry Medvedev, Mikhail Mishustin, Sergei Sobyanin and other officials. The Federation Council is included in the sanctions list in its entirety.
17:27 Great Britain imposed sanctions against Elvira Nabiullina.
17:04 Volodymyr Zelensky announced that today he will sign an official application for Ukraine's accession to NATO.
16:38 After Putin's speech, which did not bring absolutely terrible news, the dollar and euro rates quickly returned to their previous levels (and even higher). The dollar rose from 52 rubles to 57.5, the euro - from 51.5 to 56. Experts explain the morning strengthening of the ruble by the fact that the market is waiting for new sanctions.
16:34 NBC: The US will announce new sanctions against Russia after the annexation of four regions of Ukraine.
16:11 The first assessment of Putin's speech by Western observers is not even anti-Ukrainian, but the most anti-Western speech of his entire time in power, addressed to Europe, the United States and their allies. At the same time, he did not say a word about the prospects for the use of nuclear weapons, mentioning them only in connection with their use by the United States.
15:55 “The battlefield, to which fate and history called, is the battlefield for our people, for great historical Russia ... Today we need the consolidation of the whole society. Our values are philanthropy, mercy, compassion... Truth is behind us, Russia is behind us,” Putin concluded his speech. The ceremony of signing documents on the entry of the DPR, LPR, Kherson and Zaporozhye regions into Russia has begun.
15:42 Putin directly accused the "Anglo-Saxons" of the Nord Stream explosions: "The Anglo-Saxons are no longer satisfied with sanctions, they have already switched to sabotage."
15:18 Putin's address to the Russians began:
- The President began by saying that he was sure that the accession of the four regions would be supported by the Federation Council, because this is "the will of millions of people." At the same time, he referred to the first article of the UN Charter on self-determination.
- The “Kyiv regime” must respect the will of the people. He must cease fire immediately and return to the negotiating table. “But we will not discuss the choice of the people, it has been made, Russia will not betray the people.” This means that Russia's negotiating position will be four regions in its composition.
- Russia will defend its land with all its might and means.
- “They [the West] don’t need Russia at all – we need it.” According to the rigged rules, Russia will not live.
- "The United States is still the only country to have used nuclear weapons."
13:38 The words of the head of the Foreign Intelligence Service, Sergei Naryshkin, about the intelligence evidence of a “Western trace” in sabotage on the Nord Stream gas pipelines, at the moment lowered Gazprom’s quotes by 16%. Even the positive news about the approval by the meeting of shareholders of record interim dividends (1.2 trillion rubles) did not help.
Naryshkin did not give details, saying only that "the West is doing everything to hide the true perpetrators and organizers of this international terrorist act," the quotes quickly rebounded.
13:07 The dollar, meanwhile, broke down the mark of 54 rubles, the euro - 52 rubles.
12:50 The meeting of shareholders of Gazprom approved the payment of the first interim dividends in its history - for the first half of 2022. 51.03 rubles will be paid per share, in total this is half of the net profit - 1.208 trillion rubles.
12:14 Dmitry Peskov said that Moscow will perceive Ukraine's strikes on new territories as an act of aggression against Russia: "it will not be anything else." At the same time, the Kremlin does not want to develop the topic of "nuclear escalation" and urges everyone to behave responsibly, he said.
11:56 Norway closes the last "window" for the departure of Russians to Europe on tourist visas. Restrictions similar to those introduced by Finland are already being prepared by the country's Ministry of Justice, but the ministry will study Finnish experience before making a decision. It will not be difficult to close legal entry: there is exactly one Storskog border checkpoint on the border between Russia and Norway.
11:10 The euro exchange rate on the Moscow Exchange for the first time since 2014 briefly fell below 52 rubles - a fall of about 5%. The dollar fell by almost 3% and by 11:15 Moscow time was trading below 56 rubles. The strengthening of the ruble by the end of the month, as a rule, is associated with the payment of taxes by the main exporters, however, such a discrepancy between the dynamics of the dollar and the euro usually does not happen. On world markets, the euro strengthened weakly against the dollar.
This week The Wall Street Journal wrote that the US and the EU are preparing new sanctions against Russia. The main objects are financial market structures: the Deposit Insurance Agency (DIA), the Mir payment system, the National Clearing Center (NCC) and the National Settlement Depository (NSD). Financial settlements between investors are carried out through the NCC; in case of sanctions, its foreign currency accounts in foreign banks will be blocked.
10:39 Anatoly Aksakov, co-author of the draft law on writing off loans to those who died during the "special operation", called the Ministry of Finance's assessment of banks' losses from this initiative: no more than 1-2% of net profit. This year, the Russian banking system will obviously face losses , so the calculation base can be considered 2 trillion rubles - the average net profit for the disastrous 2020 and the record 2021. This gives up to 40 billion rubles of net write-offs.
To estimate “from below” the number of written-off loans to the dead, which the Ministry of Finance is counting on, is based on data on the average mortgage size in Russia - 4 million rubles. This gives a figure of 10 thousand.
The main thing for the night and morning:
- Russian business continues to fight for reservations from mobilization, but many companies have taken a wait-and-see attitude , and actively using internal resources in the interests of workers are a minority.
- The day of the official acceptance of the occupied regions into Russia can become a day of military crisis, not much inferior to the capture of Izyum by the Armed Forces of Ukraine. At night, military bloggers reported that the key Liman had been taken into the cauldron. The development of the offensive makes the defense of the Russian Armed Forces along the Oskol River meaningless and brings the Ukrainian Armed Forces to the borders of the LPR.
- In Asian deals today, the pound sterling traded again at the level of a week ago, before the drastic tax cut plan, depriving the budget of 45 billion pounds a year, had yet been unveiled. In the interim, the British currency managed to rush to parity with the dollar, fall almost 10% to an all-time low of $1.0350 and bounce back to $1.12 after the Bank of England announced unlimited purchases of government bonds.
- The Finnish Border Service has published a list of "humanitarian" exceptions, according to which it is allowed to cross the border, which has been closed for Russian tourists since today. There are no clarifications regarding the possible annulment of visas yet.
- Meta (recognized as an extremist organization in Russia) for the first time since the founding of Facebook in 2004, cuts staff and budget. Meta's capitalization has fallen by 60% this year (the worst result in big tech), Alphabet and Twitter have frozen the hiring of new employees before it.
- Aluminum continues to rise in price after the London Metal Exchange asked market participants about the possibility of stopping the acceptance of new metal of Russian origin. The spring price peaks are still far away.