Why was the Liman not surrendered by Russian generals, but personally Colonel Putin, and how soon the army of the Russian Federation will be expelled from all important points - analysis from Yuri Fedorov

On October 1, immediately after Vladimir Putin signed agreements on the adoption of the occupied territories of Ukraine to Russia, the Armed Forces of Ukraine was released Liman. At about 17 hours Moscow time, the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation reluctantly reported: “In connection with the creation of the threat of encirclement, the allied troops were allocated from the village of Krasny Liman (in Russia they use the old Soviet name of this city - the author’s approaches) for more profitable borders.”

In fact, the fate of Russian soldiers and officers who were in this city (according to Ukrainian data, there were from 3 to 6 thousand) is unclear. Perhaps some part of them really was able to get out of the environment, but many, most likely, either died or were captured. Ukraine won comparable to the liberation of the Kharkov region and the liquidation of the Izuyum group of the Armed Forces of Russia. The Armed Forces of Ukraine were able to reach the operational scope in the adjacent areas of the Lugansk region. The question was acutely the question: how to react to another severe defeat on the battlefield?

The battle for the estuary

The battle for the estuary is sometimes called the final chord of the Izum-Khuyansk operation. There is a certain reason in this: indeed, a certain stage has ended in the attack of Ukrainian troops that began on September 5. In the coming days, they can take a respite to make up for losses, if necessary, to be reorganized, to prepare for the new tour of the hostilities. It is more likely, however, that the pace of their offensive will be preserved in order not to give the enemy the opportunity to gain a foothold on the new lines of defense.

By the end of March, the Armed Forces of the Armed Forces were able to squeeze out Russian troops from the Kyiv, Chernihiv and Sumy regions, and the immediate threat was eliminated to Kyiv. However, until the middle of summer, the war with Russia took shape for Ukraine as a whole unsuccessfully. Significant territories were lost in the south, almost the entire Lugansk and about half of the Kharkov region. April 1 fell raisins, and at the end of May - the estuary. There was a real threat of the encirclement of Ukrainian troops, operating east of the Liman-Bakhmut line, an opening road for the attack on Slavyansk and Kramatorsk opened.

In early September, the situation in eastern Ukraine began to change. The Russian defense near Balakliy was broken, and the Armed Forces of Ukraine were liberated almost the Kharkov region in a week, Kupyansk and raisins were taken. In parallel, Ukrainian troops were activated in the Liman direction. Seversky Donets was crossed, several important settlements were occupied, and on September 9, the Ukrainian advanced units reached Liman suburbs.

On September 10, an offensive on this small but important city was launched, but attempts to storm it “in the forehead” were unsuccessful. In case of their continuation, the Armed Forces of Ukraine could bear very heavy losses. The followed decision of the Ukrainian command was the only possible: bypass the entire Limansky fortified area from the north-west and southwestern directions, cut the supply paths, transfer ammunition and reinforcements there. No sooner said than done.

In the early 20th of September, on the northern section of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the settlements of Korovius Yar and Redkodub occupied the settlements of the Armed Forces, and Drobyshevo took on September 29-30. In the south, Yampol was released from the invaders in the same days. From this moment, the fate of Liman was decided. It remained to close the encirclement in the Zarechny-Torsky area, where there is a transport hub through which highways connecting the estuary with Russia occupied by Russia.

By the evening of Sunday, October 2, the Armed Forces of Ukraine took Torskoye and finally cut the road passing through it. However, the outcome of the battle for the estuary was clear on September 30. And a day later, on October 1, Moscow gave an order to evacuate its troops and the transition to “more profitable borders”. Where the latter pass, it is not clear. Some sources argue that those troops that were able to withdraw from the encirclement concentrate 30 kilometers from the estuary in the Kremennaya area covering the agglomeration of the Rubezhnoye-Severodonetsk-Lisichansk from the north-west.

Speakingly emphasized in the British Ministry of Defense, the significance of the estuary is determined by the fact that he controls key communications crossing the Seversky Donets and used by Russia "to consolidate its defense." It can be added to this that with its capture of the Armed Forces, they received an exit to the operational scope in the northern part of the Luhansk region , captured by Russia in the spring of 2022.

Search for a scapegoat

As soon as the prospect of the fall of the estuary was indicated, the search for the perpetrators began in Russia. Naturally, the military leadership was chosen in the role of the scapegoat. So, the former deputy commander of the troops of the Southern Military District, now a member of the State Duma from United Russia, General Andrei Gurulev said:

“From the point of view of the military, I cannot explain the change of estuary. It was not a fleeting battle. It is not clear to me why the situation was not appreciated for all the time, they did not intensify the group. The problem is in the general lies, the report of the "good atmosphere." This system goes from top to bottom. ”

Guryleva was also interested in the question “where did 1.5 million sets [form], which were stored at points of receiving personnel. Today we have problems with form, then with something. It was all, where did it evaporate? No one can explain anything anywhere! " The last question, however, is clearly rhetorical. A senior general cannot but know where the military uniform could disappear - it was stolen and sold.

Ramzan Kadyrov did not fail to blame the commander of the Central Military District and, at the same time, leading the General Alexander Lapin, a group of troops operating in eastern Ukraine, called him a “bottomless” and suggested using tactical nuclear weapons. According to Kadyrov, the General Staff, covering Lapin, is also to blame for the defeat of the Russian troops. In turn, the so-called “military commissar”, employees of the state media or authors of their own telegram channels, regularly at the front and usually reflecting the point of view of certain groups of the generals, stood up for Lapina. It is wrong to blame him for the withdrawal of troops from the estuary, in particular, a fisherman’s telegram channel, which was very authoritative in militaristic circles. “You won’t jump above your head,” the author sadly stated and added that the troops of the Western Military District simply “turned out to be not warhead, with the exception of the 20 combined arms army.” The latter, however, could not correct the situation.

There is no doubt that the Russian generals are not distinguished by powerful intelligence or high professional qualities. It is also clear that military leaders are afraid to upset Putin with bad news and as soon as they can embellish the situation on the fronts. But the matter is far from only and not so much in this. The campaign of accusations of the highest commanding staff that has begun in Russia is called upon to hide the fact that Vladimir Putin is most responsible for the failure of the Russian army in the east of Ukraine. After all, it was he who in the middle of summer ordered to send all the cash and the prepared reserves to the Kherson region and near Donetsk and categorically forbade them to transfer them from there first to Kharkovshchina, and then near the estuary. As a result, the Russian army was left in these areas without reserves and was doomed to defeat. And, finally, a series of defeats in the East first posed in a practical plane the question of responsibility for a war that Russia cannot win and, most likely, will lose. Two options, in fact, are: either the highest nomenclature and the military in the name of saving the regime will accuse Putin of unleashing war, which is obviously impossible to win, or Putin will accuse the general of the fact that they lost the war because of their incompetence or even betrayal. The consequences of both options are clear.

What's next

The clarification of the relationship between Putin and the generals is inevitable, but most likely it will stretch for several months. During this time, much can happen. The capture of the estuary allows Ukrainian troops to advance in two main directions. The first is on Svatovo , an important transport hub, where several highways intersect, along which Russian troops are supplied in the occupied territories of Donetsk and Lugansk regions. During the offensive, the Armed Forces of Ukraine can cut the road Svatovo - Kremennaya and eliminate Russian strongholds along it. In the area of ​​Svatovo, the advancing Ukrainian units can meet with the forces moving towards them from Kupyansk and, if this city was liberated, start an attack on Starobelsk . Another direction of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the coming weeks is an attack on Kremennaya , a city covering the Rubezhnoye-Sevelerodonsk-Lisichansk in June in June from the north-west.

It is difficult to talk about the results of such actions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, but if they turn out to be successful, Russia's positions in the entire northern part of the Luhansk region are undermined. The factor of time is very important: for the assault on Svatovo, Starobelsk and Kremenny, the Ukrainian army has 4-5 weeks, since already in the first decade of November we can expect the beginning of autumn gap, during which the intensity of the military operations of the Ground Forces is seriously declining. It is not necessary to expect Moscow to transfer to the Lugansk region any significant forces from the Kherson and Zaporizhzhya regions or from the Donetsk direction. In this case, defense will be weakened.

The nature of the possible actions of Ukraine in the coming days and weeks is approximately understandable. It is more difficult to answer the question: what will Moscow do? So far, only one thing is clear - the Russian authorities will try to stop the Armed Forces of the Armed Forces in the east, throwing the unprepared masses of the mobilized into battle. The only obvious result of this will be a monstrous level of losses. People just drafted into the army have no idea how to behave in battle so as not to die in the first battle. Rocket terror against Ukrainian cities and critical infrastructure will be brought to the limit. The Kremlin, declaring the occupied territories of Ukraine with its own, will accuse the latter of aggression and declare war on it. It cannot be finally excluded that in despair, Putin can take a chance and inflict a nuclear blow to Ukrainian troops or infrastructure. This will be the end of Putin and Russia, and, who knows, is possible for all modern civilization.