Translated material
The cost of war in Ukraine. Online October 3
The Bell continues to conduct online, dedicated to the economic consequences of the war in Ukraine, which began on February 24.
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20:22 Tesla quotes fell by 10% after Elon Musk published a survey on a settlement between Russia and Ukraine. He, in particular, proposed to re-hold referendums in the annexed regions under the control of the UN.
Although Musk's post caused a wave of indignation, the price drop was initially caused by the results of the third quarter: the company fell behind the delivery plan by 20,000 units (shipped 343,000 electric vehicles), which investors took as a sign of worsening problems with logistics.
18:57 The government of the new Prime Minister of Great Britain Liz Truss went back on their word: tax cuts for the rich were canceled (more precisely, the highest progressive income tax rate of 45% is not excluded). The government, which had championed the measure as early as Sunday, finally succumbed to the onslaught of international investors, who were very surprised at unfunded losses from tax cuts, and representatives of the Conservative Party, shocked by the latest polls about its complete loss in the next election, writes The Wall Street Journal .
The plan, proposed at the end of September by Treasury Secretary Quasi Kwarteng, dropped the pound by 10%, requiring urgent intervention from the Bank of England. The removal of the top tax rate is more of a cosmetic move: it took away only about £2bn from the budget at a total cost of £45bn a year for Truss-led measures.
18:30 Since the beginning of the year, Russian billionaires from the world's top 500 have lost $ 95 billion of their estimated fortune ( according to Bloomberg ).
Viktor Vekselberg had the biggest absolute losses - $11.2 billion, Gennady Timchenko, Alexei Mordashov and Vladimir Lisin ($9 - $10 billion each) were slightly behind him. In a noticeable plus, only the beneficiary of PhosAgro Andrey Guryev (+ $ 1.6 billion), in a small one - Wildberries CEO Tatyana Bakalchuk and Alisher Usmanov's oldest partner Andrey Skoch.
Noticeably more than half of the state, according to Bloomberg calculations, was lost by Vekselberg and Timchenko, about half by Lisin, Mordashov, Roman Abramovich, Viktor Rashnikov, the owner of Akron Vyacheslav Kantor and the main owner of PIK Group Sergey Gordeev.
17:05 RBC announced a change in the commander of the Western Military District: Major General Roman Berdnikov was appointed instead of Colonel General Alexander Zhuravlev .
The head of Chechnya, Ramzan Kadyrov, in a recent sensational post , named Colonel General Alexander Lapin, who also remains commander of the Central Military District, as commander of the Western Military District in Ukraine. The fact that the ZVO group in Ukraine "after a series of defeats from the Armed Forces of Ukraine" is commanded by Lapin was reported by Ukrainian intelligence. She also drew attention to the personnel prospects of Berdnikov, the former commander of the Russian Armed Forces grouping in Syria.
16:50 Two months before the entry into force of the oil embargo, the export of Russian tanker oil to the EU decreased by 60% from the February level (from 1.5 million to 600 thousand barrels per day), and exports to Asia reached a plateau, writes Bloomberg .
- The maximum purchases of India, China and Turkey, taken together, came in June - 2.2 million b/d, for four weeks by September 30, deliveries were on average 350 thousand b/d lower.
- The total export of oil from Russia by sea has been below 3 million b/d for the third week already.
- The average discount on Russian oil from mid-August to mid-September rose to $21.5 from $18.7 per barrel a month earlier.
14:36 The State Duma unanimously ratified all four treaties - on the entry into the Russian Federation of Zaporozhye, Kherson regions, the LPR and the DPR. The Constitutional Court has already approved them; the only thing left is the approval by the Federation Council, which is expected tomorrow, October 4.
“Persons living in the new Russian territories, as well as those who previously lived in these territories, but left for Russia, acquire the citizenship of the Russian Federation as a result of recognition, subject to the submission of an application and taking the Oath of a citizen of the Russian Federation,” the State Duma website says.
14:23 The Russian Ministry of Defense confirmed the advance of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the right bank of the Dnieper in the area of Zolotaya Balka: “The enemy managed to penetrate into the depths of our defense with superior tank units in the direction of Zolotaya Balka, Aleksandrovka. The units of the Russian troops have occupied a pre-prepared defensive line and continue to inflict massive fire damage on the enemy.
12:43 In the meantime, the LPR authorities announced that the formations of the Armed Forces of Ukraine crossed the borders of the region, which are considered the borders of Russia after joining. “But in fact, now we don’t have any administrative borders for the military, in fact, Ukrainian troops have entered the fire bag and are being actively destroyed by our troops,” local media quoted LPR People’s Militia Lieutenant Colonel Andrei Marochko as saying.
12:26 Peskov's new statement about the boundaries within which the Kherson and Zaporozhye regions were admitted to the Russian Federation did not add clarity: "we will continue to consult with their population, everything will depend on their will." LNR and DNR - within the borders of 2014, although this is worded differently in the agreements .
12:16 Friday, September 30 — the day of Putin's address and the signing of agreements on the entry of four new subjects into the Russian Federation — became a record day in terms of loading cash into ATMs and bank branches (145 billion rubles), and, accordingly, in terms of assessing the demand for it. A day earlier, 69 billion cash rubles were put into circulation, according to the data of the Central Bank.
The indicator on September 30 is higher than on the days of September 22 and 23, following the announcement of partial mobilization, and is approaching the March peaks (up to 150 billion rubles)
11:54 Interros of Vladimir Potanin will sell the pharmaceutical company Petrovax to the management and investment company VB Partners, among the founders of which is Ruben Vardanyan. The amount and other terms of the deal were not disclosed.
Petrovax is one of the largest pharmaceutical manufacturers in Russia (revenue of 13.5 billion rubles in 2021) and was export-oriented more than other companies in the industry . In 2020, Petrovax made a bet on the production of the CanSino coronavirus vaccine, which was never approved in Russia, and the project was curtailed . Another original drug of the company - Polyoxidonium - was tested as a means of preventing covid, but was not included in the clinical recommendations.
10:55 The Bank of Russia issued recommendations on the calculation of the ruble exchange rate based on alternative data without direct trading. “In order to establish official rates, additional alternative data sources will be provided - bank statements and digital platforms for over-the-counter trading,” the regulator notes. This is a measure in case of sanctions against the Moscow Exchange or the National Clearing Center (NCC). The market is waiting for sanctions: on Friday, the players actively dumped both the dollar and the euro in anticipation of Putin's appeal and the admission of new subjects to Russia.
The main thing for the night and morning:
- After the capture on Saturday of the strategic Liman in the Kharkiv direction, the Ukrainian Armed Forces also achieved success in the Kherson region, breaking through along the right bank of the Dnieper towards Novaya Kakhovka and the hydroelectric dam. In Russia, meanwhile, a public campaign was launched against the top military leadership.
- On October 5, OPEC+ will discuss the biggest reduction in oil production quotas since 2020 - about 1 million b / d - to support oil prices. Given the importance of the decision, delegates will meet in person in Vienna for the first time since the start of the pandemic.
- South Korean Samsung, not yet intending to leave the Russian market, has hired managers from its longtime competitor, Electrolux, which left it, learned Kommersant . It is possible that this is a safety net in case of mobilization of part of the staff, but, most likely, the company is counting on pent-up demand.
- The EU may exclude pilotage in the Danish Straits from the eighth sanctions package. In this case, the safety of navigation and the environment is more important: oil supplies by tankers from the Baltic ports of Russia are possible only through narrow and often dangerous straits.
- The new management of Credit Suisse promised investors that the investment bank's new strategy would work within 100 days. In the current environment, this is a lot: last week, Credit Suisse quotes fell to a minimum since 2009, and insurance against default on obligations rose by 15%.
- In Brazil, there will be a second round of elections on October 30: ex-president convicted of bribery, socialist Lula da Silva is gaining 48%, the incumbent president, "Trumpist" Jair Bolsonaro - 44%. Both candidates have a good relationship with Vladimir Putin, and both believe that Western sanctions against Russia are hurting the Latin American economy too much.
- In the parliamentary elections in Bulgaria, announced after the resignation of the government of Kirill Petkov in the summer, the party of former Prime Minister Boyko Borisov wins. The advantage is small, the new government, if it can be formed, will again be a coalition. Bulgaria has expelled the majority of Russian diplomats and is de facto supplying weapons to Kiev, no policy changes in the Russian direction are expected.