The cost of war in Ukraine. Online October 4

The Bell continues to conduct online, dedicated to the economic consequences of the war in Ukraine, which began on February 24.

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This online is complete. Read the continuation here .

20:33 The United States is providing Ukraine with a new $625 million aid package, which, among other things, includes the supply of HIMARS MLRS, artillery systems with ammunition and armored vehicles. According to Reuters , they can be transferred to Kiev as early as mid-December.

18:40 The Foreign Ministry announced Moscow's adherence to the postulate of the inadmissibility of any war between countries with nuclear weapons. At the same time, the department stressed that the US and NATO's course of open confrontation with Russia in Ukraine could lead to a military clash of nuclear powers "with the ensuing dire consequences." What is known about possible nuclear escalation scenarios and how to assess their likelihood, read here .

16:38 Gazprom threatens to terminate the contract with Moldova for gas supplies due to regular violations of payment terms in 2022. If the country does not pay by October 20, the company reserves, among other things, the right to a complete cessation of supplies, said in a statement. Gazprom

16:05 Russian troops are defeated in the Kherson region

This afternoon, the Russian Armed Forces left the key settlement of Davydov Brod on the right (western) bank of the Dnieper, for which two months of fierce fighting took place. The Ukrainian media post a video in which the military hangs out the Ukrainian flag in Davydov Brod, the abandonment of the village is also confirmed by Russian pro-military channels.

Russian troops are forced to retreat under the threat of being surrounded. From the list of other settlements abandoned by the RF Armed Forces, which is given by the Russian pro-military channel Rybar (Bolshaya and Malaya Aleksandrovka, Staroselye, Trifonovka, Novaya Kamenka, Olgino and Arkhangelskoye), it follows that during the three days of the active phase of the offensive in the south, the Armed Forces of Ukraine forced the Russian army leave about a third of the occupied territory on the right bank of the Dnieper in the Kherson region.

VGTRK correspondent Yevgeny Poddubny writes : “The situation is difficult both in the north in the Kremennaya-Svatovo region and in the south. In the south, judging by the reports, the situation is critical.”

In the daily official report of the Ministry of Defense of October 4, nothing is said about the retreat in the Kherson region.

15:53 600-700 thousand citizens left Russia after September 21 - Forbes

This publication was informed by a source in the presidential administration. According to another interlocutor of the publication, familiar with the Kremlin's estimates, we are talking about the departure of almost a million people from the country. It is not possible now to calculate how many of them left Russia for tourism purposes.

Earlier, scattered estimates of the number of those who left appeared in the media:

For example, according to the calculations of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Kazakhstan, since September 21, 200,000 Russians have entered the country, and 147,000 have left during the same period.
From September 17 to 26, about 78,000 Russians entered Georgia from Russia, and more than 62,000 Russian citizens left, according to the statistics of the Georgian Ministry of Internal Affairs. They noted that 10 thousand people cross the border every day, which is 40-45% more than before September 21.
During the same week, 66 thousand Russians entered the EU, which is 30% more than a week earlier, the calculated . EU border agency Frontex
According to the calculations of "Paper", at least 37 thousand people left for Finland in a week.

After the announcement of the mobilization, queues formed at the checkpoints of the Russian borders. The most famous is at the Upper Lars checkpoint on the Russian-Georgian border, where people stood in line for 4-5 days. We talked about the situation there here .

15:14 Western media and experts still evaluate Russia's fresh nuclear rhetoric as a "penultimate warning", but do not rule out the real use of tactical nuclear weapons. Read more about this in The Bell article .

13:18 Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said that since the beginning of partial mobilization, more than 200 thousand people have already been called up. Shortly after the announcement of the mobilization, he announced that a total of 300,000 would be called up. The minister also said that:

those currently serving in military service will go home after demobilization;
recruited in the autumn draft will not be sent to the warring units;
the mobilized will be sent "to the areas of the special operation" after combat coordination, together with the units already involved.

12:27 Some bookmakers give the best chances for the 2022 Nobel Peace Prize to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

In second place is the leader of the Belarusian opposition Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, in third place is the people of Ukraine. The top 5 according to NicerOdds also includes Alexei Navalny and the UN High Commissioner for Refugees. Other likely candidates are the World Health Organization (for defeating the pandemic) and environmental activist Greta Thunberg.

The winner will be announced on Friday, October 7, which coincides with the 70th birthday of Russian President Vladimir Putin.

12:04 President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky approved the submission of the National Defense and Security Council on the impossibility of negotiations with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

10:38 The Federation Council unanimously ratified the treaties on the entry of the DPR, LPR, Zaporozhye and Kherson regions into Russia. The next (last) step is their signing by the president.

UPD: The Federation Council also approved constitutional laws on the annexation of new territories to Russia.

10:00 RIA Novosti, citing a source , writes that Gazprom and Turkish Botas are discussing gas prices, not deferred payments.

The main thing for the night and morning:

In the secondary housing market in Moscow, there was a sharp peak in supply , unambiguously associated with the flight of owners from the country after the announcement of mobilization. But real discounts did not exceed 20%, and the market soon stabilized.
The flow of oil to the east has exceeded the capacity of the ESPO oil pipelines, even taking into account reserves, which is why Russian oilmen are forced to return to transportation in tanks by rail.
Turkish importer of Russian gas Botas is asking Gazprom to defer part of payments for 2024, learned Bloomberg . The day before, Hungary received a reprieve.
The government is preparing concessions for business owners with partial mobilization, writes Vedomosti . The owner will be allowed to remain the owner (now military personnel are prohibited from owning a business, even through proxies) and will be given two weeks before being called to put things in order.
In Russia, for the first time in history traffic decreased , mobile Internet by 2.5% in the second quarter. The main reason is the blocking of some traffic-intensive services (Facebook and Instagram, owned by the recognized extremist Meta) and the departure of some of them (Tik Tok) from Russia.
The fourth quarter began with a rally in the US stock market - on the eve of the Dow Jones and S & P 500 rose by 2.7% and 2.6%, respectively. The reason is the weak statistics of industrial production, which implies a smaller increase in the Fed's rate on the horizon of the year.
British Prime Minister Liz Truss continues to justify the nickname "anti-Thatcher". The day before, the country's Ministry of Finance abandoned its plan to cut taxes on the richest, and today Bloomberg wrote that the inner-party opposition will force the prime minister to make further concessions.
US President Joe Biden publicly announced for the first time that he would run for a second term.