“Penultimate warning”: how to assess nuclear threats to Russia

The Western media are considering several options for a limited nuclear escalation that Russia could go for. What is known about them and how is their probability estimated?

In the last week, a number of publications appeared in the Western media about possible real scenarios for the use of nuclear weapons by the Russian side - from the delivery of tactical nuclear weapons to the testing of Doomsday weapons.

Special Technique

published on October 2 Military expert Konrad Muzyka drew attention to a video of a train with armored vehicles with the latest Spica combat module “somewhere in the central zone of Russia” . He determined that the equipment may belong to the 12th Main Directorate of the Ministry of Defense, which is responsible for the storage, transportation and maintenance of nuclear weapons. Music's interview with The Bell about the prospects for war in Ukraine read here .

Demonstrative nuclear explosion

The movement of such special equipment could theoretically indicate preparations for the use of nuclear weapons. about this option The Times wrote : an allegedly demonstrative test of a tactical nuclear warhead could be carried out on the border between Russia and Ukraine, and the NATO alliance warned its members about this possibility.

Another source of the newspaper called an explosion over the Black Sea more likely. The least likely option is the use of tactical ammunition in combat conditions on the territory of Ukraine, since in this case the explosion could hit a Russian border town - for example, Belgorod.

"Poseidon"

The K-329 Belgorod special-purpose submarine, the carrier of Poseidon nuclear drones, transferred to the fleet only in July, entered the Kara Sea, Italian La Repubblica reported , citing NATO intelligence. The goal could be to test this "doomsday weapon".

The exact parameters of the Poseidons are unknown, and their existence became widely known only from Putin's famous speech in 2018. Basically, this is a very large torpedo with a nuclear power plant and a megaton-class nuclear warhead. Presumably, it should be used to destroy large naval bases and coastal facilities of the enemy due to the tsunami caused by a nuclear explosion.

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They talk about it

So far, these are signals to the West, observers agree, but at the same time, the possibility of Russia using nuclear weapons is not ruled out. a Times article On Tuesday, Dmitry Peskov commented on : “Western media, Western politicians, heads of state now have a lot of nuclear rhetoric exercises. We don't want to be involved in this."

Music considers the video with the “atomic” echelon either a leak about escalation readiness, or preparations for the usual autumn exercises of the strategic nuclear forces “Thunder”. Andrew Futter, an expert on nuclear weapons at the University of Leicester, agrees. He told the Times that Belgorod, too, could serve many purposes other than nuclear deterrence, and in this case would rather convince the West to stop its active intervention in Ukraine.

Bloomberg recalls that the preparation for the use of tactical nuclear weapons (as opposed to strategic ones that are in constant readiness) takes time and can be tracked by intelligence. There is no sign of this yet, giving Russia the option of a "penultimate warning."

The use of a nuclear weapon on a front of 1,200 km in itself will not turn the tide of hostilities, "but Putin may try to force Ukraine and its Western allies to retreat," the newspaper notes. In the meantime, “the Kremlin is once again trying to sow fear with hints that further escalation will reach weapons that have not been used in the war since 1945.”

James Rogers, co-founder of the British Geostrategy Council, believes that a Russian nuclear strike cannot be ruled out against the backdrop of Putin's promise to "use all available means" to protect Russia. “Given the current quality of decision-making in the Kremlin, it is impossible to discount it. The Russians are falling into despair, but in any case it will be a huge escalation, which even India and China will condemn, ”the expert says. If NATO's response is also nuclear, it's impossible to predict the consequences, says Futter.