Translated material
The cost of war in Ukraine. Online October 5
The Bell continues to conduct online, dedicated to the economic consequences of the war in Ukraine, which began on February 24.
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22:20 The New York Times writes that the murder of Daria Dugina was carried out by the Ukrainian special services (thereby confirming the version of the FSB ).
More importantly, representatives of the American intelligence services assured the newspaper that they not only did not control, but had nothing to do with planning and ensuring the action, did not know about it in advance, and even “worked out” the Ukrainian side about it. The United States does not have a complete picture of the "centers of power" in the government of Ukraine, so it is possible that the military and President Zelensky did not know about the preparation of the assassination, the NYT notes.
US intelligence does not rule out an escalation of assassination attempts (including on representatives of pro-Russian administrations), which could aggravate the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. “Some U.S. officials believe that the bias towards dangerous adventurism needs to be stopped, especially when it comes to political figures,” writes the NYT.
19:17 In Russia, the second week of inflation : 0.07% by October 3, compared with 0.08% the previous week. Inflation, like before deflation, is still fruit and vegetable: tomatoes rose in price by 5.7%, cucumbers - by 3.9%, bananas - by 3.2%. Among other foodstuffs, eggs increased in price most of all - by 1.5%.
19:04 Novak after the OPEC + meeting : "Our budget is formed at a price of $70, and we believe that this is a comfortable price, which today can be taken as a basis."
18:45 Novak said that Russia is ready to supply Europe with gas through one undamaged line of Nord Stream 2.
18:03 OPEC+ press release made it clear : the 2 million b/d cut will come from quotas, not real production. Given the proportion of quotas and their fulfillment in September, the decline will be less than 1 million b/d (Bloomberg estimates, 880 thousand b/d). Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, meanwhile, said that the introduction of a ceiling on prices for Russian oil could lead to a temporary reduction in production in Russia.
17:03 All OPEC+ members have agreed to cut production by 2 million b/d. NSC Strategic Communications Coordinator John Kirby, meanwhile, urged the US to reduce dependence on OPEC+ and other foreign oil producers.
16:18 The first face-to-face meeting of the OPEC+ monitoring committee since the beginning of the pandemic recommended that participating countries reduce oil production by 2 million bpd. Oil quotes reacted with growth.
14:58 In Penza, the first criminal case has been opened for evading mobilization, said . human rights activist Pavel Chikov
It is important that the case was initiated under article 328 of the Criminal Code with imprisonment of up to two years, which applies only to citizens who evade conscription for military service. “The suspect was detained with the forceful support of the riot police, the second day is in a temporary detention center. He is 32 years old, he refused to sign the summons to the military commissariat,” writes Chikov. The suspect's lawyer filed a motion to dismiss the prosecution.
14:10 "New regions of Russia" will receive benefits similar to the Crimea and Sevastopol, said Deputy Economic Development Minister Sergei Nazarov. This includes exemption for 10 years from the federal part of income tax to the federal budget (3 percentage points out of 20%), and it will be paid to the regional budget in the amount of no more than 13.5%.
13:30 WTO lowered the forecast for the growth of world trade in 2023 to 1% from 3.4%. This will ease inflationary pressures but move the world closer to a recession. This year, the organization predicts growth of 3.5%, while in 2021 it expected recovery growth of almost 10%.
Falling demand is becoming the main factor in the decline in trade turnover. It will not be compensated by the decrease in “friction” in the economy, which is indicated by slightly lower freight prices. New export orders in September fell at the same pace as at the peak of the pandemic in June 2020.
13:11 Dmitry Peskov today did not confirm Putin's appeal, as well as the change in the special operation regime in Ukraine. And he also did not clarify the issue of the borders of the Kherson and Zaporozhye regions accepted into the Russian Federation: “I repeat once again, certain territories there will be returned. And we will continue to consult with those populations that express a desire to live with Russia.”
13:04 Since the end of September, mobilization has continued in Russia, announced shortly after the heavy defeat of Russian forces in the Kharkiv region. According to the authorities, they want to call up 300,000 “reservists” into the army, but numerous testimonies indicate that summonses are often handed out even to those who have never held a weapon in their hands. This provoked panic in society - hundreds of thousands of people urgently left Russia.
What losses will this cost the Russian economy? What will happen to unemployment? What long-term consequences will the mobilized face? about this . We asked Vladimir Gimpelson, director of the Center for Labor Studies at the Higher School of Economics,
12:08 Permanent representatives of the EU countries agreed on new sanctions against Russia, providing for a ceiling on oil prices. The eighth package of sanctions also introduces a ban on the purchase of certain types of steel products, plastics and chemicals from Russia and on the provision of IT and legal services to Russian organizations.
The parameters of the oil ceiling will still be specified, the eighth package of sanctions should lay the legal basis for it. The restrictions will not affect pipeline supplies, according to the Hungarian Foreign Ministry. And for Malta, Greece and Cyprus, whose tanker fleet carries most of the Russian oil, some concessions may be provided, writes Politico.
Russia, together with the OPEC+ countries, can respond to the oil ceiling with a sharp reduction in production.
9:38 Putin signed documents on the acceptance of the DPR, LPR, Zaporozhye and Kherson regions into Russia. All laws have already been published on the official Internet portal of legal information.
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The main thing for the night and morning:
- Russia in September restored oil production, which fell in August for the first time since spring, reports Kommersant . According to the results of three quarters, oil production in Russia increased by 3% year-on-year. At the same time, in September the price of Russian Urals fell by 8.67%.
- The EU countries have agreed on the parameters of the eighth package of sanctions against Russia, the main element of which will be a ceiling on Russian oil prices, this could be officially announced today, writes Politico. The restrictions, according to the Hungarian Foreign Ministry, will not affect pipeline supplies. Russia and Saudi Arabia have already prepared an asymmetric response to the oil price ceiling – according to the FT and Bloomberg , at the next monthly meeting on Wednesday, OPEC + will announce an unplanned significant cut in production, which should raise oil prices.
- Turkey offers Russia to use its Troy payment system instead of Mir, the Turkish newspaper Aydınlık reports , citing sources. Since Troy is completely under the control of the Turkish Central Bank, "it will not be easy for the US to find a reason to intervene," they say in Ankara. "Mir" in Turkey has stopped working since the end of September.
- The yuan this week for the first time bypassed the dollar in terms of trading volume in Russia per day, drew the attention of RBC. The euro yielded to the Chinese currency in this indicator at the end of July.
- The US national debt for the first time exceeded $31 trillion. Crossing this threshold creates a political problem for Biden, who recently officially announced that he was going to run for a second term, notes . The New York Times