Who will be able to calm Putin

The UN General Assembly almost turned away from Russia, condemning the so -called "referendums" in the territories captured by the Kremlin . Putin darted to Astana , to the "allies", as he may think, at a meeting on measures of interaction in Asia. Which of them can he still rely on? And which of them can be counted on as the Savior of the world from Putin? Experts from Kazakhstan, Turkey and Belarus take part in the program: Dosym Satpaev , Togrul Ismail and Anatoly Lebedko . Presenter Elena Rykovtseva.

Video version of the program

Elena Rykovtseva: After the voting for Russia, Vladimir Putin, voting at the General Assembly of the UN, left for Astana to lick wounds. Today, experts from three countries who behaved differently on this vote. Türkiye condemned referendums, Belarus, of course, supported, Kazakhstan abstained. Let's see the plot about what was happening in New York.

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The UN condemned the annexation of the territories of Ukraine

Elena Rykovtseva: Three countries that have changed their position are not so few. You understand that Russian federal channels try to focus on those who voted against this resolution, and especially those who have abstained, try to explain this, of course, taking into service all kinds of techniques of the notorious non -consideration, which actually calls all this assembly the doll theater operating according to Washington’s direction. Leading federal channels are trying to add their colors to this performance.

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UN decision through propaganda lenses

Elena Rykovtseva: You understand that he is sitting in front of the hall, which he really calls slaves: you are slaves, went to you, you were intimidated and so on.

Three countries that have changed their position are not so few

With us, the Dosy Satpaev , political scientist from Kazakhstan. The President of Kazakhstan can afford to abstain once?

Dosy Satpaev: Tokaev is now trying to sit on several chairs. Kazakhstani society is heterogeneous, there are a lot of supporters of Ukraine in the country, here very many negatively perceived Putin's arrival, especially after shelling by missiles of Ukrainian cities. Tokaev is trying to take a certain model of behavior, which is demonstrated by Turkish President Recep Erdogan, that is, on the one hand, he supports Ukraine, even demands to return the Crimea, and on the other hand, he constantly meets with Putin, offers his services as an intermediary. On the one hand, it was officially announced that Kazakhstan does not recognize the referendum of four Ukrainian regions, on the other hand, Tokaev invites Putin to Astana to three summites. We see that Tokaev is trying with all his might to use his experience of the diplomat. In Kazakhstan, it is not necessary to confuse the flexibility of the spine with diplomatic invertebrates.

Even many in Kazakhstan, who considered Russia a partner, understand that now it is the most toxic partner. For a long time this will not be able to continue, most likely, sooner or later the moment will come when Kazakhstan will need to decide what to do with the EurAsEC, to get out of there or not, what to do with the CSTO, which, in fact, has never demonstrated its effectiveness. We see that Kazakhstan is now trying to find some counterbans in relation to Russia. So far, Tokaev does not want to burn all the bridges in relations with Putin. This is evident at least by the fact that this year he met him quite often.

Elena Rykovtseva: And he meets him as a dear guest, although he holds a little distant. How do you generally regard the voting picture for Russia? What promises her this vote, which, of course, has no legislative effect?

Tokaev is now trying to sit on several chairs

Dosy Satpaev: In foreign policy, different resources play an important role. Putin and his click mainly use the military factor. You can take an example of other countries that are now claiming the status of superpower. The same China has a large arsenal of military power, soft power, economic power. We now see that Russia is gradually rolling into the status of a secondary and even third -stage player at a global level. This was well shown by the SCO summit in Samarkand, where criticism sounded to Putin even from those whom he considered as partners, such as India. Xi Jinping was quite restrained towards Putin's statements about his attitude to Ukraine.

Political scientist Dosym Satpaev

Even many in Kazakhstan who considered Russia a partner understand that now this is the most toxic partner

By the way, at the summit, Putin did not even raise the Ukrainian topic, as he understands well that this Russian agenda is toxic, many no longer perceive it. This just suggests that, despite all these votes, the most important problem for Putin and Russia is as follows: the war in Ukraine inflicted a powerful reputation damage, not only in the eyes of the West (relations between the West and Russia were difficult). First of all, the most powerful reputation blow of Russia was inflicted in the eyes of many post -Soviet countries, especially the countries of Central Asia. Despite the fact that they meet with him, they are conducting conversations, the reputation of Russia as a military partner of the CSTO is strongly soaked because of military failures in Ukraine. Economic reputation is greatly tinned because of the sanctions and attempts of Russia to draw everyone into a "gray" parallel import. Putin's most important problem is that even in the eyes of those countries that once considered him as a partner, he is already a lame duck. Yes, they will talk to him, they will not quarrel with him, but some countries will no longer perceive him as an equal partner, and other countries as a guarantor of their security.

Elena Rykovtseva: Togrul Ismail is in touch with us. Your comments on this vote? In fact, the non -consent and these Russian officials also accused Turkey of voting at Washington’s direction. How is this perceived in Turkey?

Togrul Ismail: This opinion is not interested in nobody at all, Turkey acts independently. Since 2014, Türkiye recognizes the territorial integrity of Ukraine, does not agree with the annexation of Crimea and with other annexations. I think that the Americans have nothing to do with it, especially since we now have not everything with them in the frets.

Elena Rykovtseva: The Russian viewer was explained that absolutely everything to it, the Americans pressed on everyone. How do you evaluate the results of voting for Russia, how unpleasant are they to her, how painfully can she be treated?

Türkiye did not join the sanctions: they hit primarily to ordinary citizens, and not on the leadership of the country and oligarchs

Togrul Ismail: I think Russia is well aware of what the situation is in the world today, and the current vote does not really bother the Russian side. If it bothered, then practical actions would not be started. Today Russia is at a dead end. What they want is not quite. They cannot refuse, move, create normal conditions. For Turkey, the danger is that we are a neighboring state. Each time Türkiye is trying to establish relations, create certain contacts for the negotiation process, difficulties always arise. Each time, Russia increases pressure on Ukraine, thinking that the opposite side will go to certain concessions. This is not entirely true.

Of course, Türkiye did not cover its gates, airspace for Russia, did not join the sanctions, because our actions will be ineffective. We believe that sanctions as a long -term process hit primarily on ordinary citizens, and not on the leadership of the country and oligarchs. I think that if Russia thought that such votes were painful, it could act differently from the very beginning.

It is very important for Turkey to be an energy hub

Elena Rykovtseva: You said that sanctions are ineffective. Do you think that your leadership has a plan to somehow slow down Putin, somehow stop it in terms of these aggression, with which the Turkish leadership does not agree, judging by the vote at the General Assembly?

Togrul Ismail: We have a difficult situation. We are neighbors, first of all, it hit us ... For us, the most important thing is that military operations are suspended, at least, negotiation processes begin. Everything must be solved peacefully. A difficult process and a difficult situation, it is difficult to resolve. Our leadership is trying to somehow agree, clarify the current situation. Today's negotiation process: it was officially expressed so that there was no conversation about Ukraine, but in fact, before the trip, the Turkish president tried to create conditions for the Russian side to go on dialogue with the West, with Ukraine. This is a very difficult moment. On the other hand, of course, we are worried about the grain corridor, which is designed for 120 days, will end soon.

Elena Rykovtseva: This gas hub, which Vladimir Putin offers to your president, is such a flirting with him?

Togrul Ismail: There was a "southern stream" , which Russia considered a geopolitical project where Turkey was supposed to be out of the game. After the annexation of Crimea on December 1, 2014, Russian President Vladimir Putin suddenly said that there would be no “southern flow”, but there will be another stream, and this turned out to be a “Turkish stream” . For Russia, it was a geopolitical project, and Türkiye considers it as an economic one. Therefore, what Russia tried to achieve was failed.

At the current stage, Russia offers certain conditions. But for us, the most important thing (today the Minister of Energy also expressed this opinion) is to take into account economic calculations, geopolitical force majeure and so on how beneficial for us. For Turkey, a policy to be an energy hub is very important. We have such projects with Azerbaijan, there are other projects that have geopolitical significance. Now we are negotiating with Israel to transport Israeli gas to Europe. Russia can offer, but Türkiye will take into account its own interests, especially since we are part of the European Union, we have certain agreements, and we cannot violate them. In addition, we are NATO members. It is important for us that we, as a state, have a very serious possibility of dialogue between the warring parties: both with Ukraine and with Russia. Someone must do this.

Elena Rykovtseva: Anatoly Lebedko is with us. Please tell me, your president is no longer rushing about, “ours and yours” will never be present in his politics, or does he still leave some bridges?

Today Lukashenko is in a position more than ever a short leash from Putin

Anatoly Lebedko: Firstly, not ours, and secondly, not the president. Thirdly, let's take into account that Lukashenko has a voting card to the UN. If there was an opportunity to vote to citizens of Belarus, the vast majority would have expressed their hands in support of the Russian war in Ukraine. These three very important points give an understanding of what is happening today in Belarus.

Anatoly Lebedko

As for Lukashenko’s capabilities, yes, he had the best times when the tail was twisted by the dog, Lukashenko used the double blackmail strategy in relation to the Kremlin and to the West, and he managed to do this quite effectively. Today he is in a position as never before the short leash from Putin, and this leash gives him minimal opportunities for some strategy that would allow him to survive. Therefore, today, more and more often they say that Lukashenko finally lost subjectivity, has turned into a vassal of Putin, that he is satellite, a person who does not control everything in his own territory, especially if we take into account the fact that he offers Putin infrastructure for Russians, where they conduct military operations against Ukraine. The situation is threatening.

After a meeting in Sochi, Lukashenko suddenly surfaced at first in Abkhazia, and now we have already witnessed the voicing of the projects of the return of Russian troops to Belarus (it is clear that they will not obey either Lukashenko or the Belarusian generals). So the situation is very alarming, Lukashenko has a small space for maneuver, and for Belarusians this is the expectation of unpredictable actions. Voting to the UN attested that Russia had lost the status of superpower.

The situation is very alarming, Lukashenko has a small space for maneuver, and for Belarusians this is the expectation of unpredictable actions

Moreover, in my opinion, the most sensitive defeat is an indicator that Russia does not affect the processes in the post -Soviet space even on a regional scale. In fact, she has one predicted trusted ally in the person of the Belarusian ruler, and everything else goes into independent swimming. This, it seems to me, is the factor that says that it is not just a political vote, raising hands: this is evidence of Putin’s defeat not only in the war in Ukraine, but also in the post -Soviet space.

Elena Rykovtseva: Of course, this is impossible to calculate arithmetic, but if you yourself, on the basis of your analysis, gave such a figure as the percentage of Lukashenko’s decisions to let in Russian troops to his territory - this is his own desire, and what is the percentage of Putin's pressure?

Anatoly Lebedko: Of course, Lukashenko is interested in the fact that there are no Russian troops in Belarus so that there are two military facilities, but not military bases. The arrival of Russian troops is one of the next minimum consequences: they can get the status of the Russian military base, and this is a danger to the sovereignty, independence of Belarus. Therefore, he would prefer that there was a zero presence of Russian troops, but for Russia to share as much weapons as possible. If Russia supplied planes, complexes, for Lukashenko it would be the most profitable option. The military budget of the Belarusian army is 800 million, it is a little money, the cost of one S-400 complex. And Lukashenko is important to play muscles and show that he remains a cool guy. We remember his statements in three days to reach Kyiv, together with Putin to take a parade on Khreshchatyk. I think he would like to avoid the presence of Russian troops, because for him it is unpredictability and bad scenarios, but at the same time have military support at the arms level and financial support, to receive subsidies from the Kremlin.

Elena Rykovtseva: I will now show a survey of passers -by, and then we will ask our experts to imagine that they are also passers -by, that they took part in this survey. Today we asked Muscovites that in common among such countries that voted against, like Russia, Belarus, Syria, DPRK and Nicaragua, why five countries voted against the whole world.

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What is in common with countries like Russia, Belarus, Syria, DPRK and Nicaragua?

Elena Rykovtseva: Dosy, what do you think that these five countries have in common? Professionally, politicalologically, explain to us.

Dosyy Satpaev: There, one woman in the survey mentioned "general political views." These are dictatorial countries, which, of course, have common views on the world, in their place in this world. Most of these countries are under hard sanctions. These are states that build their economy and domestic policy on the principle of a mobilization scheme. These are countries that can support the existing ruling elite only if they constantly look for internal and external enemies. They have no reason to break into some leaders in the field of economic, innovative development, their main task is to fight with all, with internal, often mythical enemies and constantly look for external enemies. This is what unites them.

These are states that build their economy and domestic policy on the principle of mobilization scheme

Elena Rykovtseva: Togrul, will you add something, some of their common features?

Togrul Ismail: Syria is now very dependent on Russia, in fact it is not an independent state. Russia acts actively, supports Assad. Belarus is also very connected with Russia, "in debt" is a union state and so on. DPRK - I see, there is anti -Americanism. By the way, Nicaragua is also associated with anti -Americanism. I think the most important thing is.

Elena Rykovtseva: Anatoly, imagine that you are our Moscow passerby: how would you answer the question of what in common has these five countries?

Anatoly Lebedko: I would say that these are ideological Siamese twins. These are people who are stuck in the past, each of them has a strong nostalgia for the past. Everyone has its own past, but it is the past, this is not a look forward. I would say that these are all politicians, sick with power. The diagnosis is very terrible, there is no antidote from it, they are ready to cling to power using any tools and mechanisms. They help each other to hold on to power, Putin somehow helps them to hold on to her, and this, of course, unites them. They also have a tendency to the uniform, all of them, one way or another, love the uniform. These are people with such thinking that they feel comfortable when they are fighting, it doesn’t matter with whom: inside their country - with parties, with opposition, with non -governmental organizations, or outside - with the same America, liberalism and other things. In a normal civilian life, they feel absolutely uncomfortable, they need a uniform, military rhetoric, they need to mobilize the country to repel a particular attack or threat. This is their style of government.

Elena Rykovtseva: Let's see the plot of the summit where Vladimir Putin, obviously, rushed for his support.

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Putin's visit to Astana

Tokaev since January tried to get rid of the image of the puppet, Putin's debtor in January

Elena Rykovtseva: You know very well that in Russia many people who are opposed, anti -Putinsky associate with President Tokayev certain hopes that this is a person who is able to either affect Vladimir Putin directly, or perhaps to break with him so that for Putin this is a noticeable click. Do you personally have what types of your president in terms of influence and impact on Putin?

Dosy Satpaev: In fact, he can slightly. I have the feeling that Putin does not perceive him as an equal partner, first of all, because in January, when the CSTO supported Tokayev in an intra -elite battle, everyone understands that this was not the support of the CSTO, but Putin. Tokayev’s statements in St. Petersburg regarding the non -recognition of the Donetsk and Lugansk “People’s Republics” - it was a message of the international audience, primarily the Western. From January, Tokaev tried to get rid of the image of a puppet, that is, a person whom Putin could control, a certain debtor Putin in January.

When the war in Ukraine began, Tokaev began to understand that this is a certain opportunity to gradually straighten his image so that he would not be perceived by a la Lukashenko. Therefore, Tokaev began to throw messages, which were supposed to demonstrate some kind of independence in foreign policy. This message was addressed to the internal Kazakhstani audience, because after January, very many Kazakhstanis did not perceive Tokayev as an independent player. By the way, in Kazakhstani society there is still a strong split. Many in Kazakhstan are disappointed with Tokayev in connection with domestic politics. On the other hand, now Tokaev is trying with all his might to balancing between attempts to be a handshake in the West, in the eyes of an international community, and at the same time not to quarrel with Putin.

There are still purely objective reasons why this is happening. We are greatly dependent on oil exports, our main oil pipe goes through Russia, over 80% of Kazakhstani oil goes to Europe through this pipeline. Since February, there have been several problems, stopping the pipeline-it was a serious blow to the financial and economic position of Kazakhstan. Tokaev also understands this well, but despite this, he made statements that it was necessary to look for alternatives. By the way, along with Azerbaijan and Turkey. That is, he is now trying to sit on different chairs, look for certain opportunities to be perceived as a person who can offer his own agenda.

By the way, the summit is just Tokayev’s attempt to offer the agenda. This is a certain site where Kazakhstan is the owner, this site is ready to turn into a more or less working international organization, even to compete with Russian influence in the post-Soviet space. I think Tokaev will try to strengthen the interaction with the SCO and the organization of the Turkic states. When he invited Putin to Astana, he thus tried to some extent to be a kind of intermediary: I maintain contacts with Putin, I have direct relationships with him, in certain cases I am ready to provide the territory of Kazakhstan and my services as an intermediary. Although here the main competition will be Erdogan, in my opinion, he will have more opportunities for this. But, I think, Tokaev as a diplomat is trying to please everyone with all his might.

Many Kazakhstanis believe that Putin is not the partner with whom Kazakhstan should associate his future

It is difficult to say how long it will continue. But the geopolitical situation is largely deteriorating, Russia is becoming more and more toxic partner, Putin is more and more isolated as the leader of his state. Sooner or later, Tokaev will have to reckon with this. Kazakhstani public opinion on this subject will be very important. After all, many Kazakhstanis still believe that Putin is not the partner with whom Kazakhstan should associate his future, and economic, military, and political.

Elena Rykovtseva: 27 countries that take part in this meeting is not such a comfortable company for Vladimir Putin. Most countries that are present in Astana at this forum (11 of them are represented by the heads of state) voted for the UN resolution: Afghanistan, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Cambodia, Egypt, Kuwait, Irael, Israel, Jordan, Qatar, South Korea, Türkiye and united Arab Emirates. They abstained from those who came to Astana: China, India, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Mongolia, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Tajikistan, Thailand, Uzbekistan and Vietnam. Accordingly, only Russia and Belarus are against the resolution in this company. Your president, unlike Russian, said in two points of his speech that the world is important in Ukraine and that the diplomatic settlement is needed. He sets this his personal, personal task. How can he influence Vladimir Putin so that he will calm down?

Togrul Ismail: Turkey is now trying to ensure that at least somehow, at least, to conduct a dialogue. The situation is very difficult. For us, the main thing is international law. We always try, we show as much as possible that the territorial integrity of neighboring states is important to us, we support this issue. The president of the country-of course, he and his team, perhaps, have a lot of information that we do not own-but they are constantly trying to conduct a dialogue, meet at various sites, at least somehow show, achieve, or at least explain in what difficult situation Russia is. Naturally, the war in our neighborhood is a difficulty for us. I think the Turkish president most likely explains that the further complication of the position, the strengthening of the Russian military presence will connect the hands of Turkey too.

Togrul Ismail

In the end, there is a limit to everything. The public of Turkey is also unhappy with this. The support of Ukraine is strong, mainly the public for Ukraine. Here we are talking about the territorial integrity of the neighboring state, about international law, and the public of Turkey is sensitive in this matter. There are levers, but how effective they will be, it is very difficult to say. It is impossible today to explain the position that Putin leads. Since February 24, actions were very incomprehensible. Everyone perfectly understood that the attack on Ukraine ... In the modern world, to occupy the territories of such a state as Ukraine, with the current economic situation in Russia, this is almost like suicide. Putin made such a decision. For Turkey, the most important thing is that the military operations do not continue - it hits our economy, creates a very difficult environment. Moreover, there is a danger from the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant and so on, and this will first be hit in our country. We already economically suffer from this war in Ukraine.

Elena Rykovtseva: Anatoly, do you have any hopes for some alliances? For example, the alliance of the presidents of Kazakhstan and Turkey. What are your personal hopes for world leaders, are they in terms of influence, influence, stopping Vladimir Putin?

Anatoly Lebedko: If we talk about alliances, then for us, an alliance with Ukraine is now more important than ever. Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, as an unconditional democratic leader of Belarus, voiced a proposal addressed to Vladimir Zelensky that such an alliance must be created. Our expectations, like residents of other countries, are primarily associated with the outcome of the war in Ukraine. Для нас крайне важно военное поражение Путина. Если это произойдет, то это хороший шанс для деоккупации Беларуси. Сегодня Беларусь находится под двойной оккупацией – оккупацией режимом Лукашенко и оккупацией режимом Путина. Военное поражение Путина – это шанс и для всего мира, и в первую очередь для Беларуси, поэтому такой политический альянс нам сейчас очень важен.

Мы знаем, что Беларусь – одна из немногих стран, которая имеет эффективное подразделение, воюющее в Украине. Это война за будущее Беларуси в первую очередь. Понятно, что демократический мир должен объединяться. Мы знаем ту повестку дня, которую озвучил президент Зеленский, которую озвучивает вся Украина: это военная помощь. На сегодняшний день именно Украина реально останавливает Путина и дает шанс.

Военное поражение Путина – это шанс и для всего мира, и в первую очередь для Беларуси

Меня, конечно, удивляет, что делает Лукашенко в Астане. Понятно, что интересы Беларуси в других местах, в первую очередь надо было искать поддержку, экономические союзы в Европе. У нас рядом Евросоюз, богатейший регион и по покупательной способности, и по технологиям, там надо было присутствовать Лукашенко, если бы он был легитимным президентом, а не в далекой Астане. Я это связываю с тем, что ему просто не хватает международной повестки, Тихановская забрала у него 80% международной политики, и ему нужно демонстрировать своему немногочисленному электорату, что он что-то делает вне страны. Поэтому он и стремится, пусть это даже будет приставной стульчик где-то, в ШОС.

Елена Рыковцева: Он стремится в Азию, это саммит стран азиатского региона.

Анатолий Лебедько: Для белорусов это выглядит немного странно, но и объяснимо: если тебя не принимают в Европе, то, конечно, ты ищешь какие-то другие площадки. Иногда они выглядят очень искусственно.

Елена Рыковцева: Досым, как вы расцениваете призыв самоназначенного руководителя Херсонской области, который призвал власти России принять к себе население этого региона? What does it mean?

Досым Сатпаев: Коллаборационисты были всегда и везде. Вспомним Францию, Виши и так далее. Во всех странах это было, к сожалению, та самая "пятая колонна". Это все будет длиться до тех самых пор, пока Россия не потерпит поражение, и рано или поздно это произойдет. Кто-то тоже когда-то думал, что Гитлер пришел всерьез и надолго. Они же Третий рейх создавали на тысячелетия, искренне считали, что так и продлится, а просуществовали очень короткий период времени. Россия потерпит поражение, она уже терпит поражение в сфере экономики, в сфере своей репутации, она терпит и военное поражение – это уже видно всему миру.