Translated material
The cost of war in Ukraine. Online October 13
The Bell continues to conduct online, dedicated to the economic consequences of the war in Ukraine, which began on February 24.
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20:18 The Moscow Exchange is preparing to launch trading in the Tajik somoni and the Kyrgyz som, told Kirill Pestov, managing director of the business development department of the Moscow Exchange, RBC Investments. Among the new currency pairs, the UAE dirham is also being considered. The timing of the launch of trading is not specified, since there is still no necessary infrastructure for this.
18:59 The government will help residents of the Kherson region to leave for Russia, said Deputy Prime Minister Marat Khusnullin in response to an appeal from the "head" of the Kherson region Vladimir Saldo. They were promised "free accommodation" and "everything you need". “Those who decide to stay in a new place on a permanent basis will be provided with housing,” Khusnullin assured.
17:44 The Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) adopted a resolution in which it recognized the current regime in Russia as terrorist. for the resolution voted 99 deputies out of 100 , one abstained. PACE also called for speeding up the creation of a special international tribunal to investigate war crimes in Ukraine. Another point is devoted to the question of the expediency of Russia's participation as a permanent member of the UN Security Council.
16:07 Consumer inflation in the US in September reached 8.2% in annual terms (+0.4% compared to August), but more important is core inflation, which is growing by 0.6% for the second month and reached 6.6%. The United States has not seen such an increase in base prices for exactly 40 years - since 1982. This virtually guarantees another 0.75 percentage point increase in the Fed's key rate. In November. Futures on the S&P 500 fell 2% before the open.
15:58 Dmitry Peskov said that saboteurs who intended to blow up the TurkStream gas pipeline (obviously, its land part in the Krasnodar Territory) were detained in Russia: “certain forces, Putin gave hints about the possible origin of these forces <...> they have already encroached on the Turkish Stream”. Just today, Putin and Erdogan discussed the expansion of gas cooperation in Astana.
15:34 The Russian Ministry of Defense announced the exchange of 20 Russian servicemen "from the territory of Ukraine controlled by the Kiev regime." “All released servicemen are provided with the necessary psychological and medical assistance. As soon as possible, they will be delivered to medical institutions of the Ministry of Defense for treatment and rehabilitation,” the brief message says.
On Tuesday, wrote Andriy Yermak, head of President Zelensky's office, about the return of 32 Ukrainian servicemen home. He titled the post "Our Houses" and noted that "each prisoner has his own story - there are those who" tear "from the inside."
15:13 Nervousness in the European energy market is illustrated by two pieces of news today.
In the morning there were reports that the Nyhamna gas processing plant in Norway, which provides 20% of the UK's gas imports, was being evacuated due to the threat of an explosion. Gas quotes on the Dutch TTF hub instantly jumped 8% and fell back when the threat turned out to be false.
Later, Bloomberg devoted the top news to a catalytic cracking compressor failure at a large Shell Pernis refinery near Rotterdam. In the context of the refinery workers' strike in France, stopping one of the largest diesel fuel suppliers to the EU would be highly undesirable, the agency notes. A spokesman for the company described the incident as a "nuisance".
14:44 Acting Governor of the Kherson region within Russia Vladimir Saldo appealed to the federal authorities of Russia with a request to organize “the departure of Kherson families to other regions of the Russian Federation for recreation and study. First of all, for the inhabitants of the right bank.” The reason is the missile strikes of Ukraine, which, according to Saldo, is taking revenge on the people of Kherson for choosing in favor of Russia.
Note that Kherson itself is located on the right bank of the Dnieper. Since the beginning of September, the Russian Armed Forces have lost control of about a quarter of the bridgehead. Just today, the British Ministry of Defense assessed as probably reliable reports that the "Russian occupation authorities" began preparations for the evacuation of part of the civilian population from Kherson. “It is likely that they are expecting the approach of hostilities to Kherson itself,” the message says.
14:08 Meanwhile, President Putin, at a meeting in Astana with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, developed the idea of a gas hub on Turkey's border with the EU. “We could calmly regulate [prices at the hub] at a normal, market level, without any political overtones,” Putin said. The Bell wrote about the idea of replacing the Baltic transit with the Black Sea one in an evening mailing list.
13:54 Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said that Russia will stop oil supplies to countries that comply with the price ceiling, regardless of its level.
13:04 In Belgorod, a rocket fragment hit the upper technical floor of a high-rise building, several cars in the parking lot near the house were damaged by concrete fragments. The governor of the region said that this was the result of the shelling of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. There are no reports of casualties yet.
According to pro -military Telegram channels, a Ukrainian missile shot down by air defense fell on the house. The version is partially confirmed by a photo of the characteristic spent first stage of the Pantsir air defense system, which fell on the playground.
12:13 After the start of mobilization in Russia, the demand for long-term storage products has grown sharply, Forbes writes , citing NielsenIQ materials.
In part, this is the traditional reaction of the population to any crisis: sales of granulated sugar in two weeks increased by 70% (in monetary terms), canned meat and others - by 58%. But it seems that part of the purchases are dry rations for the mobilized, since the demand for stew, condensed milk, pasta and rice has increased atypically.
10:33 The Washington Post has compiled a selection of anonymous statements from the "Russian elite" - big businessmen and officials - about the current situation. The general mood is "exhaustion and depression in the face of the expected deterioration in politics and the economy."
Businessmen:
- “There are other problems at the front. I don’t think that [hitting infrastructure] will reduce the pressure.”
- “The whole business is suffering from what is happening. Everyone froze investments.”
- “Everyone [in the business] is in a complete daze. The mood is terrible."
- “In a few months there will be a very negative development - a deterioration in public sentiment. It all depends on the situation at the front."
Officials:
- “[High-precision] missiles are being assembled, but in single quantities. Old stock is running out."
- “In the summer there was faith that we would turn everything around and find a way. [Now] there is no future in sight.”
- “The status quo does not suit anyone. It is clear that neither military nor political victory is possible. But defeat is also impossible. A situation of zugzwang is created, when each subsequent move is worse than the previous one, but it is impossible not to make a move.
- “We started to enter a revolutionary situation. Everyone is waiting for something to change - power or war. The Hawks want tough action. "Doves" - no war. The moment for a change in the political system is brewing. But how that will happen, I don't know."
9:39 Bloomberg published a column by the former commander-in-chief of NATO forces in Europe, James Stavridis, dedicated to Russian strikes on Ukraine's energy infrastructure. The main idea is that strikes of this kind do not give victory on the ground in a war with a motivated enemy.
Stavridis, who led the operation in Libya in 2011, recalls that even 25,000 sorties, 10,000 guided bombs and missiles, and a no-fly zone did not lead to the overthrow of the Gaddafi regime: the rebels had to create effective ground forces. “I realized that aviation alone - and even complete air superiority - does not allow you to capture and hold positions on the ground,” writes the retired admiral. “Putin will have to realize the same thing.”
He estimates the probability of a nuclear escalation in Ukraine at 10-15%, taking into account the predictably sharp reaction of the world community and the risk of losing the support of India and China. “Most likely, Putin will continue the campaign of missile strikes in the winter, and the stockpiles of precision-guided weapons in Russia will come to naught,” writes Stavridis. “He expects the Europeans to give in when they feel the price of electricity and the cold in their homes, the demoralized Ukrainians to sue for peace, and the US to absorb domestic political squabbles. But this bet won't work."
9:22 The US administration with allies continues to develop an oil ceiling mechanism for Russia.
However, some officials fear that the recent decision of OPEC + to reduce production by 2 million b/d will not allow the ceiling to work and, on the contrary, will drive prices up, writes Bloomberg. In addition, more and more participants in the process believe that Moscow, as it has repeatedly threatened, will indeed stop deliveries to countries that comply with the ceiling. “The proposal [to cap the price of Russian oil] is seen as the best of the worst options to cut off Russia’s oil profits and the ability to finance the war in Ukraine,” the agency writes.
The main thing for the night and morning:
- The UN General Assembly adopted a resolution condemning the "referenda" in the DPR, LPR, Kherson and Zaporozhye regions. The statement contains a demand for Russia to reconsider the decision to annex these territories. The resolution was supported by 143 countries out of 193. Belarus, North Korea, Nicaragua and Syria sided with Russia. China and India abstained from voting.
- The price ceiling for Russian oil can be set at $60 per barrel, said US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen . According to her, such a threshold will allow Russia to profit from the sale of oil, but at the same time significantly reduce its oil revenues. In July, Bloomberg reported that the United States and its allies were discussing a price ceiling for Russian oil in the range of $40-60 per barrel. The Russian authorities called the price comfortable for the budget in the range of $65-80 per barrel.
- Sberbank closed a record number of offices in September - more than 520. According to experts, by reducing 868 branches in 2022, Sberbank will be able to save up to 21 billion rubles. In general, the number of bank branches across the country increased by 41 in September, including due to opening them in new territories.
- Cinemas continue to look for new content that they can show in the absence of Hollywood novelties. An attempt to show films by foreign companies without distribution certificates was unsuccessful. Now the united cinema network "Formula Kino" and "Cinema Park" has entered into an agreement with the TV channel "Yu" on the pre-premiere screenings of the new season of the reality show "Pregnant at 16". The agreement includes showings of four episodes in 60 theaters across the country. Karo does not yet show television shows, but they hold serial marathons, arrange YouTube-format shows and broadcast computer games and sporting events.
- Banks offer to establish direct data exchange between credit institutions, employers and the Ministry of Defense. This is necessary in order to promptly confirm the status of the mobilized and provide him with credit holidays. The Federal Tax Service can become the center for collecting data on state support for conscripts.