In a rocket dead end

It is no longer possible to destroy the Ukrainian energy system available to Putin. APU goes forward

The Russian front is staggering again. This time-near Berislav (cities on the right bank of the Dnieper to the northeast of Kherson), where he had already poured not so long ago. Then the Ukrainian armored vehicles advanced along the Kakhovsky reservoir and threatened to close the encirclement, cutting off Russian troops on the left bank of the Ingalets River. Russian troops hastily and pretty in order moved away, taking the equipment with them - and now, apparently, they move on, increasing the density of the troops near Kherson.

That Russian troops depart is already familiar, but much more important why they leave. The fact is that reinforcements began to arrive in Ukraine: 10 thousand Ukrainian soldiers, the best of the best, passing three months, retraining and training in the UK. They arrive with all possible science fiction equipment and technology: infantry-at the Maxhpro , the latest American-Israeli armored personnel carrier, which goes to the United States to replace Humvee, artillerymen with their 155 calibers. This is the 155th art, according to the military expert of Roman Svitan, the pilot of the Armed Forces and the colonel of the reserve, and now the Russian positions near Berislav will nail. And 200 Maxxpro, which the Americans supply , will largely solve the problem of a catastrophic drawback of armored vehicles in the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

On the Russian side we have mobilization. About 300 thousand people who are mobilized in the “first wave”. Of these, half trains at least somewhere in Russia or Belarus, and for the other half of the places in the training grounds there are simply no. There are no places, no training grounds, there are no rooms for placement - nothing. Therefore, they are thrown immediately to the front, and there-either in trenches or to training grounds located 40-70 km from the front, that is, in the Himars area. “They train there,” says Roman Svitan, “they shit day and night. They give them what is - small arms. ”

These are those people who on average were not agile or smart enough to escape from mobilization, because Putin's mobilization is carried out so that the chances of echoing it sharply increase from a little resourcefulness.

You don’t even have to run to Kazakhstan, just go to the swamp for the cranberry.

That is, on the one hand, the mobiles, who are taught to hold the machine gun with the right end and who did not guess to go to the swamp for the cranberries. On the other hand, 10 thousand soldiers, the most motivated and trained, who fought eight years who fought at the beginning of this war, and then for another three months went to prepare to study the war of the 21st century.

What, do you think, will be the result of a collision in the Kherson region? We ask in a different way: how many peasants armed with sickles could kill a medieval knight, a scientist from childhood, in chain mail and with a sword? Correct military answer: an unlimited number.

But even the situation on the right bank of the Dnieper is hopeless for Putin - turns pale in front of the trap in which he drove himself to his rocket tantrum on the occasion of the explosion on the Crimean bridge.

Let's start from afar.

In the summer of 2020 , a whole series of explosions sounded in Iran. Everything exploded-a military complex in Parchin, a clinic in Tehran, centrifuges in Nathanz, a power station in Ahhzyh, a factory in a bucershara, an petrochemical complex in Tondguyan-explosions followed one after another from June 25, 2020 to July 19 with a break of 3-5 days.

The explosions had two goals: firstly, to strike a crushing blow to the Iranian nuclear program. And secondly,-force Iran to answer.

The calculation was that Iran would respond with civilian terror in Israel. After that, Trump will roll out such sanctions that the Iranian nuclear program will be buried forever, and no new US administration will change this. Israel, of course, never admitted the attacks.

Iranian mullah calculated the situation up to two - and did not answer.

Putin is not Iranian mullahs.

On October 7, on Putin’s birthday, at a military airfield in Shaykovka near Kaluga, from which strategic bombers rise to bomb the X-22 Ukraine missiles, an explosion sounded. The drone or barrazing ammunition exploded. The Russian side reports that there were no damage, the Ukrainian says that two strategic bombers were damaged. There is no video where the truth is, we don’t know. But the story in Shaikovka is much more important than it might seem at first glance.

And on October 8, in the morning, with a delay of several hours, a truck exploded on the Crimean bridge. If at least half of what the FSB is now reported, then before us is a dazzlingly bold operation of the Ukrainian GUR, which puts it in the same level with the Mossad (we were not without reason about the Iranian explosions of 2020).

This explosion turned out to be catastrophic in terms of supplying a Russian group near Kherson. According to Roman Svitan, the possibilities of its supply were reduced exactly half. “The trucks stopped walking by the automobile bridge,” he says. - And on the railway bridge they carry only one branch. There are few ferries, and even a storm. The generals who lead the Kherson Front understand - in a week the ammunition will remain 50%, and the same with fuel. I would have planned a departure in their place now. ”

But even more catastrophic turned out to be the following.

The United States refused to supply ATACMS out of fear that they would be used to strike on the Crimean bridge, and Putin will arrange a “judgment day” in response,

Medvedev promised. They also refused to supply Ukraine F-16 of fears that the missiles launched from these fighters would destroy the Tu-22M and Tu-95 strategic bombers, which produce their missiles over the territory of Russia.

Ukraine took all the risks on itself. On Putin’s birthday - that is, in the most offensive form - she struck the shaykovka and the Crimean bridge, and the latter with the most severe, not at all symbolic consequences.

Putin’s response blow to the innocent lives was shown in CNN in all details - but ultimately testified to his military impotence.

Putin got into the plug of a slave. “Do not answer” - in the logic of the gateway (not wars, not strategies, namely gateways) - meant to be a weak in the eyes of the whole world and its own environment. Reply with missile terror - meant the subsequent multiple increase in military supplies to Ukraine, and even a shame if the terror does not reach the goal.

Putin - unlike Iranian mullah - answered, and even disgraced.

On Monday-a day after the bridge undermined-Russia launched 84 missiles with a total value of 400 to 700 million dollars in Ukraine, plus a couple of dozens of Iranian Shakadov-136, for their great hicittering and small combat load of contemptuously nicknamed “mopeds”. The goal was to “disable Ukrainian energy infrastructure, freeze Ukraine and force it to ask for peace,” as military expert Oleg Zhdanov, a reserve colonel and a former employee of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

It was another cunning scheme in the leader’s brain. His strategy, apparently, has recently consisted of finding cunning schemes and magic objects that will correct everything.

At the misfortune of Putin, the Ukrainian energy structure during the USSR was built with the expectation of a nuclear war with the United States. She is undoubtedly vulnerable - if the missiles were ten times more. But the missiles as much as they are, and even half were shot down.

According to the Minister of Defense of Ukraine, Alexei Reznikov, after Monday answer, Russia had 609 high -precision missiles out of 1844 , which she had at the beginning of the invasion, and the capabilities of the “caliber” in the conditions of sanctions were sharply falling and are probably measured even by tens, but units per month. Of the 900 Iskander, 124 remained, out of 500 “calibers”-272, out of 444 X-101 and X-555, 213 remained. This is not even NZ-it has already been printed.

If Reznikov’s data is accurate, then the task of destroying the infrastructure for the nuclear war with this number of infrastructure missiles is impossible. This is not to mention the fact that the destruction of civil infrastructure does not affect the ability of Ukraine to defend. “Our logistics does not depend on the warehouses,” Oleg Zhdanov recalls, “everything is supplied“ from the wheels ”, and the warehouses are abroad.”

But Putin’s missile terrorism on the eve of the next Ramstein ended exactly what could be predicted at a time.

Firstly, Ukraine will receive serious air defense , which will be “represented as quickly as possible,” as Minister of Defense of the United States Lloyd Austin said at the final press conference. Ukraine, of course, is large, there will not be enough any of the declared NASAMS and Crotale throughout the territory, but the step is serious.

And secondly, and this is the most important thing-the Americans were convinced,-what can Russian strategic bombers choose their goal (you have not forgotten about gut?) And the Crimean bridge-and the answer will be hysterical, bloody, but unsuccessful.

Shaykovka and the Crimean bridge - it was a "punching".

I won’t be surprised if, after this successful “punching” on the Crimean bridge, sooner or later ATACMS arrives, and on the Russian Tu-22M, raised into the air above Kaluga to bomb Ukraine, a rocket from the F-16 set by Ukraine.

Ukrainian pilots have long been prepared.

That is, so far, of all the possible answer options for him, Putin accurately chose the worst, and Ukraine once again demonstrated that he was not afraid of his bluff - and won.

About how much this increases the risk of nuclear conflict - another time.