ISW: Russia may be planning false-flag attack on Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant

Russia may be preparing to carry out a false-flag attack on the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant (HPP) in Ukraine’s Kherson region, according to a new assessment from the American think tank the Institute for the Study of War.

According to the report’s authors, their conclusions are based on recent statements from General Sergey Surovikin, the commander of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and Vladimir Saldo, the head of the collaborationist administration in the occupied part of the Kherson region. Both men have claimed Ukraine is preparing to destroy the dam at the Kakhovka HPP in order to flood the surrounding areas.

The analysts believe Russia is trying to lay the groundwork to blame Ukraine for the death and destruction caused by the attack.

The Russian military may believe that breaching the dam could cover their retreat from the right bank of the Dnipro River and prevent or delay Ukrainian advances across the river. [...] The Kremlin could attempt to leverage such a false-flag attack to overshadow the news of a third humiliating retreat for Russian forces, this time from western Kherson.

To flee or not to flee

In September, Meduza’s Lilia Yapparova asked Russian soldiers who have already fought in Ukraine what, in their view, awaits the people being conscripted now. The veterans painted a harrowing picture of a losing war.