ISW: Russian retreat from Kherson has begun

The Russian Army has started to withdraw its forces from the southern part of the Kherson region, writes the Institute for the Study of War in its October 21 assessment. The US think tank has been analyzing the situation at the front since the beginning of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

ISW analysts cite Ukrainian Army sources, who said the previous day that Russian forces were “fairly actively” transferring munitions, equipment, and several units from the western bank of the Dnipro to the eastern. Russia also apparently sent 2,000 mobilized soldiers to support the front line, presumably to cover the withdrawal of troops.

The ISW assessment notes that a detachment covering the withdrawal of other troops should be well-trained and professional. It cites Ukrainian sources saying Russia may have left newly mobilized soldiers on the eastern bank and transferred its most “combat-ready” units to the western bank. “Russia’s poorly trained, newly mobilized reservists are very unlikely to stand and resist a Ukrainian counterattack if Ukrainian forces choose to attack them and chase the withdrawing forces,” analysts write.

The ISW also repeats its prediction that Russia is likely planning to blow up the dam at the Kakhovska Hydropower Station in the Kherson region, in order to cover its retreat and prevent Ukrainian troops from following them deep into Kherson. Russia intends to lay the blame for blowing up the dam on Ukrainians.

“Ukraine has no material interest in blowing the dam, which could flood 80 Ukrainian cities and displace hundreds of thousands of people while damaging Ukraine’s already-tenuous electricity supply,” the assessment observes.

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• On October 19, Vladimir Putin declared martial law in the formally annexed regions of Ukraine, including Kherson. The evacuation of Kherson started the same day.
• On October 20, the Russian defense ministry reported a Ukrainian Armed Forces offensive in Kherson and the Donbas. Not long before, the new commander of the invasion of Ukraine, Sergey Surovikin, said that “the situation is not straightforward in the Kherson region,” and that he couldn’t rule out “making difficult decisions” there.