Translated material
The cost of war in Ukraine. Online October 31
The Bell continues to conduct online, dedicated to the economic consequences of the war in Ukraine, which began on February 24.
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20:48 The Ministry of Defense announced the cessation of the movement of ships along the humanitarian corridor in the Black Sea, created as part of the "grain deal", "until the situation is clarified." It is emphasized that Russia does not withdraw from the agreements, but suspends them "until the Ukrainian side accepts additional obligations not to use this route for military purposes."
20:38 Oleg Tinkov announced that he had renounced Russian citizenship. “I have officially renounced Russian citizenship! I can not see all this and be associated with Putin's fascism! I cannot see how my former compatriots kill and rob peaceful people just like that. I want to “unsee” it all, especially after what I had to go through the last 3 years. There is only one life, and it is PRICELESS. I hope more businessmen will follow me and stop working for fascism, give up their businesses and citizenship, ”he wrote on Instagram (part of the recognized extremist Meta).
Tinkov became the fifth major entrepreneur who refused a Russian passport. Earlier, Revolut founder Nikolai Storonsky, DST Global funds founder Yuri Milner, Troika Dialog founder Ruben Vardanyan, and Freedom Finance founder Timur Turlov did this.
18:27 Gap, which announced its withdrawal from Russia, continues to supply clothes to Russian stores, writes Reuters. In March, the American clothing retailer Gap announced the cessation of supplies to Russia. But Russian customs data reviewed by Reuters shows that between March 11 and July 16, Gap franchisees in Moscow received 1,585 shipments worth $5.2 million from Gap's London division.
Clothing, with the exception of luxury goods, is not subject to sanctions, but Gap in this case is breaking its promises to employees, Reuters notes.
A representative of the retailer initially denied deliveries to Russia after March 10. But later he clarified the information, noting that these were deliveries according to orders placed before March, they just went longer than usual due to longer transit through Turkey. But according to Reuters, the customs data shows that most of Gap's shipments did not go through Turkey. The retailer did not comment on this.
17:42 There is no presidential decree on the completion of partial mobilization yet. Today, Peskov, when asked whether there would be a decree on the completion of partial mobilization, replied : "We will inform you additionally." He also called on this issue to focus on the statements of the Ministry of Defense.
17:32 The Ministry of Defense announced the termination of the delivery of subpoenas. “All activities related to the conscription for military service by the military commissariats, together with the executive authorities of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation, of citizens who are in reserve, have been stopped,” the message says. The military commissariats were instructed to return to their duties as usual.
In the future, work "on recruiting the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation will be organized only by accepting volunteers and candidates for military service under the contract," the Ministry of Defense assured.
15:24 In the first three quarters of 2022, the net profit of the Euroclear depository doubled, but this happened due to the frozen shares of Russian investors, writes RBC. Since the depository cannot transfer dividends and other payments on shares to Russians due to sanctions, it is forced to invest them.
A modest income of 340 million euros was received from 120 billion euros of blocked payments, but this is more than half of the proceeds from interest income and more than a third of the total profit of the holding. In order not to distort the financial result in the future (especially given the increase in rates), Euroclear will take into account the "Russian" money separately.
Recently, investors have the opportunity to unfreeze part of the assets. What to do for this, The Bell told here .
14:15 Dmitry Peskov: Russia continues contacts with Turkey and the UN on the grain deal. But "under conditions when Russia speaks about the impossibility of guaranteeing the safety of navigation in these areas, such a deal is hardly feasible, and it takes on a different character: much more risky, dangerous and unguaranteed."
13:40 Inflation in the Eurozone in October set a new record - 10.7% after 9.9% in September, which is significantly higher than the median forecast of Bloomberg (10.3%) and WSJ (10%). GDP in the third quarter grew by 0.2% compared to the second. Another bad news is the record core inflation (excluding energy and food): 5% compared to 4.8% in September.
12:26 Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan made it clear that the grain deal can be continued without Russia: "as long as Russia acts indecisively, we will continue to act persistently in the interests of all mankind." Russia has de facto one option - returning to the pre-deal status quo and blockading Ukrainian ports by the Black Sea Fleet, whose base in Sevastopol was hit by drones on Saturday. More details - here .
12:02 Revolut founder Nick Storonsky, who has British citizenship, has renounced Russian citizenship, confirmed Forbes . In addition to him, three other billionaires of Russian origin have done so in recent months - Yuri Milner, founder of DST Global funds, Ruben Vardanyan, founder of Troika Dialog, and Timur Turlov, founder of Freedom Finance.
Recently, Ukraine imposed sanctions against the father of the billionaire, General Director of JSC Gazprom Promgaz, Nikolai Storonsky Sr.
11:47 Japanese tire manufacturer Bridgestone has decided to sell its assets in Russia to a Russian buyer. Production at the company's tire plant in Ulyanovsk was halted in March (workers continued to receive wages). Already in April, the company's products were included in the list of parallel imports. The transfer procedure will take several months, a new owner has not yet been found.
The asset is new - the plant in the Zavolzhye industrial zone was launched in 2017. The design capacity is 2 million tires per year, but it has not yet reached it, although it worked a lot for export.
11:29 According to incoming data, the attack on the energy system of Ukraine on October 31 became the most massive since the beginning of the campaign. The substation of DneproGES is also under attack.
The main thing for the night and morning:
- Wheat quotes on world exchanges jumped by almost 8% after Russia announced it was withdrawing from a grain deal in response to a surface drone attack on the Sevastopol raid. For the time being, deliveries from Ukrainian ports will continue with the approval of Turkey and without the participation of Russia. Markets are waiting for her reaction, and it looks like there are no soft options.
- Brazil's ex-president, socialist Lula Da Silva, defeated the far-right Jair Bolsonaro in the second round of elections and will take the presidency (with a break) for the third time. The name of the “South American Trumpist” Bolsonaro was associated with the failure of the anti-pandemic policy, the oppression of minorities, the destruction of the equatorial forests of the Amazon and a benevolent attitude towards Russia.
- After the purchase of Twitter by Elon Musk and the dismissal of management (whom he does not want to pay severance bonuses), the turn has come to ordinary employees. According to the WSJ, Musk is discussing further personnel policy with co-investor, former Twitter top product manager Sriram Krishnan and his legal team.
- The bill on a single digital advertising operator is stuck in the State Duma before the second reading: the document exposed too many disagreements, including in the presidential administration and the government, writes Vedomosti . The bill, which also provides for the centralized placement of private ads, has rallied the entire industry against itself - except for the beneficiary, which the participants consider the leader of Russian outdoor advertising Russ Outdoor.
- Russia will not be able to increase oil production to the OPEC + quota, and in December, with the introduction of the EU embargo, it may sink by about 9%, writes Kommersant . It's not just about the complicated logistics, big discounts and fears of secondary sanctions from the receiving parties. Technology is already beginning to show up due to sanctions.