Translated material
The cost of war in Ukraine. Online November 11
The Bell continues to conduct online, dedicated to the economic consequences of the war in Ukraine, which began on February 24.
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17:50 The Ministry of Defense clarified the number of troops deployed to the left bank of the Dnieper: over 30,000 servicemen and about 5,000 pieces of weapons and military equipment have been withdrawn. All Russian military equipment subject to repair and tangible property were also removed, the report said.
“Not a single piece of military equipment and weapons was left on the right bank. All Russian military personnel have been transferred to the left bank of the Dnieper, ”the message emphasizes.
The picture of the Russian Ministry of Defense is disputed by Ukrainian officials. Deputy head of military intelligence of Ukraine Vadym Skibitsky the night before claimed that more than half of the Russian group remained on the right bank, and the country's defense minister Oleksiy Reznikov said that a complete withdrawal of troops in two days was physically impossible.
16:24 The forecast for the growth of the EU economy in 2023 has been lowered again - to 0.3% from 1.4%. This year, GDP will grow by 3.2% with inflation of 8.5%, next year inflation will reach 6.1%. According to the forecast of the European Commission, next year the GDP of Germany, Sweden and Lithuania will decrease, most of all - Germany. The risk of a recession in the union as a whole has also increased. The main risk factor remains the war in Ukraine and the gas shortage in 2023-2024.
15:40 President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky announced a public fundraiser for a fleet of maritime combat drones. They participated in the attack on the Sevastopol raid on October 29. It is assumed that up to 100 units of unmanned boats will perform tasks previously characteristic of a "large" fleet, including the blockade of bases ("exit from the bay of Russian ships with missiles"), escort service and long-range maritime reconnaissance.
This is the revival of the long-standing concept of the "mosquito fleet" at a new technological level. Russian specialized channels indicate that it is impossible to carry out all the declared tasks only with maritime drones, but the threat is nevertheless real.
15:30 The dollar on the Moscow Exchange fell below 60 rubles for the first time since the beginning of October. After 15:00 Moscow time, the rate returned to 60.4 rubles per dollar.
14:33 The Central Bank allowed criminal liability for Meta shareholders. Today is the last day to sell them. More details in the Telegram channel The Bell.
13:10 extensively The Ministry of Defense commented on the withdrawal of troops from Kherson:
- All units completed the transfer to the left bank of the Dnieper at 5 am. There are allegedly no losses of personnel and equipment. "Not a single piece of military equipment and weapons was left on the right bank."
- APU could not disrupt the crossing. Shot down 28 HIMARS missiles aimed at her. Five more are allocated by means of electronic warfare.
- “More than twenty Ukrainian servicemen, two tanks, two self-propelled artillery mounts and three armored combat vehicles were blown up on minefields.”
12:32 Sberbank President German Gref claims that the country's economy will even withstand the ruble, which has been overstrengthened to 50 rubles against the dollar - at this rate, "there is not a single unprofitable industry." “I don’t see that this dollar rate is killing anyone. Yes, exporters would like to have even higher profits than they have, they are making good money now. But nothing terrible is happening, ”he said in an interview on Rossiya-24.
Thus, Gref entered into a dispute in absentia with First Deputy Prime Minister Andrei Belousov. Back in the summer, he called the ruble too strong at 55-60 rubles amid deflation and high interest rates. According to Belousov, "a comfortable exchange rate for our industry is from 70 to 80 rubles per dollar."
12:23 Dmitry Peskov redirected journalists to the military for extended comments on leaving Kherson. And he confirmed that the Kremlin does not consider him humiliating, and they do not regret the admission of the Kherson region to Russia.
10:16 RBC, citing sources in Rosfinmonitoring, the Central Bank and the Federal Tax Service, spoke about the large “restaurant” tax evasion scheme they disclosed. The bottom line is to accept money from customers to “foreign” terminals, followed by entanglement of the chain and, as a result, cashing out. The organizers even had a showroom in Moscow on Prospekt Mira, and cashing out took place through travel companies and large car dealerships. The participants in the scheme have not yet been disclosed, as well as its financial scope.
The main thing for the night and morning:
- Unexpectedly good US inflation data triggered a worldwide rally. In the US itself, the trading day after the publication was the best in history , growth spread to Asian markets. The losers are overconfident "bears".
- The withdrawal of Russian troops from the right bank of the Dnieper continues to be in the "fog of war", but at least the Washington Institute for the Study of War (ISW) writes that it is taking place in relative order. By Friday morning, there was information about the explosion of the Antonovsky bridge in Kherson.
- Chinese auto brands make every possible use of the actual duopoly - apart from them and Lada (30% and 40% of the market, respectively), there is nothing to trade in Russia now, writes Vedomosti . Sales per dealership are low, the fleet of warranty cars has not formed, and suppliers are raising prices and demanding expensive branding, Russian dealers complain.
- Russians who save on food from retailers need one thing - low prices, but better promo, a demonstrates NielsenIQ study . Year-on-year investments by market participants in promos in the food products group grew by 12%, and losses from sales of products with discounts in September reached 76 billion rubles.
- The United States has ceased to consider the Russian economy as a market economy, which will allow the United States to more easily apply various anti-dumping measures to Russian exports. The Russian market economy was recognized as early as Putin's first term, in 2002.
- Two-thirds of the world's children do not receive a school education that is competitive in the modern economy, states Kommersant the main conclusion of a comprehensive study by the Munich-based ifo Institute. It is characteristic that in Russia and North America the share of those who have not mastered basic skills is the same - 24% each. The pandemic will affect the quality of education noticeably, but not critically, but in general, the current under-education will deprive the world economy of a huge amount - $ 700 trillion, or 11.4% of all value added by the end of the century.
- A warm October in Western Europe reduced the final consumption of gas by as much as 22%, and there are signs of a conscious refusal of the population from heating. The consumption of the utility sector fell by exactly one third, industry - by 27%, and energy increased by 14%.