Where is the bottom?

Do not ask the government about it - we will have to look for it. Partial mobilization will push this

The question is not at the address

On the sidelines of the Finopolis forum, journalists asked Elvira Nabiullina a question - whether the Russian economy has passed the bottom, or it is awaiting further decline. In response, the head of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation said that "does not like to look for the bottom."

“To say that everything is behind, it would be frivolous. Therefore, you need to prepare, faster decisions that respond to any uncertainty, ”said Nabiullina. “The regulator is now observing the aggravation of the economic and geopolitical situation, so even in conservative and optimistic scenarios it is necessary to consider the scenarios of the worst development, the head of the Central Bank said.”

Indeed, the question of the depth to which the economy of the Russian Federation may descend, should not be asked Elvira Nabiullina. No matter what critics say about the actions of the Central Bank, the financial regulator coped with its tasks at this stage-no collapse of the banking system occurred, not a single large system failure in the service of payment, calculation and cash register infrastructure was detected-everything worked as a regular mode.

There was no collapse of the ruble, which in early spring promised a double drop in the course. On the contrary, the ruble has strengthened, but ... imagine the situation. If a year ago, in the fall of 2021, the dollar cost not 80 rubles, but 60, we would have taken out all the stores, people would stand in line at airports with tickets, car dealerships would not have time to sell cars. Now, please, - the dollar is 60 rubles, but we do not see any outbreak of consumer activity.

True, the “dollar for 60” was bought at the cost of a sharp reduction in consumer imports and unprecedented currency restrictions, but nothing free happens:

If you want a “dollar for 60” - be prepared for the fact that you will have nothing to buy in stores - just like there is nothing to buy in car dealerships now.

According to the European Business Association in 2022, the car market of the Russian Federation will be reduced by about 60%, showing the deepest fall in its history. For comparison: in the 2015 crisis caused by the devaluation of the ruble, sales of cars and light commercial cars fell by 36%, and in the 2009 crisis - by 50%. If you look at voluminous indicators, the situation is even worse: the average monthly sales are now different from those years. But the bulk of the sales falls on the Lada Granta car. Auto industry and car sales are the most striking example of the transformation of the industry in the format “its own, but less and more expensive”.

Inappropriate conditions

But in fact, now it makes no sense to look for the bottom for the economy, because the “structural transformation” started by the authorities does not imply growth, but a smooth immersion.

It makes no sense to look at the exchange rate or at the exchange index - a lot of deeper failure is ahead - technological.

If the “Stalinist industrialization”, which is constantly remembered by ideologists of structural transformation, was based on the advanced technologies of that time in its technical part, then the started import substitution involves the replacement of today's high -tech products of Western production less technological Russian goods. Yes, they can be used - this is how Russians use domestic cars that came to replace the imported.

But the Russians do not want to buy goods under the conditions that the business offers, according to the Nielseniq survey conducted among more than 100 top managers of Russian FMCG companies, one of the main reasons for the concern of retailers and manufacturers is the reduction of consumer income, which is immediately noted by 88% of respondents.

According to Nielseniq analysts, today 41% of consumers are looking for goods at reduced prices for savings. For 89%, the price is the main selection criterion, and 75% make a decision to buy, taking into account the discount.

The transformation of consumer habits, which retailers and manufacturers distinguish among their key risks for the period of 2023, is also associated with the trend.

So far, people do not want to rebuild consumption in the formats that the power imposes on them, the goals of the “import substitution policy” will not be achieved.

The authorities are facing a difficult choice - from whom to get the money necessary for the government to implement tasks set by political leadership. We do not know these tasks, but “to whom” - they know, do not hesitate. To solve these problems you need money. But oil and gas revenues, an eternal leap of the budget, can no longer serve as a guarantee of the implementation of bosses.

Yes, the federal budget according to the results of nine months of 2022 was executed with a surplus of 54.7 billion rubles. But, as experts of the Laboratory of Budget Policy Laboratory IPEI RANEPA, who studied the issues of budget execution for the first three quarters of 2022,

QUOTE
“... the dynamics of income slows down, and the growth of rental income is 1.4 percentage points. GDP regarding the same period of the previous year no longer compensates for the fall of non -25 percentage points. GDP.

The source of repayment of debt obligations of the central government became mainly the remains of funds in accounts for accounting for federal budget funds, primarily the funds of the Federal Tax Service. Further active use of accumulated liquidity as the main source of financing of the budget deficit creates the risks of exhaustion of sovereign reserves in the near future, which is capable of depriving the federal budget of the necessary flexibility in the event of market economic shocks. Obviously, the risks for budget stability begin to increase, and the requirements for a more stringent budget policy can be realized in 2023. ”

And pay attention to how the forecast of the growth of the economy has changed , which the Central Bank set out in the “basics of monetary policy”.

• Back in August, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation believes that people's consumption will be reduced, but it will be worthless, instead of consumer expenses, the economy will launch business investments supported by budget expenditures next year.

• But in November , the Central Bank looks differently - there will be no business investments, and there is no extra money in the budget, but the economy can only count on people's expenses, and these expenses will have to grow.

Something happened, and the financial regulator changed its position regarding the drivers of the economy. A simple answer: partial mobilization happened, which created the "situation of economic uncertainty." But what if everything is really wrong?

What if partial mobilization is not a cause of "economic uncertainty", but its consequence? The authorities realized that there would be no investment in the budget and business (why - this is a special question), and made a “step on the lead”.

“Lack of investment” in a situation of “economic decline” is, first of all, unemployment. Dismissal.

“Squeezing economics” do not need people in the same quantities as before.

And the authorities frankly do not love and is afraid of unemployment, it has not allowed it for many years. Crowds of people who have nothing to do and have nothing to lose - but we need to pay a mortgage and interest on loans ...

Partial mobilization really influenced the labor market, but how?

• "Removed from the market" possible excess labor

• “Derived from the economy” several hundred thousand “left”. And then the authorities definitely do not miss them, because all sorts of “remotely working programmers”, the necessary authorities, also continue to work for customers from the Russian Federation, as they worked. Is everyone else? - Yes, let them go, because any resident of the Russian Federation for power now is, first of all, not a “taxpayer”, but a “load on social infrastructure”

• Created a lever of pressure in the labor market in all sectors in which the government is interested. Taxes? Personal income tax is a “regional tax”, let the regions experience for it

It is noteworthy that, according to the latest studies of the Economists of the Gaidar Institute, the Russian industry encountered a serious shortage of personnel, the balance sheet of the adversity of the personnel sufficiency according to the results of October was in the “deep minus” (–30% in the balance sheet of answers), from which it follows that about a third of industry encountered this problem. The largest personnel deficiency , as indicated by employees of the laboratory of the market polls of the Gaidar Institute in their report , “was recorded

• at light industry enterprises (–70%),

• in mechanical engineering (–35%)

• and in food industries (–25%).

The previous drop in the assessment of the sufficiency of personnel (-26%) took place in February of this year.

Another drop in assessments is in 2007 (–27%). Thus, according to industry representatives, the current level of security of the industry has turned out to be the lowest during the entire time of the situation of the institute, that is, over the past 30 years - since 1993. ”

Assessing the consequences of the lack of personnel, the industrialists called the impossibility of increasing the volume of output even in the context of a possible increase in demand as its main threat. This was stated by 48% of respondents, over the year this figure grew by 15 percentage points. Another 30% said that lack of hands would affect the quality of their goods, 22% fears that in the near future they will have to reduce the volume of production even relative to the current level. However, 33% of respondents said that they see the main consequence of the shortage of personnel the need for a more intensive search for new employees and consider this task quite feasible.

What is important here is to stabilize and decrease the production of goods will mean their deficit, and deficiency is a price increase. And yet - if enterprises planned to expand the hires of employees - this desire would be expressed in the growth of salaries and income of people - and we are not observing this, there is no real income. Most likely, enterprises will go along a different path - increase the load on employees

So if someone thinks that the growth of consumer expenses that the government counts on should be due to the growth of people's income, then this is not necessary! The government can create conditions in which people will be forced to abandon the “savings model of behavior” and “go shopping”, and not to buy at all on the conditions they counted on. So far, the situation allows people to cling to their “consumer habits”, but what can prevent the authorities from clicking on people stronger? Nothing.

There are actually not many sources of money in power -

• This is raw material export,

• These are funds of large capital (and power and truly large capital in our conditions is the same thing),

• These are people's income.

If raw materials exports will not help the budget, and the authorities will not want to spend their funds, it remains only to take funds from people. And this is not a government, but we will look for - where the economy has a bottom.