Sledgehammer named after Prigozhin

PMCs and other armed gangs have already begun to replace the state in Russia. This is a direct path to the civil war

The war with Ukraine does not just carry the lives of thousands of people, burns huge material resources, destroys the connections between Russia and the world and destroys the moral values ​​of Russians. The way Putin and his government are waging this war is laid - and has already laid - the foundation for the future civil war. It will begin in a year or in two - it is not so important. It is important that every day it is becoming more and more inevitable.

But first - is a civil war possible in Russia? It is impossible, if you imagine something like a civil war of 1918-1922, when the Russian Empire broke up into dozens of state or quasi-state formations. Now Russia is extremely united in ethnic and linguistic terms. Minorities are in total a small percentage of the population. The Chechen Republic has a chance of independent existence. But even the separation of Chechnya - or a war for such a branch - will not be a full -fledged civil war. Just because all Chechnya is 1% of the population of Russia.

Yes, the Civil War “Region against the region” in modern Russia is practically impossible. However, a civil war of a different type is possible -

Such as was conducted in the 1990s in Krasnoyarsk and Yekaterinburg, Kemerovo and Nefteyugansk. Between various gangs and private and state law enforcement agencies. For access to financial flows of industrial and resource assets. Only this time, unlike the 1990s, much more people with military experience will participate in the war. And they will be armed much better.

However, a sharp increase in the number of people with military experience and the number of combat weapons among citizens is not the only factor pushing to war. It is even more important - this is the collapse of state institutions, which is observed now: the emergence of private armies withdrawn from the system of the Ministry of Defense, the participation of the FSB, the police and the courts in political repressions - including in illegal even according to current Russian laws, the creation of armed groups, formally and really subordinate to the regional authorities, etc.

All this will be superimposed on the spread of unsatisfied promises - both material and “moral”. Armed people will try to capture the Office of Gazprom, not only because they have weapons and experience, but also because they will not receive early pensions, disability benefits, or even just respect and honor. The economic crisis, which replaced the ten-year stagnation, is just beginning, but, of course, at some point generous pensions and benefits of the former military will have to stop paying. And not to pay armed people is dangerous.

The first, while verbal, shots in this war are already heard. Last week, many media quoted the answers of Evgeny Prigozhin, the founder and head of the PMC Wagner, who is now conducting military operations in the Donbass. The question asked by the producer of the state company RT sounded like this: “In your opinion, what is the reason that the richest people of the country ignore the military situation, and sometimes help the opposite side?” Prigozhin’s answer: “The reason is impunity. The levers and mechanisms of the total “destruction” of these people as businessmen should be included. Stalin's repressions are urgently needed in relation to them ”( Prigozhin himself is already setting an example: recently, a telegram channel affected by the Wagner PMC published a video of the brutal execution of the prisoner Evgeny Nuzhin using a sledgehammer - approx. Ed.)

The richest people in Russia are not only a few oligarchs who remained from the 1990s. It is also the close -closely Putin, the leadership of the largest state corporations - Gazprom, Rosneft, Rostec, Sberbank. Of course, the words of Prigozhin - so far these are just words. But, when the war ends and budget money finances of military operations, Wagner and other PMCs will end with a completely natural contender for monitoring financial flows.

It would seem, what should the state’s response to the claims of the former military to control financial and industrial flows or assets? A man with weapons in his hands, taking someone else's property - private or state - is a criminal. Law enforcement agencies should deal with him.

But this is another consequence of the war - there will be no law enforcement agencies that can cope with the unions of offended military and private armies. The Russian Guard is partially defeated, partially demoralized. The reputation of the FSB was undermined both in the eyes of the elite, and in the eyes of citizens-it is worse than the reputation of the Soviet KGB in 1991. And much worse. No special services can rely on strength for a long time-when there is no money for high salaries, it will stop working as it stopped working in the 1980s. As in the 1990s, police officers, Rosgvardists, special services will simply become participants in the redistribution of property along with the military and crime.

Three terms of the future civil war are unrealizable promises, private armies and the collapse of law enforcement agencies. And all three have already been prepared by Putin.