Translated material
The cost of war in Ukraine. Online December 1
The Bell continues to conduct online, dedicated to the economic consequences of the war in Ukraine, which began on February 24.
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21:25 Following the change of leadership at the Russian Post, it became known about the possible resignation of the CEO of Alrosa, the world's largest diamond miner, Sergey Ivanov. According to RBC , this is a personal decision of a top manager, which is associated with the intention to "work in private business."
20:16 Russia and Ukraine again exchanged prisoners according to the 50-50 formula. “We are returning the defenders of Mariupol and Azovstal, we are returning prisoners who were in Yelenovka, wounded in battles in the Donetsk, Lugansk, Zaporozhye directions,” wrote Andriy Yermak, head of the Office of the President of Ukraine .
17:30 RBC learned that instead of Maxim Akimov, Russian Post will be headed by Mikhail Volkov, who is currently heading the National Lottery, and the government directive has already been signed.
- A Bell source close to Akimov claims that he resigned himself for personal reasons a few months ago, but another candidate has been looking for his place for a long time. The long search for a successor is also confirmed by RBC. One of the retired candidates, the publication calls adviser Akimov and member of the board of Russian Post, managing director of Volga-Dnepr airline Alexei Skatin, who built logistics and e-commerce in the state-owned company.
- Deputy Prime Minister for Digital Economy in the government of Dmitry Medvedev, Maxim Akimov was appointed CEO of Russian Post in 2020, replacing Nikolai Podguzov.
- At the end of October, Kommersant wrote that the government was not satisfied with the financial results of Post, whose loss is growing faster than revenue. The newspaper called Volkov the most likely replacement: 48.5% of the National Lottery belongs to VTB, which is a co-owner of Post Bank, the rest belongs to the president of the International Boxing Federation, Umar Kremlev. Who the Kremlin is and how he, together with VTB, rebuilt the Russian lottery and gambling market for himself, is the subject of a large investigation by The Bell .
- Volkov is a banker by profession. Since the beginning of the 2000s, he has held senior positions, first at Alfa-Bank, and then at VTB (from 2016 to 2017 - Senior Vice President of the State Bank). He is also not a stranger to Russian Post - since 2017 he has been Deputy General Director for Operations and Retail. According to Kommersant, it was under his influence that the state-owned company recently broke off relations with the competitor of the National Lottery, the largest distributor of Stoloto lotteries.
16:26 The shares of the ruble and the dollar in export calculations are almost equal, follows from the Central Bank's Financial Stability Review.
- The share of the dollar over the nine months to the end of September decreased from 52% to 34%, the share of the ruble increased from 12.3% to 32.4%. The yuan now accounts for 14% of settlements (0.4%), the euro - 19% (35%).
- The share of currencies of friendly countries in export settlements in September reached 46.6% (in March - 14.5%), in the exchange currency market - 26.5% (3.2%).
- Citizens sold foreign currency when the ruble weakened and bought when it strengthened. In general, since the beginning of the year, individuals have purchased US dollars and euros worth 230.1 billion rubles on the exchange and over-the-counter markets.
- In the phase of ruble depreciation after the start of the war (February 24 to April 10), net sales of foreign currency reached 539.9 billion rubles. After the announcement of mobilization (from September 20 to October 13), the Russians sold currencies worth 65 billion rubles (net sales in the largest banks - 178.7 billion rubles, net purchases on the Moscow Exchange - 113.8 billion rubles).
16:03 Ex-senator Magomed Magomedov was sentenced to 18 years in prison, his brother Ziyavudin to 19 years for embezzling 11 billion rubles of budget funds. The plot of the case of the co-owners of Summa at the stage of arraignment can be recalled here . All episodes of the case were described in detail by The Bell.
15:09 The Wall Street Journal has learned that the ceiling of the price of Russian oil at $60 per barrel is not just being discussed in the EU. This level was recommended to all 27 member countries by the European Commission, which considers consensus achievable, the newspaper writes.
The MMI Telegram channel considers $60 per barrel to be a “more or less acceptable” level for the Russian budget, $45–50 is critical. In November, the price of Urals was at $66.47 per barrel, which means a 27% discount to Brent.
14:42 A regular survey of Americans by the Reagan Foundation and the Institute showed that those surveyed are aware of the risk of an escalation of the conflict, but support financial and military assistance to Ukraine, writes The Wall Street Journal.
- 82% of respondents perceive Russia as an enemy. This is the highest in the history of the survey, last year it was 65%.
- 76% of respondents consider Ukraine an ally (last year - 49%), 67% are concerned about Russia's military victory.
- 57% believe that the US should continue to support Ukraine, and only 33% that the US has already done enough and should direct funds to domestic problems.
- 72% support US commitments under Article 5 of the NATO Charter (defined in the poll as a commitment to go to war if Russia attacks a US ally in Europe).
- 75% consider China an enemy (65% last year). According to 43% of respondents, it is China that is the main threat to the United States. However, the proportion of those who consider Russia the main enemy doubled over the year - to 31% from 14%.
13:13 After reports of the upcoming nationalization of Lukoil's ISAB refinery in Sicily (the decision was supposed to be today), the Russian company decided to resume negotiations on the sale of the plant with the American Crossbridge Energy Partners. Previously, the Russian company had doubts about the solvency of Crossbridge.
According to the FT, trader Vitol will finance the deal, with Lukoil insisting on closing it just a couple of days before the December 5 EU oil embargo. The transaction price will be 1-1.5 billion euros. The fallback option is to sell to a Trafigura trader, according to the FT.
Italy is expected to receive a "golden share" in the Swiss company through which the venture is run. The government of Georgia Meloni does not like the rush to the deal, the newspaper writes: it requires guarantees for the preservation of the workforce and the structure of the company, as well as current financing (about 1 billion euros), hampered by the refusal of banks to work with Lukoil.
ISAB is the largest refinery in Italy, providing 20% of the country's oil refining. The refinery is focused on the now problematic supply of Russian oil by sea, nationalization (or sale) will provide alternative access to raw materials.
9:56 According to S&P Global, the manufacturing PMI in Russia rose to 53.2 in November from 50.7 in October, the highest in five years. It is driven by domestic demand (with export orders continuing to decline for the tenth month) and a slight increase, or even decrease, in commodity prices.
9:35 SberCIB has calculated that financing the budget deficit in 2023 alone can increase inflation by 3.9-4.5 percentage points, in which case the Central Bank will have to start raising the rate, writes RBC. In fact, analysts point to the risks of emission: with oil at $70, the money supply may increase by 4.9%-5.6%, and with oil at $40, by 8.9-9.6%. However, the Central Bank will be able to fend off the money supply factor with a tight monetary policy, they admit.
The main thing for the night and morning:
- Kommersant learned the details of the inspection at the Toyota Motor plant in St. Petersburg. According to the newspaper, the deputy prosecutor of the city Petr Zaburko ordered to hold it right on the day of the event. He instructed to assess how the company complies with tax, labor laws, as well as legislation on import substitution, joint-stock companies, technical regulation and industrial safety. A large-scale audit involving special forces, tax officials, specialists from Almaz-Antey and FSUE NAMI (which had previously tried to buy out the assets of auto giants leaving Russia) began yesterday and may last until the end of the month. Company managers do not understand the reasons for what is happening, Kommersant sources say. The publication writes that the check "is like an estimate for a sale." And if any violations are revealed during it, this will obviously affect the value of the asset.
- Elon Musk reconciled with Tim Cook. After meeting with him, the billionaire said that the information about Apple's intentions to remove Twitter from the App Store was a misunderstanding that was resolved. "Tim made it clear that Apple never considered this possibility," Musk wrote. We talked about Musk's claims against Apple here .
- this announced One of the largest crypto exchanges in the world, Kraken, will lay off about 30% of its employees (1,100 people), its co-founder and CEO Jesse Powell . He explained this move by the need to “survive the crypto winter” and “adapt to current market conditions.” The crisis in the crypto market intensified after the collapse of Sam Bankman-Fried's FTX, which we talked about here .
- The beginning of the "special operation" and then the announcement of mobilization pushed the Russians to learn foreign languages. In the spring, there was a significant increase in demand for tutors in Hebrew (+206%), Georgian (+198%), Serbian (+184%), Chinese (+109%), Bulgarian (+70%), Turkish (+55%) and Armenian (+29%) languages, RBC reports citing data from the Profi service. In autumn, the services of teachers of Serbian (221%), Turkish (69%), Hebrew (68%), Armenian (60%), Georgian (51%), Bulgarian (50%) and Chinese (15%) languages began to be in great demand. The data indirectly indicate the scale of emigration and the countries to which Russians leave.
- Cyprus was one of the last in the European Union to refuse to issue tourist visas to Russians under the old conditions: from December 1, a visa will cost 80 euros, for children from six to 12 years old - 40 euros. Previously, Russians could apply for a tourist visa to Cyprus for free.