Translated material
The cost of war in Ukraine. Online December 8
The Bell continues to conduct online, dedicated to the economic consequences of the war in Ukraine, which began on February 24.
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20:35 Norway has introduced a price ceiling for Russian crude oil of $60 per barrel in accordance with the decision of the EU and G7 countries.
19:58 EU countries intend to replenish the European Peace Fund (EPF) for the supply of weapons for €2 billion, said . Bloomberg interlocutors familiar with the discussions
Now the fund has €6 billion. With these funds, the EU compensates governments for the cost of arms supplies to Ukraine, and is also used to support other countries.
According to Bloomberg, EU foreign ministers may sign a document to increase the size of the fund at a meeting in Brussels on December 12. This will require a unanimous decision. Later, the fund may be replenished even more, the sources said.
17:00 The EU has agreed to include Croatia in the Schengen area from the beginning of 2023. Applications from Romania and Bulgaria were rejected due to Austria's refusal. Now, for trips to Croatia, Russians are issued a 90-day national visa, which can also enter Bulgaria, Romania and Cyprus.
16:10 American basketball player Britney Griner (already transferred to a Mordovian colony) will be exchanged for Russian arms dealer Viktor Bout, reported CNN . Exchange contacts between the US State Department and the Russian Foreign Ministry have been going on since the summer, but it was assumed that two Americans, Paul Whelan and Britney Griner, would be exchanged for Bout.
UPD The Russian Foreign Ministry reported that Bout is already at home.
UPD2 Joe Biden said that the United States will continue to seek the release of Whelan.
14:54 Energy trader Trafigura expects a "giant" flow of LNG to Europe from 2023 in the face of reduced Russian supplies. This means maintaining competitive prices - that is, higher than other buyers - all next year and next winter.
14:20 The Financial Times, citing "advisor to the government of Ukraine on defense issues," wrote about the third version of the attack on Russian strategic airfields on December 5. Allegedly, inertial guidance drones developed in Ukraine in a public-private partnership were used. So far, no such work has been known.
Why is it important
- Close to the official version of the attack with the use of Soviet unmanned reconnaissance aircraft Tu-141, where instead of a camera a warhead was installed. In the release of the Ministry of Defense, the type was called it, but it was said about "an attempt to strike with Soviet-made jet unmanned aerial vehicles." The day before, this version was confirmed by Politico, and one of its sources said that the surprise factor was lost and success from the next strike could not be expected. After the strikes, the bombers were dispersed . The main “plus” of this version for Russia is that there are obviously few Tu-141s, especially those suitable for use, in Ukraine.
- An alternative version was considered to be a hit by a new Ukrainian Ukroboronprom drone with a range of up to 1000 km and with a warhead of 75 kg. Information about the completion of its development appeared just last week. There is little information about him - it is not even known whether he is jet or piston.
- The third option - a drone with inertial guidance that does not depend on satellite navigation and is not subject to its suppression - is known only from the FT publication. If the words of the newspaper source are not disinformation, this is a serious threat: the source of the publication speaks of a sufficient release rate and range to hit targets in Siberia - that is, at least 2000 km. Thus, Ukraine may have an imperfect, but analogue of the "Caliber".
What arguments
The main argument against the Tu-141 is the minor damage to both air bases and Russian bombers. Given the transonic speed and five-ton mass of this device, it should have been noticeably larger. On the other hand, the Ministry of Defense reported that both devices were shot down on approach, so that the defeat could have been caused by flying debris.
Versions of the inertial drone do not match the reports of their guidance by a sabotage group.
12:22 On Friday, negotiations with the Russian delegation will be held in Ankara, during which Turkey will request a discount of more than 25% on Russian gas, learned Bloomberg . From Russia, although not only discounts in 2023, but also retroactively for part of 2022. If the discount does not pass, the Turkish side will try to achieve delays until the beginning of 2024.
Half of the gas consumed by Turkey it receives from Russia. This year, the total bill has doubled and will reach $100 billion. Turkey's request for gas discounts and deferrals from Gazprom was announced back in October by the country's Finance Minister Nureddin Nebati . This will allow the country to support the lira and national finances in general in 2023: the country is facing presidential elections, which are long-term President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
The latest chapter in Russia's energy relationship with Turkey is the idea of a gas hub on the border with Europe, proposed by Vladimir Putin and backed by Erdogan. Why it is doubtful, we told here .
11:32 Hungary again - as with the approval of the oil embargo - uses the right of veto in the EU to knock out advantages for itself, writes FT. The day before, the representative of the country voted against a package of assistance to Ukraine for 18 billion euros, and Hungary is also sabotaging the ninth package of sanctions against Russia. The point is the pandemic aid package for Hungary itself for 5.8 billion euros, which Brussels is in no hurry to approve.
10:20 Uralchem has asked for the consent of the government commission on foreign investment to buy Russian assets of grain traders Cargill and Viterra, writes Kommersant . Uralchem CEO Dmitry Konyaev wrote to President Putin that traders would stop working in 2023, the publication learned. None of the companies announced their withdrawal from Russia before, both of them denied it now. So far, foreign grain traders are not being driven from Russia, but it is possible that Uralchem needed permission in the future, the publication notes.
9:22 The West is blaming Turkey for the tanker traffic jam at the entrance to the Bosporus from the Black Sea, has learned the Financial Times . All but one of the more than twenty stranded tankers are loaded with Kazakh oil, which in any case does not fall under the price ceiling for Russian.
Turkey cites that the price ceiling has increased the risk of uninsured tankers in its waters and requires additional spill and collision insurance for all tankers passing through the straits. The problem was discussed with Turkish officials this week by US sanctions emissary, Deputy Treasury Secretary Valli Adeyemo. Now there are 26 tankers in a traffic jam with 23 million barrels of oil.
The main thing for the night and morning:
- Russian developers are thinking about building housing in Dubai: two major players at once, Pioneer and Samolet, are looking for building sites in this emirate, learned Kommersant . The purpose of this whole story is the survival of the business, while "the Moscow real estate market is in a fever," experts explain. In the Dubai market, on the contrary, demand is growing: many Russians are transferring their capital, families and businesses to this country.
- Retailers are also looking for new ways to develop their business amid the decline in the purchasing power of Russians: according to Kommersant , the chain of cheap stores Galamart is preparing to start selling products. When forming the assortment of food products, it can rely on the experience of its main competitor, the Fix Price network. True, they say that food products occupy a small share in the assortment. Experts admit that Galamart may include products in the assortment of hard discounters of a new format for itself, which the chain plans to open in Chelyabinsk, Perm and Yekaterinburg.
- The Russians began to fly much less: in the first ten months of the year, airlines served 14% fewer passengers, reports Vedomosti , citing sources familiar with the statistics of the Federal Air Transport Agency. In October, the rate of decline in air traffic accelerated to 25% yoy.
- In the third quarter, Russian oil companies managed to restore production and exports, RBC writes , citing a report from the ACRA rating agency. In January-October, total oil production in Russia, including gas condensate, increased by 2.4% yoy, despite a fall in the spring. The recovery in production and exports was mainly due to the redirection of exports from Europe to Asia. For example, Rosneft increased supplies to Asia in January-September by about a third. True, Russian Urals oil this year was sold at a significant discount to Brent: in January-October it amounted to 22.4% against 4.2% in 2021. In general, world oil prices yesterday fell to a minimum this year, despite the introduction of a price ceiling and an embargo.
- Russian Ambassador to Chisinau Oleg Vasnetsov will be summoned to the Moldavian Foreign Ministry after a rocket fell in the border town of Briceni. This is the second missile that hit the territory of Moldova. The first fell at the end of October near the village of Naslavcha, the second - on December 5 near the city of Brichany near the border with Ukraine. Previously, it was identified as a missile of the Ukrainian S-300 air defense system.