Translated material
The cost of war in Ukraine. Online December 10-11
The Bell continues to conduct online, dedicated to the economic consequences of the war in Ukraine, which began on February 24.
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14:57 Europe is preparing for a new influx of Ukrainians in the winter as Russia continues to inflict massive strikes on energy and water supply facilities, writes FT. “The goal of [Vladimir] Putin is to provoke a refugee crisis and put even more pressure on us,” says EU Home Affairs Commissioner Ylva Johansson. At the same time, Europe is recording the strongest influx of migrants from North Africa, the Middle East and Asia since the migration crisis of 2015-2016.
The difficulties caused by the cumulative pressure of all mass movements, coupled with the growing influence of right-wing parties in several EU states (for example, Italy), have again put the issue of migration at the top of the political agenda and exacerbated the controversy. In addition, inflation and pressure on the budget make Europeans "feel tired" to replace the warm welcome of refugees from Ukraine after 10 months of war, the newspaper explains.
According to the FT, from January to September, Ukrainians filed 4.4 million applications for temporary protection in the EU, while about a hundred thousand returned. At the same time, the EU countries, Norway, Switzerland, Iceland and Liechtenstein received 680,640 asylum applications from citizens of Syria, Afghanistan and other countries in Africa and Asia, which, according to official estimates, is up 54% in annual terms.
Now the number of arrivals only slightly exceeds the number of those returning to Ukraine, but the EU is preparing for contingencies. “If we see millions of people coming in winter, of course it will be a huge problem, but I think we can manage,” Johansson emphasizes. Nevertheless, further migration from Ukraine will require European countries to better distribute refugees in order to reduce the burden on local authorities, the FT notes.
14:11 Sergei Kiriyenko held a closed meeting with PR specialists from government agencies and ministries to talk about the long-term information war "for the minds" of all ages, learned The Wall Street Journal . The newspaper called the speech of the first deputy head of the presidential administration a unique opportunity to reveal the efforts of the Russian Federation inside the country to strengthen support for its war in Ukraine.
According to the WSJ, the private seminar took place on August 30th. Its organizer was ANO Dialog close to the Kremlin. The event took place on the campus of Sberbank in the Moscow region, the purpose of the event is to teach officials how to improve promotion in social networks as part of public relations, follows from a copy of the seminar program. The participants of the meeting confirmed the authenticity of the recording of Kiriyenko's speech to the newspaper.
- “The main war that is now going on is the war for the minds of people,” the WSJ quotes from Kiriyenko’s speech. “All of us in this room are special forces waging this war.”
- The main target audience for impact, Kiriyenko continues, should be schoolchildren and kindergarteners: “If you think about it, there are 18 million schoolchildren in our country alone. Imagine that in addition there are their parents.
- Propaganda should also reach out to the "older generation" and go beyond the conflict in Ukraine. “We very much hope that the special military operation will be completed relatively quickly. But when it ends, the information war will continue. This is a colossal war,” emphasizes Kiriyenko.
- Another recommendation is to provide the public with a "continuous stream of reliable and good news." So, in the occupied part of Donbas, according to local officials, he advised "to demonstrate how what used to be shell craters have now become flower beds."
In the general Telegram channel of the seminar, there were 175 participants from at least 43 government agencies. Among them are employees of the ministries of internal affairs, education and energy, as well as the Moscow metro, the National Guard and the prison administration. Some users of the private chat created in the context of the meeting rated it rather reservedly. “After such a speech by Kiriyenko, half of the people here may quit,” one of the officials wrote. “I don’t like that he compares us to soldiers,” replies another.
The main thing for the night and morning:
- A missile attack was carried out on the occupied Melitopol. The city's Ukrainian mayor, Ivan Fedorov , wrote that Russian forces could have lost 200–300 military killed and wounded. Russian-appointed Acting Governor of the Zaporizhia Region Yevgeny Balitsky claims that a recreation center was shelled, where two civilians were killed and 10 others were injured.
- More than 1.5 million people in the Odessa region were left without electricity, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky said . Only critical infrastructure is connected. Restoring power supply could take two to three months, warned the regional authorities . They promise to turn on the light “at least for a short time” and call for maximum savings.
- A group of 12 EU countries, including Belgium, Greece, Italy and Poland, called for lowering the discussed price ceiling for Russian gas, Bloomberg reports citing sources. EU energy ministers will discuss this issue on 13 December. The group may block the agreement if its requirements are not met. The Czech Republic has previously proposed lowering the gas price ceiling from €275 to €220 per MWh.
Continued online December 11th.
19:32 The European Council approved a €18 billion assistance package for Ukraine for 2023. Next week it will be submitted to the European Parliament for consideration and, probably, finally approved. The loan will have a 10-year grace period. The goal is to provide short-term financial assistance to Ukraine by directing funds to the “urgent needs” of the country, the restoration of critical infrastructure, etc.
On Tuesday, a representative of the Hungarian authorities spoke out against aid to Ukraine for €18 billion. According to the FT, Budapest is deliberately using its veto power in the EU to knock out advantages for itself as Brussels is in no hurry to approve a €5.8 billion pandemic aid package for Hungary itself.
17:01 in Oslo took place The Nobel Peace Prize ceremony . This year, it was awarded to the Russian "Memorial" (recognized in Russia as an NGO-foreign agent and liquidated), the Ukrainian "Center for Civil Liberties" and the Belarusian lawyer Ales Byalyatsky, who is in the Minsk pre-trial detention center. The ceremony was attended by the head of Memorial, Yan Rachinsky, the head of the Ukrainian center, Oleksandra Matviychuk, and the wife of the third laureate, Natalia Pinchuk.
16:28 Banksy will sell 50 copies (prints) of his works prepared by him to help Ukrainians. One buyer will be able to purchase only one copy of the collection, called [FR]AGILE. The price of one print will be £5,000. The drawings are sold by the international charitable foundation Legacy of War. The proceeds will go, in particular, to the purchase of new ambulances, as well as gas heaters for the inhabitants of Ukraine, "experiencing a cruel winter without electricity."
14:47 Russians began to save on purchases before the New Year, reports Kommersant . According to the results of the third quarter, about 70% of consumers in Russia tried to cut costs, according to NielsenIQ data. According to forecasts by Kokoc Group (specializing in online marketing), the average check in online hypermarkets will decrease by 20%, and when buying household goods - by 16-17% year-on-year. The savings trend was also noted by retailers (M.Video-Eldorado) and restaurateurs (Tigrus).
14:06 The conflict around the “plug” of tankers that Turkey does not allow through the Bosporus and Dardanelles may be resolved soon. According to Bloomberg, Turkish authorities sent out a sample of new letters on cargo insurance after the introduction of a cap on Russian oil prices of $60 per barrel. According to a representative of one of the shipping companies familiar with the situation, Ankara's demands are similar to those already proposed by the insurance industry. This gives hope that the parties can reach an agreement in the near future.
The main thing for the night and morning:
- The United States is no longer insisting that Ukraine not strike distant targets in Russia, writes The Times, citing a Pentagon source. He noted that Washington has become less afraid of an escalation of the conflict because of this after numerous Russian missile attacks on vital Ukrainian infrastructure. The only requirement is to comply with the international laws of war and the Geneva Conventions.
- Russia has provided "unprecedented" military and technical assistance to Iran in exchange for drones, according to NBC sources at the White House. It may include the supply of modern military equipment and components, including helicopters and air defense systems. Iran is likely to start receiving Su-35 fighter jets next year, the sources admit.
- Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi refused the annual personal meeting with Vladimir Putin, which is traditionally held in December, writes Bloomberg, citing sources in the Indian leadership. The event was canceled after the Russian president threatened to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine. Relations between India and Russia remain strong, but “trumpeting friendship” may not be profitable for Modi now, the agency source explained. On Saturday, Putin announced the possibility of including a preventive disarming nuclear strike in Russia's military doctrine, as it is in the US strategy.
- Europe begins to cover frosts. Forecasters in Sweden predict temperatures in northern Scandinavia will drop to -23°C on Monday, with cold weather lasting at least 10 days. Other experts pointed to a high possibility of snow in the north and east of Scotland in the coming days, and the UK Met Office expects snow and ice in the south east of England and London from Sunday. This means the start of tests for the power systems of European states - Sweden, in particular, will have to rely on supplies from Norway, Germany and Poland to provide enough electricity, amid the shutdown of the largest reactor at the Oskarshamn nuclear power plant.